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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 18:51:19 GMT -7
We have a pinned 2024 draft and QB thread, and now that we are 10 games into the season and past the 2023 NFL trade deadline, I’ve been spending some time on another critical piece of the Cardinal’s journey towards relevancy under the new management and coaching regime. It should be clear to everyone that a decision was made for 2023 to clear dead money and contracts, be stingy with new big contracts in free agency, release or trade players not relevant to a long term plan, draft and even set game day rosters and playing time with a focus on next year. The plan has been executed. Watt and Hudson retired and related dead money dealt with immediately. Players like Byron Murphy and Zach Allen left to sign big second contracts elsewhere. DHop and Simmons released.
In free agency 2023, no big names were signed and no big contracts doled out. A few middle salary Eagles players were brought along on defense to help install the new defensive playbook. Dobbs was brought in as a known factor by some of our other new staff to install an offense that could transition mid-season to Kyler, something old immobile McCoy couldn’t do and 5th round rookie Tune wasn’t ready for. Many young, cheap special team standout type players were brought in to compete and see if they raise their games to starter level on defense. Budda’s contract was reworked to keep him on the roster and make him happy in 2023 after a rough beginning relationship, but the rework was left friendly to a parting of ways in 2024 if the relationship didn’t work out. Finally, the draft emphasized trades for 2024 capital, building the lines, and low risk high reward bets developmental players and on injured players like CB Garrett Williams.
These final 7 games will be about Kyler on offense and continued tryouts and development for young defensive players. It should also be about reducing our league leading penalties and instilling more discipline, as well as experimentation with the playbooks. I think it’s a good plan and has followed a rational path I and many others here called for beginning 9-10 months ago.
As we approach the wrap up of a 2023 most of us expected, we can begin turn our gaze to 2024, and that will start in March with the new NFL year and free agency. It will be an exciting one for us, precisely because of the 2023 plan that was implemented. I’m going to break down a few topics pertinent to our specific situation plus some general best practices when building an NFL team (in my opinion but based on well regarded data and documentation since the new rookie pay scale and cap system were implemented, modern changes in NFL rules and enforcement, and the trend towards being a QB/pass heavy league. After that, I will suggest a few early potential free agency targets that align with our roster weaknesses and needs, our cap situation, and a long term plan to get and then stay relevant.
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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 18:52:12 GMT -7
Our 2024 current roster analysis:
I’ve listed free agency year, age, some relevant PFF scores, potential cap savings and other info.
Offense:
QB1 Kyler, free agent 2029, age 26 QB2 Tune, free agent 2027, age 24 RB1 Conner, free agent 2025, age 28, PFF 82.7! RB2 Demercado, 2026, 24, PFF 72.3 RB3 Ingram, 2026, 24, PFF 64.7 WR1 Wilson, 2027, 23, PFF 69.9 WR2 Moore, 2025, 23, PFF 53.4 WR3 Pascal, 2024, 29, PFF 50.1, $1.92 million cap savings if cut WR Higgins, 2027, 23 TE1 McBride, 2026, 24, PFF 79.6 TE2 Ertz, 2024, 33, PFF 50.8, $7.55 or $10 million if cut/traded pre or post June 1 TE3 Whiteheart, 2025, 23 LT Humphries, 2025, 30, PFF 53.4, save $9 or $16 million if cut/traded, penalty/health RT Paris Johnson Jr, 2027, 22, PFF 52.5, still just a giant baby! T Beachum, 2025, 34, PFF 65 C1 Froholdt, 2025, 27, PFF 56.3 C Kramer, 2026, 25 LG Hernandez, PFF 64.4 2025, 28 (likely RG but LG rn) RG Daley, 2025, 27, PFF 42.5 G Gaines, 2027, 24 (likely LG once healthy?)
A quick look suggests a better QB2, a legit WR1, and spots on the entire Oline should be addressed. Ertz may not be the TE2 we want to go with at that price. Same for Hump but I’d keep a 30 yr old experienced LT. Big decision on re-signing Hollywood Brown…only at WR2 money for me. I’d love a legit, tall WR1 plus Wilson and Hollywood as a shifty and speedy CB 2/3 would work. We have 2 young RB’s but need to plan beyond Conner with his age and upcoming free agency after 2024. We need guards and a legit center.
Defense:
DT Lopez, 2025, 26, PFF 64.6 DE Stills, 2027, 24, PFF 65.5 Edge Gardeck, 2025, 29, PFF 77 Edge Collins, 2025, 24, PFF 75 Edge Ojulari, 2027, 21, PFF 69.9, just starting to shine Edge Cam Thomas, 2026, 23, PFF 60 Edge Dimukeje, 2025, 24, PFF 71.5 LB White, 2025, 27, PFF 59.4 LB Pappoe, 2027, 23 CB1 Garrett Williams, 2027, 22, PFF 67.8 CB Wilson, 2025, 24, PFF 45.6, can’t be a starter, young depth CB Clark, 2027, 22, PFF 47.4, showed promise then fell CB Thomas V, 2026, 23, 55.7 CB McMichael, 2025, 23 S Baker, 2025, 27, PFF 72.9, $14.6 million if cut/traded S Thompson, 2026, 25, PFF 69.2 S Chachere, 2025, 27, PFF 64.3 S Blount S Knight
I’d like to draw attention to age of the defense and number of edge/OLB, CB and safeties. These are the young guys brought in FA and draft to compete. The OLB room looks surprising solid. We clearly need Dline and everyone knows it. We have to decide if Budda is worth the money and then a new contract. LB is a need and CB desperately needs a solid vet imo. I’m impressed by what they’ve done with this young group of mostly nobodies. Excited about CB Williams, OLB Ojulari, and possibly even Stills.
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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 19:19:58 GMT -7
When considering free agency and the draft, it’s important to account for NFL salary cost and typical age curves at various positions.
Top QB’s (avg $33 million) cost twice as much than the next highest average salary position, which is WR1. WR1 is followed closely by left tackle, both around $16-18 million. Next come edge rushers, Dlinemen and CB1 which average $13-15 million. ILB, S and TE average under $10 million, then interior Oline and RB1 average $6 million. It’s important to recognize how salary drops after the best guy in a position room. For example, WR1 averages $18 million but WR2 average drops to $6 million! Think about this when considering re-signing a guy like Hollywood, who simply isn’t a WR1 but is paid $14 million.
Next you want to consider player age of players in relation to position. As we know, a good kicker can kick well to near 40. A great QB 35-40 at a high level. RB’s normally are out of tread by 28 and start declining rapidly. Young WR’s and CB’s can have huge impact by year 2 or 3 but CB’s often drop in productivity in their late 20’s. Olinemen and Dlinemen can take a few years to gain bulk, strength and experience to succeed but can last well into their 30’s.
Combine age of peak productivity and length of typical high level productivity, and put it alongside position salary cost, and it makes sense to draft some positions in the highest rounds (especially first with 5th year option) and bring in others as free agents. Draft QB’s in the first, WR’s, LT’s and edge rushers, Dlinemen and CB’s in the first few rounds. Even in the middle and late rounds. If they hit, they are more valuable when managing cap. But consider age as well. Rookie Dline and Oline may need almost all their cheap rookie contracts to get to high level play, where a WR, OLB or CB can help the team at a high level quick. This suggests free agency and cap money, bringing in 26-27 year olds at Oline and Dline might be the wiser move than the draft. And safeties and LB’s should be bought, not drafted. Finally, RB’s can be had for very cheap in middle to low draft rounds, used, and moved on from. No RB should get David Johnson contracts.
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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 19:26:27 GMT -7
Our cap situation will be good going into 2024 free agency. We have little dead money compared to typical Keim years. We have approximately $64 million in 2024 cap space, and $11 million remaining 2023 cap which can be rolled over into 2024. This is where the $75 million in 2024 cap some of us discuss comes from. We then have the potential to reach $100 million with cuts and restructures. Hump , Ertz and Baker would be the big cap cuts or trades, and many small cuts could add up as well. We will have a relatively high number to set aside for draft picks due to our large upcoming draft class. We do not have massive free agent contracts to re-sign existing players. Hollywood is the potential fairly high one that comes to mind. Regardless, we will have the money to spend for some BIG free agent names as well as solid depth. All this before our solid draft possibilities.
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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 19:34:35 GMT -7
I’m going to begin suggesting a few players we should be watching as the season draws to a close, based on the above. Everything above is just for a start to pages of future discussion. Not all of it holds for every situation. There are outliers when it comes to left tackles who make immediate impact or corners who are good at 35 yrs old. There are generational players like Adrian Peterson that might make a good case for a first round RB argument. There are Tom Brady’s taken in Round 6. Well, just one of those. Honest commenters will have different opinions on cap use and position importance…put it all out there. Add your free agent picks and discuss.
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Post by Chirpn’time on Nov 15, 2023 20:16:46 GMT -7
Tee Higgins if available over Hollywood, depending on the draft as per OL…I am not in love with any one LT option…if Monti doesn’t like what he sees, then I would be happy taking the top Guard late 1st or early 2nd round (Ohio State again)Keep Hump and Beechum and then try to get future LT in 2025 draft. The next big free agent would be Zach Sieler 6’6” 300LBs DL 28 years old a perfect age for a solid signing. Then draft edge Landon Jackson 6’7” 285LBs.
Draft a top WR early for the value of the position and try to pair Tee Higgins and Wilson…3 WRs 6’3” or taller. Several targets than can win 50/50 balls. Mack, Carter and Conner and maybe Demarcado at RB seems just fine. TE…McBride, Higgins and add a draft pick
Higgins and Sielers would be my 1st choice FA signings and draft the rest of the positions of need. A OL player within the top two rounds and do not force picking a LT. IMHO
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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 20:26:23 GMT -7
My first 2024 cap dollars are going towards the lines. 25-28 year olds who are playing well and who are still improving. These guys generally need experience and I’d rather pay for experience than waste 4 years of rookie pay scales on them than on older WR’s.
Oline: there are not a ton of Olinemen who look like they will hit free agency, but I hope we land at least one.
G/RT Mike Onwenu looks interesting as a flexible starter at guard who also has experience at both tackle positions. Still 25 years old and improving and shouldn’t be too expensive. C Conner Williams is the first of two Williams’ I’d love to see us make a run at. Still 26, he’s played well at center this season and played well as a guard before then. He won’t be cheap, probably the best free agent interior Oline player. RT Jonah Williams is the other Williams, and I’ll be watching his success the rest of this season. Did poorly at LT but really well at RT, and has what it takes to improve our run game and blocking for Kyler on designed runs and scrambles outside the pocket. If we decide to move on from DHump and shift Paris over to LT, Williams might be a good, young RT option.
Dline: unlike Oline, there are several potential Dline FA’s in 2024. However, there are also some really high potential Dlinemen in the first three rounds of the upcoming draft.
DT Chris Jones is probably the top potential free agent in the class, and I only put him here because how couldn’t I? In reality, I think he will be too big a cost for one spot. He will be 30 at the start of his next contract. DI Christian Wilkins has had a bit of an off year (for him) but would be a huge get. Still 27, 6’4” beast former first rounder. Expensive but would be great for our defense. DI Leonard Williams is getting older (30) and might be close to his downward slide in productivity, but it would be nice to get him out of Seattle. A former #6 pick.
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Post by Dry Heat on Nov 15, 2023 20:41:02 GMT -7
Tee Higgins if available over Hollywood, depending on the draft as per OL…I am not in love with any one LT option…if Monti doesn’t like what he sees, then I would be happy taking the top Guard late 1st or early 2nd round (Ohio State again)Keep Hump and Beechum and then try to get future LT in 2025 draft. The next big free agent would be Zach Sieler 6’6” 300LBs DL 28 years old a perfect age for a solid signing. Then draft edge Landon Jackson 6’7” 285LBs. Draft a top WR early for the value of the position and try to pair Tee Higgins and Wilson…3 WRs 6’3” or taller. Several targets than can win 50/50 balls. Mack, Carter and Conner and maybe Demarcado at RB seems just fine. TE…McBride, Higgins and add a draft pick Higgins and Sielers would be my 1st choice FA signings and draft the rest of the positions of need. A OL player within the top two rounds and do not force picking a LT. IMHO Tee Higgins would be a legit WR bookending Wilson but he will likely be very expensive, and at that second most expensive position but 1st or 2nd year high productivity roster position and the WR draft coming up, I’d rather try and find our 6’-3” or 6’-4” WR1 in the first or second round. Maybe even a guy like Legette in the 3rd. Legette is 6’-3”, something like 3rd in receiving yards in Div 1, and runs 22mph in uniform on TD runs…faster than T Hill!
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Post by CardsFanQC on Nov 16, 2023 6:32:10 GMT -7
DH/Mtdiesel - I do love some of your suggestions for FA. Below are some targets for Monti at key need positions.
I've loved Tee Higgins since he was a Clemson Tiger but he will be expensive. Hollywood is going to want around Chris Godwin $$ (#2 to Mike Evans) at 3 Yr. $60M and he is the BFF to KM1. However when I look at FA WR lists Hollywood in one article was listed right behind Tyler Boyd of the Bengals and only the 5th best available WR FA. Of course by the time the FA period opens up, Monti will know the Cards draft position and if MHJ or Coleman will be available at their spot then Hollywood is most likely gone. These next games for Hollywood and his connection to KM1 are critical in the evaluation of Hollywood's worth to being a Cardinal in 2024.
DL: Zach Seiler - Dolphins DT Teair Tart (TN - PFF = 69.4) as Monti probably had a hand in selecting him for the Titans roster. Justin Madubuike - Ravens as an interior DL has 9 sacks. He just turned 26 this month.
LG: Ezra Cleveland Mike Onwenu - love this selection DH.
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Post by Redbirdfan62 on Nov 16, 2023 6:42:30 GMT -7
Tee Higgins if available over Hollywood, depending on the draft as per OL…I am not in love with any one LT option…if Monti doesn’t like what he sees, then I would be happy taking the top Guard late 1st or early 2nd round (Ohio State again)Keep Hump and Beechum and then try to get future LT in 2025 draft. The next big free agent would be Zach Sieler 6’6” 300LBs DL 28 years old a perfect age for a solid signing. Then draft edge Landon Jackson 6’7” 285LBs. Draft a top WR early for the value of the position and try to pair Tee Higgins and Wilson…3 WRs 6’3” or taller. Several targets than can win 50/50 balls. Mack, Carter and Conner and maybe Demarcado at RB seems just fine. TE…McBride, Higgins and add a draft pick Higgins and Sielers would be my 1st choice FA signings and draft the rest of the positions of need. A OL player within the top two rounds and do not force picking a LT. IMHO Higgins I like when he plays but he is a number two wr and often injured guy has issues with knees and hamstrings.
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Post by Redbirdfan62 on Nov 16, 2023 7:01:50 GMT -7
What hurt the packers and Rodgers was not drafting any good wr's they can't stay healthy nor have they really had a guy other then one of the best they traded away. We need to take our shot in the draft but I am afraid we are not gonna get a shot at the best wr and that sucks. I am all in for us making a trade and go get a guy we can count on or trade up to get Harrison. I don't like the free agent wr's I rather keep Hollywood. JJ is the guy to make a splash for but we have so many needs. KM needs weapons and an oline. I think we draft with our first two picks lineman for defense or offense and a wr and keep Hollywood.
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Post by devongent on Nov 16, 2023 8:14:01 GMT -7
Higgins I like when he plays but he is a number two wr and often injured guy has issues with knees and hamstrings. Ouch!
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Post by Chirpn’time on Nov 16, 2023 16:30:30 GMT -7
Tee Higgins if available over Hollywood, depending on the draft as per OL…I am not in love with any one LT option…if Monti doesn’t like what he sees, then I would be happy taking the top Guard late 1st or early 2nd round (Ohio State again)Keep Hump and Beechum and then try to get future LT in 2025 draft. The next big free agent would be Zach Sieler 6’6” 300LBs DL 28 years old a perfect age for a solid signing. Then draft edge Landon Jackson 6’7” 285LBs. Draft a top WR early for the value of the position and try to pair Tee Higgins and Wilson…3 WRs 6’3” or taller. Several targets than can win 50/50 balls. Mack, Carter and Conner and maybe Demarcado at RB seems just fine. TE…McBride, Higgins and add a draft pick Higgins and Sielers would be my 1st choice FA signings and draft the rest of the positions of need. A OL player within the top two rounds and do not force picking a LT. IMHO Higgins I like when he plays but he is a number two wr and often injured guy has issues with knees and hamstrings. I do not think Hollywood is a #1 WR either and I would prefer paying Higgins over Brown. Higgins and Wilson and a possible WR Coleman with the first pick. With Texan’s pick if DT Newton is gone than I would consider a top Tackle and then with the second round pick target a huge edge player who can slide inside on long passing downs (Landon Jackson). If an OL wasn’t secured yet get the best Guard possible and keep Hump and Beechum.The next three picks would include CB Tampa, Rocket Sanders RB 6’2” 225 LBs, and a TE like Spann-Ford or Lachey. Later try and get DT Rudolph and LB Payton Wilson.If there was a pick left than a G or C. Sieler would give the type of leadership needed at the IDL and Higgins is a complement to Wilson and Coleman.
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Post by devongent on Nov 17, 2023 1:56:55 GMT -7
I like the prospect (as per rumor stated elsewhere) of sinking substantial financial resources into a big dominating Defensive Tackle, a top wide-out Cornerback and an experienced, dependable Left Guard. Targeting these three positions makes a whole lot of sense to me.
Names I have not at this point (players who might be released/ traded for a song).
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Post by End Zone on Nov 17, 2023 6:22:48 GMT -7
This is one of the best threads I've read in a long time. Some left-brain thinking went into Dry Heat's analyses. More please!
Like all members, I'm looking forward to finishing out 2023 on a positive arc. I've got my fingers crossed that no player under contract suffers a serious injury in the final 7 games. Please, no more ACL tears! If the Cardinals win 2-3 more games, and end with a 5-12 record, a top-10 guy in the 1st round is unlikely. Thus, my position rank order for the Draft Rounds 1-7 follows. Where I think a FA might help fast, I noted "FA." I do not have a name for the FA. I will look at that after March 1st. I appreciate that GM Ossenfort has a strategic investment plan and is sticking with it. So far, the coaching and locker room results are positive.
DL. 1st Rd. And FA. ( * Exception -- if WR Harrison Jr. is on the Draft board, I pick him. The next pick is definitely a DL/Edge )
OL. 2nd Rd.
WR. 3rd Rd.
DB. 3rd Rd.
RB. 4th-6th Rds. And FA.
PK. 7th Rd. And FA.
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