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Post by End Zone on Apr 19, 2024 13:09:31 GMT -7
I feel that almost all the scenarios above are worth doing. Before I explain why, I want to explain how I came to this conclusion. As a portfolio manager, I get paid to do something similar to this for a living. The only difference is I make investment decisions on securities and not people. But the rationale is the same whether you're trading football players or managing millions in financial assets. The key in these analysis is always opportunity cost. For many on the board, they are concerned with missing out on MHJ. Thing is, it's not forgone conclusion we lose him if we drop to 6. But to measure opportunity cost it's really about factoring the difference in the asset you give up for what you get. With financial markets the risk premium is always compared to guaranteed rate on an asset like a 2 year treasury note. In this exercise, if you believe our target is a WR, then the opportunity cost what is going to be the projected performance difference between MHJ and someone like Odunze or Alt. Or who we'd get if we drop to 10 or 12. What also complicates this exercise isn't the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It's how well can you project how your trade partner will perform the following year. Because on paper, last year's trade with Houston was a no brainer. But Houston outperformed because Stroud exceeded everyone's expectations. Let's start with some facts this year. 1. It's likely a bunch of QBs are going early. While most may eventually be stellar, the majority aren't likely ready to roll in year one like Stroud. Caleb Wilson has the best chance to start hot, given his experience, but the rest will likely need at least a year. So anyone trading up to nab one of those guys isn't likely to do to us what Houston did last year. So trading down this year is likely a safer bet, especially since there's no elite OT/pass rusher to make a difference maker for the acquiring team. Not in year one. This means that any 2025 picks we acquire will likely not see much of a decline like we saw with our Houston trade watching our projected 12-13 pick drop to 23 this year. 2. Outside of the WRs of which there are several who are considered equal in abilities, we don't miss out on any other key talent by trading down this year. So the opportunity cost of trading down THIS YEAR is lower than in years past. MHJ is probably a sure thing, but I think Odunze, Nabors and Bowers could be as well. Given we are looking for pass catching help, one of these kids will still be there with almost all the above trade downs and there 'should' be little difference in production absent poor QB play, which it happens would affect anyone receiving threat we draft. So if we can agree on that fact, it makes this even easier to calculate. The only way we 'miss out' is if you believe our real target is an offensive tackle like Alt. 3. Patrick Surtain is a lockdown corner and Quennan Williams is above average. Both of those guys would fill positions of need for us at positions that are considered weak in this draft. Not depth wise, but lacking of elite talent. Since lockdown corners are so hard to find, Surtain has long been someone I wanted provided we can sign him long term. Consider one other point. If we made these trades and subsequently lost either of these guys, we would be getting back maximum compensation in the form of compensatory picks. Keim was good at that when he made one year prove it deals, so you absolutely have to add the compensatory pick into your calculations. Because it's a guarantee unless those guys get hurt. So in both of those potential trades, those deals are even better than they first seem. Truth is, I would do almost every single one of the above deals with one caveats: a) I would actually prefer the 2nd Giants deal to the first one because I don't think they'll improve much year one. The extra 1st and 2nd in 2025 will likely be at beginning of the rounds and that's too much to pass up. And the 70th from this year could just be used to trade up this year netting us an extra 2nd, if not get us back in the 1st round this year. The only way this doesn't work out hugely in our favor is if you believe the QB the Giants get is going to ball in year one. The only two deals I'd pass on are the Vikings and Raiders deals. The reason is the Vikings offer isn't that great, and in the Raiders case, they are closer to being one pick away and can already give the Chiefs all they can handle. That makes them the most likely to outperform as Houston did last year. If I had to choose a deal I'd choose the Denver deal with Surtain first. I'd choose the second Giants offer next. I've already stated why the second Giants deal is better but let me explain the Denver offer more. While I don't think they'd ever trade us Surtain, he is already proven, young and plays a position of need. He's also lockdown. Those guys rarely hit the market, and most times, they outperform all other players, return on investment wise, exception being QBs or elite pass rushers. They do bring more value than even offensive tackles. (If it's an absolute lockdown corner and not just an elite one) So unless you think you can't resign him, we would HAVE to do that deal. Because Surtain > any WR in this year's class - in terms of production. (unless he got hurt or just hates being a Cardinal and refuses to perform) In any other year where an elite pass rusher, CB or OT was available in the Top-5 I might not do most of these deals. This year is different. In a year where the most sure things are ALL WR's, and there are at least 3 considered elite, and at least 4 others considered almost as good, and potentially even elite, the cost of trading down this year is the lowest its been in years in terms of what we'd give up. So much so we can likely trade down and still get one of the guys we covet. Plus net extra 1st and 2nds next year. The Surtain deal would just be too much for me to pass up. To get a lockdown CB in his prime and still get the 12th pick would be a run to the podium situation for me. Because if you look at multiple mocks, some think that Odunze, Bowers or Fuaga will still be there at 12. I haven't followed Fuaga much but if he's really considered good, how could you pass on an elite lockdown corner + an elite OT. I'm not saying Fuaga is elite but I do know that Odunze/Bowers are considered such. So to get Odunze/Bowers + Surtain.... plus a 3rd round compensatory if you lost Surtain. you'd be crazy not to take that deal. So it's essentially how you value MHJ vs. Surtain + Odunze/Bowers/Fuaga + a 3rd rounder www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-mock-draft-3-qbs-are-selected-in-first-3-picks-while-new-york-giants-and-new-york-jets-trade-into-top-5Excellent analysis. I was onboard until Suritan II was considered as part of a DEN trade for ARZ's #4. I like Suritan but not the next contract cost. If Suritan II is traded in 2024, his rookie contract is an easy lift at slightly more than $1M. However, the Cardinals have to factor in Suritan's the 5th year option at more than $19 million. And it's a probability that Suritan will demand a pricey contract extension from Ossenfort. If our GM hesitates, Suritan has all the power. He works for 2 years as a Cardinals CB and then takes the Free Agent route and gets his money from another team. The Cardinals then have a massive hole at CB#1. We are right back where we are now, plus the 'opportunity cost fee'. Why not take the best CB available at the Draft in 2024 and avoid the Suritan drama in 2025? See Spotrac.com for the details on Suritan II. He's going to be paid top dollar for the next contract.
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 19, 2024 16:45:58 GMT -7
I feel that almost all the scenarios above are worth doing. Before I explain why, I want to explain how I came to this conclusion. As a portfolio manager, I get paid to do something similar to this for a living. The only difference is I make investment decisions on securities and not people. But the rationale is the same whether you're trading football players or managing millions in financial assets. The key in these analysis is always opportunity cost. For many on the board, they are concerned with missing out on MHJ. Thing is, it's not forgone conclusion we lose him if we drop to 6. But to measure opportunity cost it's really about factoring the difference in the asset you give up for what you get. With financial markets the risk premium is always compared to guaranteed rate on an asset like a 2 year treasury note. In this exercise, if you believe our target is a WR, then the opportunity cost what is going to be the projected performance difference between MHJ and someone like Odunze or Alt. Or who we'd get if we drop to 10 or 12. What also complicates this exercise isn't the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It's how well can you project how your trade partner will perform the following year. Because on paper, last year's trade with Houston was a no brainer. But Houston outperformed because Stroud exceeded everyone's expectations. Let's start with some facts this year. 1. It's likely a bunch of QBs are going early. While most may eventually be stellar, the majority aren't likely ready to roll in year one like Stroud. Caleb Wilson has the best chance to start hot, given his experience, but the rest will likely need at least a year. So anyone trading up to nab one of those guys isn't likely to do to us what Houston did last year. So trading down this year is likely a safer bet, especially since there's no elite OT/pass rusher to make a difference maker for the acquiring team. Not in year one. This means that any 2025 picks we acquire will likely not see much of a decline like we saw with our Houston trade watching our projected 12-13 pick drop to 23 this year. 2. Outside of the WRs of which there are several who are considered equal in abilities, we don't miss out on any other key talent by trading down this year. So the opportunity cost of trading down THIS YEAR is lower than in years past. MHJ is probably a sure thing, but I think Odunze, Nabors and Bowers could be as well. Given we are looking for pass catching help, one of these kids will still be there with almost all the above trade downs and there 'should' be little difference in production absent poor QB play, which it happens would affect anyone receiving threat we draft. So if we can agree on that fact, it makes this even easier to calculate. The only way we 'miss out' is if you believe our real target is an offensive tackle like Alt. 3. Patrick Surtain is a lockdown corner and Quennan Williams is above average. Both of those guys would fill positions of need for us at positions that are considered weak in this draft. Not depth wise, but lacking of elite talent. Since lockdown corners are so hard to find, Surtain has long been someone I wanted provided we can sign him long term. Consider one other point. If we made these trades and subsequently lost either of these guys, we would be getting back maximum compensation in the form of compensatory picks. Keim was good at that when he made one year prove it deals, so you absolutely have to add the compensatory pick into your calculations. Because it's a guarantee unless those guys get hurt. So in both of those potential trades, those deals are even better than they first seem. Truth is, I would do almost every single one of the above deals with one caveats: a) I would actually prefer the 2nd Giants deal to the first one because I don't think they'll improve much year one. The extra 1st and 2nd in 2025 will likely be at beginning of the rounds and that's too much to pass up. And the 70th from this year could just be used to trade up this year netting us an extra 2nd, if not get us back in the 1st round this year. The only way this doesn't work out hugely in our favor is if you believe the QB the Giants get is going to ball in year one. The only two deals I'd pass on are the Vikings and Raiders deals. The reason is the Vikings offer isn't that great, and in the Raiders case, they are closer to being one pick away and can already give the Chiefs all they can handle. That makes them the most likely to outperform as Houston did last year. If I had to choose a deal I'd choose the Denver deal with Surtain first. I'd choose the second Giants offer next. I've already stated why the second Giants deal is better but let me explain the Denver offer more. While I don't think they'd ever trade us Surtain, he is already proven, young and plays a position of need. He's also lockdown. Those guys rarely hit the market, and most times, they outperform all other players, return on investment wise, exception being QBs or elite pass rushers. They do bring more value than even offensive tackles. (If it's an absolute lockdown corner and not just an elite one) So unless you think you can't resign him, we would HAVE to do that deal. Because Surtain > any WR in this year's class - in terms of production. (unless he got hurt or just hates being a Cardinal and refuses to perform) In any other year where an elite pass rusher, CB or OT was available in the Top-5 I might not do most of these deals. This year is different. In a year where the most sure things are ALL WR's, and there are at least 3 considered elite, and at least 4 others considered almost as good, and potentially even elite, the cost of trading down this year is the lowest its been in years in terms of what we'd give up. So much so we can likely trade down and still get one of the guys we covet. Plus net extra 1st and 2nds next year. The Surtain deal would just be too much for me to pass up. To get a lockdown CB in his prime and still get the 12th pick would be a run to the podium situation for me. Because if you look at multiple mocks, some think that Odunze, Bowers or Fuaga will still be there at 12. I haven't followed Fuaga much but if he's really considered good, how could you pass on an elite lockdown corner + an elite OT. I'm not saying Fuaga is elite but I do know that Odunze/Bowers are considered such. So to get Odunze/Bowers + Surtain.... plus a 3rd round compensatory if you lost Surtain. you'd be crazy not to take that deal. So it's essentially how you value MHJ vs. Surtain + Odunze/Bowers/Fuaga + a 3rd rounder www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-mock-draft-3-qbs-are-selected-in-first-3-picks-while-new-york-giants-and-new-york-jets-trade-into-top-5Excellent analysis. I was onboard until Suritan II was considered as part of a DEN trade for ARZ's #4. I like Suritan but not the next contract cost. If Suritan II traded in 2024, his rookie contract is an easy lift at slightly more than $1M. However, the Cardinals have to factor in Suritan's the 5th year option at more than $19 million. And it's a probability that Suritan will demand a pricey contract extension from Ossenfort. If our GM hesitates, Suritan has all the power. He works for 2 years as a Cardinals CB and then takes the Free Agent route and gets his money from another team. The Cardinals then have a massive hole at CB#1. We are right back where we are now, plus the 'opportunity cost fee'. Why not take the best CB available at the Draft in 2024 and avoid the Suritan drama in 2025? See Spotrac.com for the details on Suritan II. He's going to be paid top dollar for the next contract. I would think a Surtain II trade would come with a new contract extension. They wouldn’t do it for 2 years.
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Post by End Zone on Apr 19, 2024 17:37:50 GMT -7
Excellent analysis. I was onboard until Suritan II was considered as part of a DEN trade for ARZ's #4. I like Suritan but not the next contract cost. If Suritan II traded in 2024, his rookie contract is an easy lift at slightly more than $1M. However, the Cardinals have to factor in Suritan's the 5th year option at more than $19 million. And it's a probability that Suritan will demand a pricey contract extension from Ossenfort. If our GM hesitates, Suritan has all the power. He works for 2 years as a Cardinals CB and then takes the Free Agent route and gets his money from another team. The Cardinals then have a massive hole at CB#1. We are right back where we are now, plus the 'opportunity cost fee'. Why not take the best CB available at the Draft in 2024 and avoid the Suritan drama in 2025? See Spotrac.com for the details on Suritan II. He's going to be paid top dollar for the next contract. I would think a Surtain II trade would come with a new contract extension. They wouldn’t do it for 2 years. I hear what you are saying. But, if DEN calls at the 5-min mark when ARZ is on the clock on Thursday, and offers Suritan II, a swap of picks, some Day 2 option or a high pick in 2025, there is no way to settle the numbers for Suritan's contract extension. Ossenfort is shooting in the dark, hoping Suritan is a hit and not a miss after 2025. This is the exact scenario that Keim tried to pull off with Hollywood Brown in 2022. Now Brown is gone and we're still looking for WR#1. I'm sorry, but Suritan is not part of any deal I make with DEN next Thursday. DEN wins that deal because it takes no risk and saves $19M. ARZ carries all the risk in 2025 and has to pay the going rate for a veteran CB's new contract. Maybe he's worth it. Maybe he doesn't like ARZ. Maybe....and so on.
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 20, 2024 4:39:18 GMT -7
Whoa - I missed this. Apparently - Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan (he is the NY GIANTS reporter for ESPN), the Arizona Cardinals are likely to trade pick #4 in the 2024 NFL Draft to a QB needy team in the Minnesota Vikings or New York Giants. It is suggested here that maybe Monti could get #6, #70 and a 2025 FIRST ROUND pick which could be a top 10 next year. JV Podcast discussing report from Jordan Raanan
Daboll and the Giants GM hopefully have decided Daniel Jones is not the answer and with Bill Belichick lurking in rumors for next year about the Giants HC job ... the GM/HC need to make a move or else be assured they are no longer in their positions in 2025. When Monti said Thursday when asked if he knows what he'll do at #4 ... his words were "I think I know what I want to do." Well if that means getting #70 and next years Giants 1st rounder AND IMO a better than 50/50 chance of still getting MHJ @ #6 ... that is the Home Run game winning hit. Forget the Vikings and their 2025 1st rounder which would probably be in the 20's and this years picks which do NOT get the Cards a pick in the ELITE tier in 2024.
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 20, 2024 9:01:07 GMT -7
Whoa - I missed this. Apparently - Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan (he is the NY GIANTS reporter for ESPN), the Arizona Cardinals are likely to trade pick #4 in the 2024 NFL Draft to a QB needy team in the Minnesota Vikings or New York Giants. It is suggested here that maybe Monti could get #6, #70 and a 2025 FIRST ROUND pick which could be a top 10 next year. JV Podcast discussing report from Jordan Raanan
Daboll and the Giants GM hopefully have decided Daniel Jones is not the answer and with Bill Belichick lurking in rumors for next year about the Giants HC job ... the GM/HC need to make a move or else be assured they are no longer in their positions in 2025. When Monti said Thursday when asked if he knows what he'll do at #4 ... his words were "I think I know what I want to do." Well if that means getting #70 and next years Giants 1st rounder AND IMO a better than 50/50 chance of still getting MHJ @ #6 ... that is the Home Run game winning hit. Forget the Vikings and their 2025 1st rounder which would probably be in the 20's and this years picks which do NOT get the Cards a pick in the ELITE tier in 2024. This would be an absolute no brainer. In another year I could never see a future first rounder and a 3rd rounder for a two spot move for the 4th QB. But I’ve said all last season the QB situation in the league is just awful. I asked Kyler haters for 15 better QBs in the league and never got a taker. And the drop off after Kyler was crazy. At least ten guys who shouldn’t be QB1 at all. This could lead to a huge QB tax, as there is a supply/demand issue in the 2024 NFL.
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 20, 2024 9:21:42 GMT -7
Whoa - I missed this. Apparently - Per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan (he is the NY GIANTS reporter for ESPN), the Arizona Cardinals are likely to trade pick #4 in the 2024 NFL Draft to a QB needy team in the Minnesota Vikings or New York Giants. It is suggested here that maybe Monti could get #6, #70 and a 2025 FIRST ROUND pick which could be a top 10 next year. JV Podcast discussing report from Jordan Raanan
Daboll and the Giants GM hopefully have decided Daniel Jones is not the answer and with Bill Belichick lurking in rumors for next year about the Giants HC job ... the GM/HC need to make a move or else be assured they are no longer in their positions in 2025. When Monti said Thursday when asked if he knows what he'll do at #4 ... his words were "I think I know what I want to do." Well if that means getting #70 and next years Giants 1st rounder AND IMO a better than 50/50 chance of still getting MHJ @ #6 ... that is the Home Run game winning hit. Forget the Vikings and their 2025 1st rounder which would probably be in the 20's and this years picks which do NOT get the Cards a pick in the ELITE tier in 2024. This would be an absolute no brainer. In another year I could never see a future first rounder and a 3rd rounder for a two spot move for the 4th QB. But I’ve said all last season the QB situation in the league is just awful. I asked Kyler haters for 15 better QBs in the league and never got a taker. And the drop off after Kyler was crazy. At least ten guys who shouldn’t be QB1 at all. This could lead to a huge QB tax, as there is a supply/demand issue in the 2024 NFL. Absolutely cannot do deal with Denver at last minute as extension #'s with Surtain must be certain before consummating that trade. If Monti does the deal with the Giants (#6 - #47 - 2025 2nd rounder or #6 - #70 - 2025 1st rounder), Cardinals can wait until trade deadline this year and call SP when the Broncos are 2-7 and offer the "free" 2025 2nd rounder garnered in the trade with Giants and get P. Surtain with the contract extension in hand at same time. As far as "Trader-Monti" goes, trade with Giants like the above and still getting MHJ would be terrific. Monti can also take #27 - #70 ("free" 3rd rounder from Giants) and move up ahead of the Rams with either Bengals/Jax to draft Byron Murphy Jr. and you would have the top WR and top DL in your first 2 picks. and no extra draft capital was used then you would have had at beginning of day !! BTW: iI heard Daniel Jeremiah today list his top pass rushers and had the usual 4 Edge guys but he went out of his way to state a team might consider Byron Murphy because he can get sacks from the IDL. Then depending on who is available at #35, the top of 2nd round is always good for a trade back because when teams wake up after Day 1 realizing guys high on their board have slipped into Day 2. At #33, WR Legette (from South Carolina) on social media stated he has met with the Panthers FOUR TIMES !! and depending on what they do in Rd. #1, the Pats will either need a QB or a WR badly at #34 ... which leaves Monti to take more calls for teams wanting to move up high into 2nd round @ #35 and give up 2024 draft capital for the privilege.
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Post by End Zone on Apr 21, 2024 5:03:45 GMT -7
This would be an absolute no brainer. In another year I could never see a future first rounder and a 3rd rounder for a two spot move for the 4th QB. But I’ve said all last season the QB situation in the league is just awful. I asked Kyler haters for 15 better QBs in the league and never got a taker. And the drop off after Kyler was crazy. At least ten guys who shouldn’t be QB1 at all. This could lead to a huge QB tax, as there is a supply/demand issue in the 2024 NFL. Absolutely cannot do deal with Denver at last minute as extension #'s with Surtain must be certain before consummating that trade. If Monti does the deal with the Giants (#6 - #47 - 2025 2nd rounder or #6 - #70 - 2025 1st rounder), Cardinals can wait until trade deadline this year and call SP when the Broncos are 2-7 and offer the "free" 2025 2nd rounder garnered in the trade with Giants and get P. Surtain with the contract extension in hand at same time. As far as "Trader-Monti" goes, trade with Giants like the above and still getting MHJ would be terrific. Monti can also take #27 - #70 ("free" 3rd rounder from Giants) and move up ahead of the Rams with either Bengals/Jax to draft Byron Murphy Jr. and you would have the top WR and top DL in your first 2 picks. and no extra draft capital was used then you would have had at beginning of day !! BTW: iI heard Daniel Jeremiah today list his top pass rushers and had the usual 4 Edge guys but he went out of his way to state a team might consider Byron Murphy because he can get sacks from the IDL. Then depending on who is available at #35, the top of 2nd round is always good for a trade back because when teams wake up after Day 1 realizing guys high on their board have slipped into Day 2. At #33, WR Legette (from South Carolina) on social media stated he has met with the Panthers FOUR TIMES !! and depending on what they do in Rd. #1, the Pats will either need a QB or a WR badly at #34 ... which leaves Monti to take more calls for teams wanting to move up high into 2nd round @ #35 and give up 2024 draft capital for the privilege. Concur on "NO DEAL" message DEN unless that rumored Surtain contract extension is put to bed prior to the Draft. MO has to know the CB will be around 4-5 years. I was wondering on Sunday morning what will be the forcing function that compels the Giants GM to trade up and send 2024 and 2025 picks to the Cardinals. As things stand today, the Giants only risk is that another team jumps up and trades for #4, thus denying the Giants a clear shot at Nix, McCarthy, and Penix. If the Giants wait until their number is called at #6, one of those 3 QBs will be gone--that assumes the Cardinals traded out of #4. The Cardinals and Chargers are not picking a QB. Both teams covet a #1 WR. Some really good players will fly off the Draft board in Round 2 and 3 on Friday night. The Cardinals are going to clean the floor Friday! Don't miss the show.
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Post by CardSunsCard on Apr 21, 2024 5:48:40 GMT -7
Excellent analysis. I was onboard until Suritan II was considered as part of a DEN trade for ARZ's #4. I like Suritan but not the next contract cost. If Suritan II is traded in 2024, his rookie contract is an easy lift at slightly more than $1M. However, the Cardinals have to factor in Suritan's the 5th year option at more than $19 million. And it's a probability that Suritan will demand a pricey contract extension from Ossenfort. If our GM hesitates, Suritan has all the power. He works for 2 years as a Cardinals CB and then takes the Free Agent route and gets his money from another team. The Cardinals then have a massive hole at CB#1. We are right back where we are now, plus the 'opportunity cost fee'. Why not take the best CB available at the Draft in 2024 and avoid the Suritan drama in 2025? See Spotrac.com for the details on Suritan II. He's going to be paid top dollar for the next contract. So you don't think the compensatory pick, guaranteed to be a 3rd rounder is enough insurance? (on top of everything else we'd get?) None of this year's corners are considered elite. The Iowa kid is great and offers tons of flexibility, but he's likely going to end up an All Pro safety if he stays healthy. The Clemson/Toledo kids might end up good, but they aren't sure things. And even with their metrics, I don't think either is shutdown. The last shutdown kid I recall before Surtain, worth investing in I think was Lattimore. The thing about Surtain is this. A lot of folks in love with MHJ talk about the pedigree of his name being a huge deal. Well, I could say the same thing about Surtain. And unlike MHJ, Surtain has already proven himself in the league. So he is the absolute BEST young CB in the game. The last time I saw a CB of the quality hit the market via trade was when the Rams first got Jalen Ramsey in his prime. Ramsey and Donald were the two lynchpins of that defense for years. So absent someone finding me a young pass rusher in his prime, such as Donald or Chris Jones 10 years ago, doesn't that make Surtain about the best option we have? That's a serious question. Can anyone name a single other defender, that rates that high, still under 27? That's available and top-2 at their position? I can't think of anyone. The closest thing I can think of might have been Montez Sweat but Chicago already made that deal. 19 million for a top CB isn't unreasonable given where prices are today. In fact, it's a bargain. So I happily pay the 19, and if he doesn't want to resign, franchise him, since the franchise price would be cheap relative to being forced into a bad deal. That also buys us more time to draft a lockdown corner replacement, because there isn't one available in the draft this year, unless one outperforms expectations. I think this also makes a lot of sense because it's such a deep draft at WR. So we get Surtain yet still end up with the 3rd best WR at pick 12. Odunze may still be on the board. I'm not saying I do this deal above the Giants deal if the Giants keep increasing their offer. I wouldn't. But it's absolutely crazy to stay at #4 and not trade down into several of those deals. Crazy. Especially when you consider we may still get MHJ at 5 or 6, Odunze at 12, and still may end up with an extra 1st rounder next year, which we may need for a QB if Kyler doesn't perform this year.
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Boomer
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1,452
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Post by Boomer on Apr 21, 2024 6:19:09 GMT -7
Is it reasonable to expect the Chargers to not take MHJ at #5 if he is still there?
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Post by CardSunsCard on Apr 21, 2024 6:26:34 GMT -7
Sounds like we have similar careers, except I invest in a very specific asset class that is not very liquid so the long term success is the prime variable. I’ll add two things. 1) With the Surtain trade, (or a Jefferson or Q Williams trade) we have to consider the opportunity costs of the massive contracts they would require. That is VERY significant. 2) I’ve mentioned this in other threads, but haven’t seen others acknowledge. With several first round picks in something like a Vikings trade, you both diversify your investment (reducing risk impact from one event like an injury, suspension or contract dispute) and you gain the value of cheap rookie contract years. Five cheap years of MHJ must be compared to 15 cheap years of three first round players on rookie contracts. The impact of 4-5 years of MHJ locked up in contract then must be compared to 12-15 years of say Bowers, one of the top CB’s, and a first round Dlineman we draft with the first round pick next year. The risk is diversified, and the cap space made available over the next five years is substantial. True. But rookies aren't guaranteed, so when computing opportunity cost, if you're going to go strictly analytical, you have to 'discount' potential flame outs, or a guy who ends up just being an average WR. So from an expected return standpoint, I'm going to factor at least 4-5 outcomes for MHJ, assign a return/probability score for each one, then sum it all up. Won't go further since I know you know how to do that. What I'm getting at is every single rookie can't be compared to a 'known' veteran's performance like Surtain or Bosa. With veterans, provided they aren't again vets, there's just two variables, non-injured performance expectations and an assigned probability of an injury occurring. Let me give you an example. Yesterday, I saw a draft history video on top offensive tackles drafted in an 8 year window. Forget the exact years, but it include Eric Fisher, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, Luke Joeckel, etc... Over the time period given there were 8 offensive tackles taken in the top-5. Offensive tackles taken Top-5 are usually one of the safest picks. Do you know how many of the Top-5 OT's ended up being studs? Two. That's right. Two. And that's only if you consider Eric Fisher a stud which many don't. We all know what happened with Levi Brown, but he and the others either ended up being average at best or out of the league in a few years. This is why I am so harsh on Top-5 picks, be it Kyler, MHJ, or any of them. It's fine to miss on other picks but teams can't afford to miss when they get Top-5 picks, and they can't afford to take guys who just turn out average because the contract replacement savings is lost if you end up with someone just average. Now the above isn't to point out that you should take OT because I think it's definitely easier to evaluate than say QBs, but it does go to show that folks thinking MHJ is guaranteed to save us 20 mil per year need to rethink things. There's a big jump from the college game to the NFL so no single pick is guaranteed to dominate. This also explains why I favor using multiple lower round picks to go after QBs, because the hit/miss/reward probability, ala.... Purdy/Brady is better than taking QBs in the top-5. The probability isn't as good, but when you factor the cost of the actual pick, you come out ahead using multiple lower round picks, similar to what 49ers did for years under Bill Walsh. Since QB is so important it's also why I favor signing veteran QBs and drafting the next three most expensive positions early, CB/pass rusher/OT. I admit a lot of that also has to do with me factoring the compensatory picks one gets back should you lose the CB/rusher/OT because once again, the probability of them hitting is greater. The 'cost of missing' is also why I, and I think certain coaches, prefer trading down and getting more picks. Going down the ladder my lower your pick probability somewhat, but the combined probability of hitting, with two picks instead of one, or say 3 picks instead of one, is almost always better than just using one pick. Caveat being if your GM sucks at making picks. Then of course you should just stay put at higher pick. Let me qualify last few statements. I think the most effective time to trade down is from the Top-8. Once you get past pick 10-12 performance usually drops off a bit. Sort of depends on how deep draft class is. The sweet spot, from ROI perspective are those 2-3 round picks. And unless the following year's class is expected to suck, I think a team is almost always better of trading down anytime they can get extra 1st rounders following years. There's that 'time value of money' component to consider, but so long as your not trading down with say the Chiefs, or teams expected to make playoffs the following year, you're almost always ending up ahead.
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 21, 2024 8:09:40 GMT -7
In the last 5 days, several things have happened which IMO points to a trade down with the NY Giants (remember 10 days ago I stated the Giants would start calling at beginning of this past week because Daboll/Giants GM won't have a job next year if they don't get a QB. Bill Belichick rumors have swirled about the Giants reacquainting themselves with BB if things go bad. The funny thing is the Giants GM about 10 days ago was spouting to the media how the Giants didn't need to use a draft pick in on a QB ... but since as you get closer to the draft, GM's normally mean the opposite of what they volunteer to the media.
1) Peter Schrager who has great ties into the Giants and has been correct on Cardinals more than once (not sure though if K2/SK were his sources previously) says a trade down for Cardinals and having the Giants move up to #4 is probably. In fact Shrager's first mock which he hold out until one week left so he has more information actually has this occurring. 2) ESPN’s Jordan Raanan (he is the ESPN reporter assigned to Giants) says Cardinals are LIKELY to trade down and the most likely suitor is the NY Giants. 3) 2 days ago Chad Reuter who writes for NFL.com posted his mock and has the NY Giants trading up to get McCarthy and the Cardinals going to #6. 4) Ossenfort says he "thinks I know what I want to do." I think it means one of the following four trades with the NY Giants.
So I believe the possible trades with Giants are for #4: 1) #6, #47 & #140 per this forum's poll -- (NOTE: I don't believe the Giants want to give up another 2024 pick because this doesn't help Daboll/GM get talent to help their job prospects going forward. 2) #6, #47 and 2025 2nd rounder 3) #6, #70 and 2025 1st rounder 4) New one as posted by the aforementioned Chad Reuter in his article 2 days ago - #4, #47 and 2025 2nd rounder but the Cards giving back #90.
I would be interested tomorrow what the odds are for Vikes/Pats/Giants are in draft JJ McCarthy.
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 21, 2024 9:01:09 GMT -7
In the last 5 days, several things have happened which IMO points to a trade down with the NY Giants (remember 10 days ago I stated the Giants would start calling at beginning of this past week because Daboll/Giants GM won't have a job next year if they don't get a QB. Bill Belichick rumors have swirled about the Giants reacquainting themselves with BB if things go bad. The funny thing is the Giants GM about 10 days ago was spouting to the media how the Giants didn't need to use a draft pick in on a QB ... but since as you get closer to the draft, GM's normally mean the opposite of what they volunteer to the media. 1) Peter Schrager who has great ties into the Giants and has been correct on Cardinals more than once (not sure though if K2/SK were his sources previously) says a trade down for Cardinals and having the Giants move up to #4 is probably. In fact Shrager's first mock which he hold out until one week left so he has more information actually has this occurring. 2) ESPN’s Jordan Raanan (he is the ESPN reporter assigned to Giants) says Cardinals are LIKELY to trade down and the most likely suitor is the NY Giants. 3) 2 days ago Chad Reuter who writes for NFL.com posted his mock and has the NY Giants trading up to get McCarthy and the Cardinals going to #6. 4) Ossenfort says he "thinks I know what I want to do." I think it means one of the following four trades with the NY Giants. So I believe the possible trades with Giants are for #4:1) #6, #47 & #140 per this forum's poll -- (NOTE: I don't believe the Giants want to give up another 2024 pick because this doesn't help Daboll/GM get talent to help their job prospects going forward. 2) #6, #47 and 2025 2nd rounder 3) #6, #70 and 2025 1st rounder 4) New one as posted by the aforementioned Chad Reuter in his article 2 days ago - #4, #47 and 2025 2nd rounder but the Cards giving back #90. I would be interested tomorrow what the odds are for Vikes/Pats/Giants are in draft JJ McCarthy. I’d also add the possible slip of the tongue the Chargers GM made a few days ago when he spoke about their pick at #5 being in a way “the first pick in the draft” with four QBs going ahead of them. This suggested knowledge of a Cardinals trade down solidly in the works. From the report: “In that context, Chargers general manager Joe Horitz previewed the draft in a way to raise eyebrows in the Valley. “We believe we have the first pick in the draft. I know there are going to be four picks that go before us, but we believe that. If four quarterbacks go, we believe, strongly, that we have the first pick in the draft,” Hortiz said.” I would love to see option #2 or #3 above with the Chargers then taking Alt. It would then cost us NOTHING and give us the pick of the very first guy on our draft board all the way down at pick 6. We would actually benefit from not just the extra draft picks but a cheaper rookie contract for our first pick. The difference between pick #4 and pick #6 is $1 million in 2024 cap, $6 million over the entire contract. Every bit helps.
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 21, 2024 11:15:58 GMT -7
Some more interesting trade for QB discussion today from none other than Sean Payton and the Broncos GM (George Paton): AFC Coaches - GM's talking QB's
- Sean Payton - "You'd say it sure looks like we have to draft a quarterback. It has to be the right one."
- Sean Payton - "We spent two hours one night last week studying analytics to increase our batting percentage in the draft process."
- GM George Paton when asked about trading future first rounders to move up: "If it's the player you think can change the landscape, like a quarterback, then you do what you have to"
DH already alluded to this but the link above also has the quote from Chargers GM Joe Hortiz saying "they feel they will get the first non-quarterback at pick number five and he's not interested in a fair trade to move down." Also said the pick at #5 would be collaborative but ultimately he makes the picks. P.S. The speculation on this forum in the last week on whether the Vikings have a deal in place already got some traction from the Giants beat writer Art Stapleton who sent this tweet out on Friday - key phrase: "Would imagine the Giants know a price for them as well, should Joe Schoen decide to move up from #6." Remember Monti quote - "I think I know what I want to do" which sounds like he has choice of MHJ and at least one if not 2 trade deals on the table. Tweet from NY Giant Beat Writer - "Giants know a price for them as well"
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Post by End Zone on Apr 21, 2024 15:57:45 GMT -7
Excellent analysis. I was onboard until Suritan II was considered as part of a DEN trade for ARZ's #4. I like Suritan but not the next contract cost. If Suritan II is traded in 2024, his rookie contract is an easy lift at slightly more than $1M. However, the Cardinals have to factor in Suritan's the 5th year option at more than $19 million. And it's a probability that Suritan will demand a pricey contract extension from Ossenfort. If our GM hesitates, Suritan has all the power. He works for 2 years as a Cardinals CB and then takes the Free Agent route and gets his money from another team. The Cardinals then have a massive hole at CB#1. We are right back where we are now, plus the 'opportunity cost fee'. Why not take the best CB available at the Draft in 2024 and avoid the Suritan drama in 2025? See Spotrac.com for the details on Suritan II. He's going to be paid top dollar for the next contract. So you don't think the compensatory pick, guaranteed to be a 3rd rounder is enough insurance? (on top of everything else we'd get?) None of this year's corners are considered elite. The Iowa kid is great and offers tons of flexibility, but he's likely going to end up an All Pro safety if he stays healthy. The Clemson/Toledo kids might end up good, but they aren't sure things. And even with their metrics, I don't think either is shutdown. The last shutdown kid I recall before Surtain, worth investing in I think was Lattimore. The thing about Surtain is this. A lot of folks in love with MHJ talk about the pedigree of his name being a huge deal. Well, I could say the same thing about Surtain. And unlike MHJ, Surtain has already proven himself in the league. So he is the absolute BEST young CB in the game. The last time I saw a CB of the quality hit the market via trade was when the Rams first got Jalen Ramsey in his prime. Ramsey and Donald were the two lynchpins of that defense for years. So absent someone finding me a young pass rusher in his prime, such as Donald or Chris Jones 10 years ago, doesn't that make Surtain about the best option we have? That's a serious question. Can anyone name a single other defender, that rates that high, still under 27? That's available and top-2 at their position? I can't think of anyone. The closest thing I can think of might have been Montez Sweat but Chicago already made that deal. 19 million for a top CB isn't unreasonable given where prices are today. In fact, it's a bargain. So I happily pay the 19, and if he doesn't want to resign, franchise him, since the franchise price would be cheap relative to being forced into a bad deal. That also buys us more time to draft a lockdown corner replacement, because there isn't one available in the draft this year, unless one outperforms expectations. I think this also makes a lot of sense because it's such a deep draft at WR. So we get Surtain yet still end up with the 3rd best WR at pick 12. Odunze may still be on the board. I'm not saying I do this deal above the Giants deal if the Giants keep increasing their offer. I wouldn't. But it's absolutely crazy to stay at #4 and not trade down into several of those deals. Crazy. Especially when you consider we may still get MHJ at 5 or 6, Odunze at 12, and still may end up with an extra 1st rounder next year, which we may need for a QB if Kyler doesn't perform this year. I don't disagree about Surtain's abilities. Geez, he's special. I just don't see how DEN let's him go, nor how Surtain sticks with ARZ if that trade and a contract extension is not worked out before the Draft happens. A lot has to go right in four days. I also think a good CB is out there in Rd1 or Rd2. The rookie CB might not be SURTAIN GOOD, but good enough.
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 21, 2024 16:59:00 GMT -7
So you don't think the compensatory pick, guaranteed to be a 3rd rounder is enough insurance? (on top of everything else we'd get?) None of this year's corners are considered elite. The Iowa kid is great and offers tons of flexibility, but he's likely going to end up an All Pro safety if he stays healthy. The Clemson/Toledo kids might end up good, but they aren't sure things. And even with their metrics, I don't think either is shutdown. The last shutdown kid I recall before Surtain, worth investing in I think was Lattimore. The thing about Surtain is this. A lot of folks in love with MHJ talk about the pedigree of his name being a huge deal. Well, I could say the same thing about Surtain. And unlike MHJ, Surtain has already proven himself in the league. So he is the absolute BEST young CB in the game. The last time I saw a CB of the quality hit the market via trade was when the Rams first got Jalen Ramsey in his prime. Ramsey and Donald were the two lynchpins of that defense for years. So absent someone finding me a young pass rusher in his prime, such as Donald or Chris Jones 10 years ago, doesn't that make Surtain about the best option we have? That's a serious question. Can anyone name a single other defender, that rates that high, still under 27? That's available and top-2 at their position? I can't think of anyone. The closest thing I can think of might have been Montez Sweat but Chicago already made that deal. 19 million for a top CB isn't unreasonable given where prices are today. In fact, it's a bargain. So I happily pay the 19, and if he doesn't want to resign, franchise him, since the franchise price would be cheap relative to being forced into a bad deal. That also buys us more time to draft a lockdown corner replacement, because there isn't one available in the draft this year, unless one outperforms expectations. I think this also makes a lot of sense because it's such a deep draft at WR. So we get Surtain yet still end up with the 3rd best WR at pick 12. Odunze may still be on the board. I'm not saying I do this deal above the Giants deal if the Giants keep increasing their offer. I wouldn't. But it's absolutely crazy to stay at #4 and not trade down into several of those deals. Crazy. Especially when you consider we may still get MHJ at 5 or 6, Odunze at 12, and still may end up with an extra 1st rounder next year, which we may need for a QB if Kyler doesn't perform this year. I don't disagree about Surtain's abilities. Geez, he's special. I just don't see how DEN let's him go, nor how Surtain sticks with ARZ if that trade and a contract extension is not worked out before the Draft happens. A lot has to go right in four days. I also think a good CB is out there in Rd1 or Rd2. The rookie CB might not be SURTAIN GOOD, but good enough. If I were Monti and a player nearing the end of his contract was part of a potential trade, I’d only do it if an extension had been worked out and the team had spoken to the player and their agent. I wouldn’t want any surprises when it comes to vets and contracts. If it’s Surtain II, I wouldn’t do it without a min 4 year deal in place.
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