|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Nov 17, 2023 7:53:06 GMT -7
Higgins I like when he plays but he is a number two wr and often injured guy has issues with knees and hamstrings. I do not think Hollywood is a #1 WR either and I would prefer paying Higgins over Brown. Higgins and Wilson and a possible WR Coleman with the first pick. With Texan’s pick if DT Newton is gone than I would consider a top Tackle and then with the second round pick target a huge edge player who can slide inside on long passing downs (Landon Jackson). If an OL wasn’t secured yet get the best Guard possible and keep Hump and Beechum.The next three picks would include CB Tampa, Rocket Sanders RB 6’2” 225 LBs, and a TE like Spann-Ford or Lachey. Later try and get DT Rudolph and LB Payton Wilson.If there was a pick left than a G or C. Sieler would give the type of leadership needed at the IDL and Higgins is a complement to Wilson and Coleman. That is exactly my problem settling for a #2 wr to be a #1 and at least we have familiarity between Brown and KM. They barely missed on a long TD sunday.
|
|
|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Nov 17, 2023 7:55:23 GMT -7
This is one of the best threads I've read in a long time. Some left-brain thinking went into Dry Heat's analyses. More please! Like all members, I'm looking forward to finishing out 2023 on a positive arc. I've got my fingers crossed that no player under contract suffers a serious injury in the final 7 games. Please, no more ACL tears! If the Cardinals win 2-3 more games, and end with a 5-12 record, a top-10 guy in the 1st round is unlikely. Thus, my position rank order for the Draft Rounds 1-7 follows. Where I think a FA might help fast, I noted "FA." I do not have a name for the FA. I will look at that after March 1st. I appreciate that GM Ossenfort has a strategic investment plan and is sticking with it. So far, the coaching and locker room results are positive. DL. 1st Rd. And FA. ( * Exception -- if WR Harrison Jr. is on the Draft board, I pick him. The next pick is definitely a DL/Edge ) OL. 2nd Rd. WR. 3rd Rd. DB. 3rd Rd. RB. 4th-6th Rds. And FA. PK. 7th Rd. And FA. Boo Trade up and get Harrison if need be he will be the number 2 or 3 player off the board.
|
|
|
Post by Chirpn’time on Nov 17, 2023 9:19:01 GMT -7
I do not think Hollywood is a #1 WR either and I would prefer paying Higgins over Brown. Higgins and Wilson and a possible WR Coleman with the first pick. With Texan’s pick if DT Newton is gone than I would consider a top Tackle and then with the second round pick target a huge edge player who can slide inside on long passing downs (Landon Jackson). If an OL wasn’t secured yet get the best Guard possible and keep Hump and Beechum.The next three picks would include CB Tampa, Rocket Sanders RB 6’2” 225 LBs, and a TE like Spann-Ford or Lachey. Later try and get DT Rudolph and LB Payton Wilson.If there was a pick left than a G or C. Sieler would give the type of leadership needed at the IDL and Higgins is a complement to Wilson and Coleman. That is exactly my problem settling for a #2 wr to be a #1 and at least we have familiarity between Brown and KM. They barely missed on a long TD sunday. You have solid reasoning…Hollywood and K1 have good timing. I have no issues with one short WR and with Carter…ole Moore’s days may be numbered. He may have a lower round value. Cards need less short receiving options than what they currently have.
|
|
|
Post by Dry Heat on Nov 17, 2023 10:21:01 GMT -7
That is exactly my problem settling for a #2 wr to be a #1 and at least we have familiarity between Brown and KM. They barely missed on a long TD sunday. You have solid reasoning…Hollywood and K1 have good timing. I have no issues with one short WR and with Carter…ole Moore’s days may be numbered. He may have a lower round value. Cards need less short receiving options than what they currently have. The question in my opinion is what contract will Hollywood be willing to sign. He has played like a WR2 his entire career and his ceiling is reached. He’s worth $6-10 million as a higher end WR2. He’s currently getting $14 million and he is a free agent in a few months.
|
|
|
Post by Dry Heat on Nov 17, 2023 11:00:36 GMT -7
That is exactly my problem settling for a #2 wr to be a #1 and at least we have familiarity between Brown and KM. They barely missed on a long TD sunday. You have solid reasoning…Hollywood and K1 have good timing. I have no issues with one short WR and with Carter…ole Moore’s days may be numbered. He may have a lower round value. Cards need less short receiving options than what they currently have. I’m doing a deeper dive into Brown’s numbers and may change my mind depending on these next 7 games with Kyler. The truth is, we haven’t seen them play healthy together very much these two years. And despite his total 2023 numbers (and previous year’s numbers) being solidly WR2, he is 18th in receptions for a first down and has a decent 4 TD’s in a half season. I’m making a screen shot of his numbers without Kyler and will compare with his eight games (hopefully) with Kyler before making a decision on his value to this team. I’m not going to give him an extra million or two value just because he’s Kyler’s college buddy or has a cool nickname.
|
|
|
Post by End Zone on Nov 17, 2023 12:08:52 GMT -7
This is one of the best threads I've read in a long time. Some left-brain thinking went into Dry Heat's analyses. More please! Like all members, I'm looking forward to finishing out 2023 on a positive arc. I've got my fingers crossed that no player under contract suffers a serious injury in the final 7 games. Please, no more ACL tears! If the Cardinals win 2-3 more games, and end with a 5-12 record, a top-10 guy in the 1st round is unlikely. Thus, my position rank order for the Draft Rounds 1-7 follows. Where I think a FA might help fast, I noted "FA." I do not have a name for the FA. I will look at that after March 1st. I appreciate that GM Ossenfort has a strategic investment plan and is sticking with it. So far, the coaching and locker room results are positive. DL. 1st Rd. And FA. ( * Exception -- if WR Harrison Jr. is on the Draft board, I pick him. The next pick is definitely a DL/Edge ) OL. 2nd Rd. WR. 3rd Rd. DB. 3rd Rd. RB. 4th-6th Rds. And FA. PK. 7th Rd. And FA. Boo Trade up and get Harrison if need be he will be the number 2 or 3 player off the board. I made an exception in my post ( ref the * and Harrison ). I trade up in the 1st Rd for a starting QB only. When I push all my chips into the middle of the table, it's for a potential HOF QB, not for a part-time player that's on/off the field for offensive plays. I don't recall a WR playing every offensive down.
|
|
|
Post by Dry Heat on Nov 17, 2023 12:13:59 GMT -7
I covered Oline and Dline, and both positions are huge need without a ton of current likely free agents at the position. We might need to look to trades as well to land solid vets. I’d love to hear member’s FA thoughts at LG and C.
Now I’m thinking about OLB. This year’s free agency is shaping up to be a rare OLB heavy list of good players. Usually good OLB’s are re-signed or tagged, but the sheer volume of contracts coming up suggests opportunities may be there.
Thing is, our OLB room, while not having any big names, is performing pretty well, and is very young. We have FIVE edge players who currently have PFF ratings of 60 or over, and four of them are 22-24 yrs old. The other is Gardeck at 29. Are we ok here, and should we just pile the free agency money into vet DL and Oline? I think maybe yes. Improve DL and CB and our already well performing OLB rotation should get even better!
Regardless, here are some names that might be available: Josh Allen, Chase Young, Danielle Hunter, Brian Burns and Bryce Huff. These guys are all top 10 free agents on some lists. There are plenty more in the top 100.
|
|
|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Nov 17, 2023 16:28:29 GMT -7
Boo Trade up and get Harrison if need be he will be the number 2 or 3 player off the board. I made an exception in my post ( ref the * and Harrison ). I trade up in the 1st Rd for a starting QB only. When I push all my chips into the middle of the table, it's for a potential HOF QB, not for a part-time player that's on/off the field for offensive plays. I don't recall a WR playing every offensive down. You wouldn't trade up for the best player in the draft and might be taken where we took fitzgerald but this time it would cost picks unless the bottom falls out the rest of the season
|
|
|
Post by Dry Heat on Nov 17, 2023 17:14:40 GMT -7
The more I’m looking at our strengths and weaknesses, likely free agent lists and rankings, position financial values, and the strength positions in this upcoming draft, there is not much free agent cap money I want to spend on expensive offense positions. That means QB, WR and tackle. I do want to spend it on offense where you get more value and where experience and peak performance meet at more reasonable cost…guard and center.
On the defensive side, I see a lot of potential for spending on some vets where we need some, and the expensive positions are DT, DE and CB. We desperately need all. I also want to spend on the defensive positions where you get more bang for the free agent buck, ILB and S. In other words, lots of the available $75-100 million on DEFENSE.
The issue is, I don’t see a ton of Dlinemen to make a huge impact, and there will be competition for the top ones available. I expect Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins to get extended or tagged. The next guy I think I’d target is Justin Maibuke. A third rounder, 300+ pounder who has been developed by Baltimore, has improved every season by significant amounts, and right now leads the NFL at his position with 10 sacks. Only 25 yrs old. Go after him. The next guy to make a run at is the even larger Grover Stewart. 6’-4” and 315 lbs…oldish at 30 though. Not a sack or stats guy but solid. A similar guy would be 29 yr old DJ Reader, but he is one of those “great when healthy” guys. A final guy I like, who is a bit smaller, is Tennessee’s Teair Tart. Monti should have good insight on him.
The other place I’d like to drop money if available is CB, and there is exactly one CB I covet, and that CB is the Bear’s Jaylon Johnson. Only 24 and finally putting it together after some expected youth inconsistency, he’s currently sitting on an 82 PFF score. He’s allowing a ridiculously low completion rate, and has never in his career allowed higher than 60%. That’s great. And he did that when the Bears defense was incapable of creating pressure. He should be at his peak through his entire next contract, and could be a big bookend pairing with Garrett Williams for us, allowing Clark or Marco Wilson to move to slot.
Of course, the Bears have lots of money so probably won’t let him even talk to anyone else. If that happens, there are three CB vets who haven’t played great this season but should be better, and I’ll be watching their second halves of the season. Those guys are Awazie, Kristian Fulton, and Sneed.
|
|
|
Post by Dry Heat on Nov 17, 2023 17:34:09 GMT -7
WR Tee Higgins is projected to get around $25 million per year in free agency, whereas CB Johnson is projected at $17.5 million.If that’s the case, I’d rather have the guy who is only allowing a mid-40’s QBR when targeted plus one of this year’s WR rookie class with one of our first three picks than Tee Higgins and one of the top rookie CB’s.
Then get a vet Dlineman plus some of those many solid Dlinemen that look to be available in the 1st to 3rd rounds of the draft to create pressure.
|
|
|
Post by Chirpn’time on Nov 17, 2023 20:07:49 GMT -7
WR Tee Higgins is projected to get around $25 million per year in free agency, whereas CB Johnson is projected at $17.5 million.If that’s the case, I’d rather have the guy who is only allowing a mid-40’s QBR when targeted plus one of this year’s WR rookie class with one of our first three picks than Tee Higgins and one of the top rookie CB’s. Then get a vet Dlineman plus some of those many solid Dlinemen that look to be available in the 1st to 3rd rounds of the draft to create pressure. If Cam Thomas can add an additional 10-12 LBs from end of 2023 to start of 2024 he is a cheap IDL player. He plays hard and loves being in AZ, he is a California kid who wants to stay in the west. He isn’t a dominant IDL yet, but does have the body to play interior. Lopez has been a solid addition and likes the NT dirty work, Fotu is trending in the right direction and he and Thomas would complement each other in rotation depending on down and distance. That give three IDL plus one of the vets currently on the team. If Cards go IDL in 1st or 2nd round with options above that is 5 IDL players who should provide close to the depth to make an significant upgrade. I really like Randolph who is a late 3rd to a 4th round projection and he has complimented Newton very well and is bigger add him with an earlt round IDL and the 6 IDL for depth is complete. As I mentioned previously Landon Jackson would be a great big edge player who could move to IDL on passing downs. The Bengals have two huge DEs on their four man front and they eat space, great at run defense and are always problems in the pass protection. They have injury issues currently that really hurt their defense. Cards with the combo of Collins and BJ complement each other at their OLB position. So add a huge edge guy on the other-side that Dimukeje can share reps with. The Fifth OLB could be Gardeck with very limited snaps and more ST snaps. No need to throw out all the ingredients…instead relocate Thomas and add 2-3 in the draft. No doubt that Cards should take a top WR in the 1st round and then later in 4-5th round there are a few good TE options in this draft. With Carter if he is anything like he should be…then Moore is expendable and need to reach for a RB early is of less need. Mack may be available next year as well. A FA CB may be the wise choice as well as a IDL like Sieler. As far as OL, I mentioned before there is the option of going with a top guard if the right tackle can not be found and keep hump another year with Beechum as the swing tackle. Also, Gaines should good in 2024. One early OL player within the 1st two rounds. Round 1-2 WR, DL, OL. JG should be able to find a FA CB or a mid round option. One vet CB is better than most rookies…no matter how well they are projected. If it shakes out Brown is resigned…I have no issue with that as long as Moore is moved, two short receivers isn’t working.
|
|
|
Post by Dry Heat on Nov 17, 2023 23:41:57 GMT -7
This is one of the best threads I've read in a long time. Some left-brain thinking went into Dry Heat's analyses. More please! Like all members, I'm looking forward to finishing out 2023 on a positive arc. I've got my fingers crossed that no player under contract suffers a serious injury in the final 7 games. Please, no more ACL tears! If the Cardinals win 2-3 more games, and end with a 5-12 record, a top-10 guy in the 1st round is unlikely. Thus, my position rank order for the Draft Rounds 1-7 follows. Where I think a FA might help fast, I noted "FA." I do not have a name for the FA. I will look at that after March 1st. I appreciate that GM Ossenfort has a strategic investment plan and is sticking with it. So far, the coaching and locker room results are positive. DL. 1st Rd. And FA. ( * Exception -- if WR Harrison Jr. is on the Draft board, I pick him. The next pick is definitely a DL/Edge ) OL. 2nd Rd. WR. 3rd Rd. DB. 3rd Rd. RB. 4th-6th Rds. And FA. PK. 7th Rd. And FA. Fotu has been terrible four years straight now, and is a free agent in 7 games. I’m encouraged by Stills and Lopez but need to see more. Not sure about Cam Thomas as IDL but he is the odd man out performance wise off the edge so maybe. Otherwise he may be cut.
|
|
|
Post by devongent on Nov 18, 2023 2:00:41 GMT -7
The question in my opinion is what contract will Hollywood be willing to sign. He has played like a WR2 his entire career and his ceiling is reached. He’s worth $6-10 million as a higher end WR2. He’s currently getting $14 million and he is a free agent in a few months. Will there be any team out there willing to offer him north of $14M (or $10M for that matter)? With all the WR talent on offer in the draft this year then I doubt it. If his ceiling is deemed 'a good WR2' then staying at the Cardinals will be an attractive option for Brown, he has a connection with the QB, which is a huge consideration for any receiver. Should he show up well over the remaining games then in my estimation the FO will make him 'a good offer' and he signs the deal.
|
|
|
Post by devongent on Nov 18, 2023 2:10:33 GMT -7
Thing is, our OLB room, while not having any big names, is performing pretty well, and is very young. We have FIVE edge players who currently have PFF ratings of 60 or over, and four of them are 22-24 yrs old. The other is Gardeck at 29. Are we ok hereI would say we are. To my mind probably the least important position to upgrade and bolster. Not saying we are stellar at Edge, but let's give some time for our youngsters to develop and see how far each can go. I'm convinced if we upgrade the interior DL (with a more potent rushing threat) then the main knock-on benefit will be a higher performance and output from the edge.
|
|
|
Post by devongent on Nov 18, 2023 2:26:28 GMT -7
The other place I’d like to drop money if available is CB, and there is exactly one CB I covet, and that CB is the Bear’s Jaylon Johnson. Only 24 and finally putting it together after some expected youth inconsistency, he’s currently sitting on an 82 PFF score. He’s allowing a ridiculously low completion rate, and has never in his career allowed higher than 60%. That’s great. And he did that when the Bears defense was incapable of creating pressure. He should be at his peak through his entire next contract, and could be a big bookend pairing with Garrett Williams for us, allowing Clark or Marco Wilson to move to slot. Of course, the Bears have lots of money so probably won’t let him even talk to anyone else. If that happens, there are three CB vets who haven’t played great this season but should be better, and I’ll be watching their second halves of the season. Those guys are Awazie, Kristian Fulton, and Sneed. Thanks for all of this DH, I agree entirely with the logic of getting in a top CB FA to pair with Garrett Williams on the outside. I always viewed Clark as a situational slot guy (when researching him for the draft last year), who is particularly useful against smaller, fast and tricky WR's. Marco Wilson (you suspect) would relish an opportunity away from one-v-one on the outside (this season must really have shaken his confidence and self-belief) and maybe his 'home' is on the inside of the field. I don't know, but it's worth a try, especially on a low salary cost. I find it hard to sink in too much time and emotion into FA prospects as ninety percent of the time they are signed up by their current teams and we never get a chance. However, I will keep in mind and follow your four suggested players with interest.
|
|