melgray85
Pro Bowler
Didn't Your Coach Warn You?
Posts: 1,423
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Post by melgray85 on Apr 13, 2024 7:53:19 GMT -7
I thought the idea was firstly to determine the most popular trade option (elimination fight), and then put that forward against Harrison #4 (title decider). You might have entered the ring before you needed to do, hence you still have time to put your feet up before the main contest begins...! Hello Dev,
I posted NO TRADE because in a trade poll...there should be the choice to not make the trade. When I started reading some of the trade options, it turned my stomach. Ha ha ha...
I can't even bring myself to think of any trade options for our #4...
I just finally have started to accept that more than likely we will trade out of #4. If that happens, I have to accept it. And in 7 years when Marvin is still going strong with the Chargers, I will just drink plenty of beer to overcome the awful feeling of us not drafting him...
I hope we don't trade our #4 either, and instead take Harrison or at least Malik. I took this poll to mean "IF" we were to make a trade, what is it that we'd like to see. Otherwise, we have a prime opportunity to help Kyler on offense along with some good options to improve our defense......so why not start with the best WR entering the draft.
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Post by flash on Apr 13, 2024 8:28:01 GMT -7
Hello Dev,
I posted NO TRADE because in a trade poll...there should be the choice to not make the trade. When I started reading some of the trade options, it turned my stomach. Ha ha ha...
I can't even bring myself to think of any trade options for our #4...
I just finally have started to accept that more than likely we will trade out of #4. If that happens, I have to accept it. And in 7 years when Marvin is still going strong with the Chargers, I will just drink plenty of beer to overcome the awful feeling of us not drafting him...
I hope we don't trade our #4 either, and instead take Harrison or at least Malik. I took this poll to mean "IF" we were to make a trade, what is it that we'd like to see. Otherwise, we have a prime opportunity to help Kyler on offense along with some good options to improve our defense...... so why not start with the best WR entering the draft.I agree 100%....
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 13, 2024 9:14:00 GMT -7
If we had passed on Larry in 2004 and instead traded down to #11, gaining #23 and then have #27 plus the #11 team’s 2005 1st rounder, we would have been trading with the Steelers. We get Big Ben instead of Fitz. We then can get Pro Bowler RB Steven Jackson who went right around pick #23. Then Pro Bowler DE Jason Babin who went #27 that year. Finally, we get the extra Pitts pick in 2005, which happened to be Pro Bowl TE Heath Miller at pick #30. They picked that low because rookie QB Big Ben nearly took them to the Super Bowl. But since they don’t get Big Ben in 2004, they probably aren’t any better than their 2004 pick at #11. So let’s say the 2005 pick we get from the trade is #11 (Demarcus Ware), #12 (Shawne Merriman), #13 (Jamel Brown), #14 (Thomas Davis), or #15 (Derrick Johnson). Every one of those guys were Pro Bowlers. Who would you rather have? Fitz or Ben Roethlisburger, Steven Jackson and Heath Miller all under what today are cheap rookie contracts for 4-5 yrs each? If we are playing the “what if” game, let’s play it straight.Any opinions about the upcoming draft are speculation. Those opinions are mostly "ifs"? When I mentioned about Larry being mentioned on NFL Radio, that was not an if. We drafted him. And his time in Arizona is probably the most exciting of any players we have ever drafted. You mention what "if" we would have drafted Ben, Jackson and Babin. Those are 3 draft picks that we have no proof would have happened. Why did we pass on Ben? I am sure that the Draft committee had their reasons. What were their reasons? I sure as hell don't know. But, I will tell you this...I totally agree with the NFL Radio analyst on would I have not wanted Larry drafted instead of Ben. All I can say is Larry made all the losses we had, still exciting. I think the Super Bowl run is the best season we ever had as Cardinals Fans. Would I have traded for those others you mentioned? No way.
When you mention the "what if" game, that is a part of pre draft stuff. If I recall, and correct me if I am wrong...but did you not mention on a different thread that a trade with Minnesota would be acceptable to you only if they give us their 2025 first round pick? Seems that you used the "if" word there.
I already know that you are pro trade for this draft. You have your reasons and I have mine for anti trade.
D.H....I respect you because you always post your opinion. Just because we don't agree on things, does not mean I understand your logic on posts...
Respect your opinions too. My point was to demonstrate what can be missed out on if we choose not to trade. I did that by using the same trade down to #11 in 2004 that is being discussed with the Vikings…down to #11, picking up #23 and a 1st the following year. I then simply listed the players taken at those spots, plus a range of guys that were taken at the reasonable spots the next year’s obtained first rounder. Think of how that trade would have changed NFL history for the Rams (remember what Jackson did for them), for the Steelers (can you even imagine the Steelers with no Ben or Heath) and of course for us (I wouldn’t have the same profile GIF to say the least!). Everything is speculation, including MHJ being in the same ballpark as Fitz. Even if he is, we have to consider what we would pass up with three first rounders. And again, I want to emphasize it’s not just three players, it’s the lower risk of one injury erasing that player’s value AND the extremely important 12-15 years of contract vs 4-5 at the rookie pay scale. That frees up cap spending for even more talent. My logic is simple
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 13, 2024 9:34:12 GMT -7
This maybe the best deal and the Vikings have more than just the Giants to worry about - Broncos are Reportedly DESPERATE for #4
HMMM # 12, 2025 1st rounder and CB Patrick Surtain ... this is probably the best rumored deal. Analysis - - #11 or #12 - virtually the same and would still need to trade up with Atlanta to get #8 and Odunze
- 2025 1st Rounder - seems a HIGH probability this 1st rounder would be a better pick than a Vikings 2025 1st rounder. Broncos 1st pick in 2025 draft would probably be 8-12 spots better than the Vikes first rounder. BTW - 2025 draft class is said to be loaded with top defensive front 7 talent.
- #23 from Vikings - many mocks have the Cards going after CB's Kool- Aid, Quinton Mitchell or Wiggins with this pick. I'd rather have young, proven Surtain even with the cap cost.
I am hoping this Broncos offer is out there because it could force the Vikings to add a 2025 3rd or 4th round "sweetener" to come up to this proposed possible Broncos deal.
If above is true, than Sean Peyton did indeed know "it is good to be Monti."
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 13, 2024 10:15:29 GMT -7
This maybe the best deal and the Vikings have more than just the Giants to worry about - Broncos are Reportedly DESPERATE for #4
HMMM # 12, 2025 1st rounder and CB Patrick Surtain ... this is probably the best rumored deal. Analysis - - #11 or #12 - virtually the same and would still need to trade up with Atlanta to get #8 and Odunze
- 2025 1st Rounder - seems a HIGH probability this 1st rounder would be a better pick than a Vikings 2025 1st rounder. Broncos 1st pick in 2025 draft would probably be 8-12 spots better than the Vikes first rounder. BTW - 2025 draft class is said to be loaded with top defensive front 7 talent.
- #23 from Vikings - many mocks have the Cards going after CB's Kool- Aid, Quinton Mitchell or Wiggins with this pick. I'd rather have young, proven Surtain even with the cap cost.
I am hoping this Broncos offer is out there because it could force the Vikings to add a 2025 3rd or 4th round "sweetener" to come up to this proposed possible Broncos deal.
If above is true, than Sean Peyton did indeed know "it is good to be Monti." A month ago when the Vikings made their trade for an additional 1st, I made the “What are the Vikings up to?” Thread and then posted the following: “Dry Heat Avatar Mar 16, 2024 19:49:27 GMT -7 Dry Heat said: Vikings #11, #23 and 2025 1st rounder Broncos #12, #76, and CB Patrick Surtain II Raiders #13, #43, #77, 2025 1st rounder and 2025 2nd rounder Which would you take instead of MHJ at #4?” I took a look at the players and contracts and draft ammo of teams in need of QB’s and thought Surtain II would be a good target. I love seeing that Surtain II possibility being discussed this close to the draft!
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Post by devongent on Apr 15, 2024 10:54:53 GMT -7
Shall we accept the Giants have 'won' this poll vote and move forward from there? - If so, we need a new one, The Giants trade v Marvin Harrison Jr (or other named player) # 4
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 16, 2024 4:24:06 GMT -7
Assuming Cards stay at #4 and select MHJ. I really do think a trade is possible at #27 to the Raiders for them to come up and get Penix, QB.
Based on the Trade Value Chart and the move up for a QB in 1st round (benefit of 5 yr option), the trade would be #27 for the Raiders #44, #77 and 2025 2nd Rounder.
My Revised first 5 round mock would look like this:
#4 = MHJ #35 - J. Newton DT, Illinois #44 - Ennis Rakestraw CB, Missouri #66 - [One of the following will be available at top of 3rd round] Cooper Beebe, Guard/Layden Robinson, Guard/Zach Frazier G/C #71 - J'Lyn Polk WR Washington #77 - Caelen Carson, CB Wake Forest #90 - Jonah Ellis, Edge, Utah #104 - Jaylen Wright RB TN #138 - Jordan Jefferson DT, LSU #162 - Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State
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Post by End Zone on Apr 16, 2024 5:45:42 GMT -7
Assuming Cards stay at #4 and select MHJ. I really do think a trade is possible at #27 to the Raiders for them to come up and get Penix, QB. Based on the Trade Value Chart and the move up for a QB in 1st round (benefit of 5 yr option), the trade would be #27 for the Raiders #44, #77 and 2025 2nd Rounder. My Revised first 5 round mock would look like this: #4 = MHJ #35 - J. Newton DT, Illinois #44 - Ennis Rakestraw CB, Missouri #66 - [One of the following will be available at top of 3rd round] Cooper Beebe, Guard/Layden Robinson, Guard/Zach Frazier G/C #71 - J'Lyn Polk WR Washington #77 - Caelen Carson, CB Wake Forest #90 - Jonah Ellis, Edge, Utah #104 - Jaylen Wright RB TN #138 - Jordan Jefferson DT, LSU #162 - Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State RB Question: Did Schrader (Mizzou) last to 104 when you picked Wright? The only criticism on Schrader is 1 year of excellence at D1 level.
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 16, 2024 6:19:25 GMT -7
Assuming Cards stay at #4 and select MHJ. I really do think a trade is possible at #27 to the Raiders for them to come up and get Penix, QB. Based on the Trade Value Chart and the move up for a QB in 1st round (benefit of 5 yr option), the trade would be #27 for the Raiders #44, #77 and 2025 2nd Rounder. My Revised first 5 round mock would look like this: #4 = MHJ #35 - J. Newton DT, Illinois #44 - Ennis Rakestraw CB, Missouri #66 - [One of the following will be available at top of 3rd round] Cooper Beebe, Guard/Layden Robinson, Guard/Zach Frazier G/C #71 - J'Lyn Polk WR Washington #77 - Caelen Carson, CB Wake Forest #90 - Jonah Ellis, Edge, Utah #104 - Jaylen Wright RB TN #138 - Jordan Jefferson DT, LSU #162 - Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State RB Question: Did Schrader (Mizzou) last to 104 when you picked Wright? The only criticism on Schrader is 1 year of excellence at D1 level. My mock draft was created in reviewing several mock drafts in order to select players that I like but to be reasonable if those players would actually be available. While I like Schrader of Mizzou ... Jaylen Wright to me is being way undervalued for a guy who had 7.2 yds/carry ran a 4.38 40 with a 40 inch vertical. He amazingly had over 25% of his runs this past year go for 10 yds or more .. can get to 2nd level and catch balls out of the backfield too. My strategy would be to get 2 WR's (Devonta Smith as a WR2 just signed for $25M/APY ... better to have WR's on rookie contract who can still produce), 2 CB's, 2 DL including a top-flight 3 technique type of guy in Newton. The only hole is at Edge but there are 4 top guys with a dramatic fall-off and they all will most likely be gone by pick #35 but Jonah Ellis is a player whose production had very high TFL's and Sacks.
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Post by End Zone on Apr 16, 2024 9:31:45 GMT -7
Shall we accept the Giants have 'won' this poll vote and move forward from there? - If so, we need a new one, The Giants trade v Marvin Harrison Jr (or other named player) # 4 Devongent, it is done. Poll locked. Thread still open for discussions. Thx.
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Post by End Zone on Apr 16, 2024 9:41:16 GMT -7
RB Question: Did Schrader (Mizzou) last to 104 when you picked Wright? The only criticism on Schrader is 1 year of excellence at D1 level. My mock draft was created in reviewing several mock drafts in order to select players that I like but to be reasonable if those players would actually be available. While I like Schrader of Mizzou ... Jaylen Wright to me is being way undervalued for a guy who had 7.2 yds/carry ran a 4.38 40 with a 40 inch vertical. He amazingly had over 25% of his runs this past year go for 10 yds or more .. can get to 2nd level and catch balls out of the backfield too. My strategy would be to get 2 WR's (Devonta Smith as a WR2 just signed for $25M/APY ... better to have WR's on rookie contract who can still produce), 2 CB's, 2 DL including a top-flight 3 technique type of guy in Newton. The only hole is at Edge but there are 4 top guys with a dramatic fall-off and they all will most likely be gone by pick #35 but Jonah Ellis is a player whose production had very high TFL's and Sacks. Where does Wright fit in the Cards RB room? Is Wright RB 2 or RB 1?
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Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 16, 2024 11:26:44 GMT -7
My mock draft was created in reviewing several mock drafts in order to select players that I like but to be reasonable if those players would actually be available. While I like Schrader of Mizzou ... Jaylen Wright to me is being way undervalued for a guy who had 7.2 yds/carry ran a 4.38 40 with a 40 inch vertical. He amazingly had over 25% of his runs this past year go for 10 yds or more .. can get to 2nd level and catch balls out of the backfield too. My strategy would be to get 2 WR's (Devonta Smith as a WR2 just signed for $25M/APY ... better to have WR's on rookie contract who can still produce), 2 CB's, 2 DL including a top-flight 3 technique type of guy in Newton. The only hole is at Edge but there are 4 top guys with a dramatic fall-off and they all will most likely be gone by pick #35 but Jonah Ellis is a player whose production had very high TFL's and Sacks. Where does Wright fit in the Cards RB room? Is Wright RB 2 or RB 1? Wright is JC's replacement in 2025+ .... for 2024, he will get touches to keep JC fresh all year and hopefully without injury. If JC got injured, Wright would be RB1 and of course either way Michael Carter will see 12-14 snaps especially on 3rd down.
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Post by End Zone on Apr 16, 2024 16:41:55 GMT -7
Where does Wright fit in the Cards RB room? Is Wright RB 2 or RB 1? Wright is JC's replacement in 2025+ .... for 2024, he will get touches to keep JC fresh all year and hopefully without injury. If JC got injured, Wright would be RB1 and of course either way Michael Carter will see 12-14 snaps especially on 3rd down. Thanks. That makes sense. 2025 it is for Wright then. I love Carter by the way. That was a great signing in 2023 and will pay huge dividends in 2024+.
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Post by CardSunsCard on Apr 18, 2024 21:52:10 GMT -7
I feel that almost all the scenarios above are worth doing. Before I explain why, I want to explain how I came to this conclusion. As a portfolio manager, I get paid to do something similar to this for a living. The only difference is I make investment decisions on securities and not people. But the rationale is the same whether you're trading football players or managing millions in financial assets. The key in these analysis is always opportunity cost. For many on the board, they are concerned with missing out on MHJ. Thing is, it's not forgone conclusion we lose him if we drop to 6. But to measure opportunity cost it's really about factoring the difference in the asset you give up for what you get. With financial markets the risk premium is always compared to guaranteed rate on an asset like a 2 year treasury note. In this exercise, if you believe our target is a WR, then the opportunity cost what is going to be the projected performance difference between MHJ and someone like Odunze or Alt. Or who we'd get if we drop to 10 or 12. What also complicates this exercise isn't the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It's how well can you project how your trade partner will perform the following year. Because on paper, last year's trade with Houston was a no brainer. But Houston outperformed because Stroud exceeded everyone's expectations. Let's start with some facts this year. 1. It's likely a bunch of QBs are going early. While most may eventually be stellar, the majority aren't likely ready to roll in year one like Stroud. Caleb Wilson has the best chance to start hot, given his experience, but the rest will likely need at least a year. So anyone trading up to nab one of those guys isn't likely to do to us what Houston did last year. So trading down this year is likely a safer bet, especially since there's no elite OT/pass rusher to make a difference maker for the acquiring team. Not in year one. This means that any 2025 picks we acquire will likely not see much of a decline like we saw with our Houston trade watching our projected 12-13 pick drop to 23 this year. 2. Outside of the WRs of which there are several who are considered equal in abilities, we don't miss out on any other key talent by trading down this year. So the opportunity cost of trading down THIS YEAR is lower than in years past. MHJ is probably a sure thing, but I think Odunze, Nabors and Bowers could be as well. Given we are looking for pass catching help, one of these kids will still be there with almost all the above trade downs and there 'should' be little difference in production absent poor QB play, which it happens would affect anyone receiving threat we draft. So if we can agree on that fact, it makes this even easier to calculate. The only way we 'miss out' is if you believe our real target is an offensive tackle like Alt. 3. Patrick Surtain is a lockdown corner and Quennan Williams is above average. Both of those guys would fill positions of need for us at positions that are considered weak in this draft. Not depth wise, but lacking of elite talent. Since lockdown corners are so hard to find, Surtain has long been someone I wanted provided we can sign him long term. Consider one other point. If we made these trades and subsequently lost either of these guys, we would be getting back maximum compensation in the form of compensatory picks. Keim was good at that when he made one year prove it deals, so you absolutely have to add the compensatory pick into your calculations. Because it's a guarantee unless those guys get hurt. So in both of those potential trades, those deals are even better than they first seem. Truth is, I would do almost every single one of the above deals with one caveats: a) I would actually prefer the 2nd Giants deal to the first one because I don't think they'll improve much year one. The extra 1st and 2nd in 2025 will likely be at beginning of the rounds and that's too much to pass up. And the 70th from this year could just be used to trade up this year netting us an extra 2nd, if not get us back in the 1st round this year. The only way this doesn't work out hugely in our favor is if you believe the QB the Giants get is going to ball in year one. The only two deals I'd pass on are the Vikings and Raiders deals. The reason is the Vikings offer isn't that great, and in the Raiders case, they are closer to being one pick away and can already give the Chiefs all they can handle. That makes them the most likely to outperform as Houston did last year. If I had to choose a deal I'd choose the Denver deal with Surtain first. I'd choose the second Giants offer next. I've already stated why the second Giants deal is better but let me explain the Denver offer more. While I don't think they'd ever trade us Surtain, he is already proven, young and plays a position of need. He's also lockdown. Those guys rarely hit the market, and most times, they outperform all other players, return on investment wise, exception being QBs or elite pass rushers. They do bring more value than even offensive tackles. (If it's an absolute lockdown corner and not just an elite one) So unless you think you can't resign him, we would HAVE to do that deal. Because Surtain > any WR in this year's class - in terms of production. (unless he got hurt or just hates being a Cardinal and refuses to perform) In any other year where an elite pass rusher, CB or OT was available in the Top-5 I might not do most of these deals. This year is different. In a year where the most sure things are ALL WR's, and there are at least 3 considered elite, and at least 4 others considered almost as good, and potentially even elite, the cost of trading down this year is the lowest its been in years in terms of what we'd give up. So much so we can likely trade down and still get one of the guys we covet. Plus net extra 1st and 2nds next year. The Surtain deal would just be too much for me to pass up. To get a lockdown CB in his prime and still get the 12th pick would be a run to the podium situation for me. Because if you look at multiple mocks, some think that Odunze, Bowers or Fuaga will still be there at 12. I haven't followed Fuaga much but if he's really considered good, how could you pass on an elite lockdown corner + an elite OT. I'm not saying Fuaga is elite but I do know that Odunze/Bowers are considered such. So to get Odunze/Bowers + Surtain.... plus a 3rd round compensatory if you lost Surtain. you'd be crazy not to take that deal. So it's essentially how you value MHJ vs. Surtain + Odunze/Bowers/Fuaga + a 3rd rounder www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-mock-draft-3-qbs-are-selected-in-first-3-picks-while-new-york-giants-and-new-york-jets-trade-into-top-5
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Post by Dry Heat on Apr 19, 2024 8:47:26 GMT -7
I feel that almost all the scenarios above are worth doing. Before I explain why, I want to explain how I came to this conclusion. As a portfolio manager, I get paid to do something similar to this for a living. The only difference is I make investment decisions on securities and not people. But the rationale is the same whether you're trading football players or managing millions in financial assets. The key in these analysis is always opportunity cost. For many on the board, they are concerned with missing out on MHJ. Thing is, it's not forgone conclusion we lose him if we drop to 6. But to measure opportunity cost it's really about factoring the difference in the asset you give up for what you get. With financial markets the risk premium is always compared to guaranteed rate on an asset like a 2 year treasury note. In this exercise, if you believe our target is a WR, then the opportunity cost what is going to be the projected performance difference between MHJ and someone like Odunze or Alt. Or who we'd get if we drop to 10 or 12. What also complicates this exercise isn't the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It's how well can you project how your trade partner will perform the following year. Because on paper, last year's trade with Houston was a no brainer. But Houston outperformed because Stroud exceeded everyone's expectations. Let's start with some facts this year. 1. It's likely a bunch of QBs are going early. While most may eventually be stellar, the majority aren't likely ready to roll in year one like Stroud. Caleb Wilson has the best chance to start hot, given his experience, but the rest will likely need at least a year. So anyone trading up to nab one of those guys isn't likely to do to us what Houston did last year. So trading down this year is likely a safer bet, especially since there's no elite OT/pass rusher to make a difference maker for the acquiring team. Not in year one. This means that any 2025 picks we acquire will likely not see much of a decline like we saw with our Houston trade watching our projected 12-13 pick drop to 23 this year. 2. Outside of the WRs of which there are several who are considered equal in abilities, we don't miss out on any other key talent by trading down this year. So the opportunity cost of trading down THIS YEAR is lower than in years past. MHJ is probably a sure thing, but I think Odunze, Nabors and Bowers could be as well. Given we are looking for pass catching help, one of these kids will still be there with almost all the above trade downs and there 'should' be little difference in production absent poor QB play, which it happens would affect anyone receiving threat we draft. So if we can agree on that fact, it makes this even easier to calculate. The only way we 'miss out' is if you believe our real target is an offensive tackle like Alt. 3. Patrick Surtain is a lockdown corner and Quennan Williams is above average. Both of those guys would fill positions of need for us at positions that are considered weak in this draft. Not depth wise, but lacking of elite talent. Since lockdown corners are so hard to find, Surtain has long been someone I wanted provided we can sign him long term. Consider one other point. If we made these trades and subsequently lost either of these guys, we would be getting back maximum compensation in the form of compensatory picks. Keim was good at that when he made one year prove it deals, so you absolutely have to add the compensatory pick into your calculations. Because it's a guarantee unless those guys get hurt. So in both of those potential trades, those deals are even better than they first seem. Truth is, I would do almost every single one of the above deals with one caveats: a) I would actually prefer the 2nd Giants deal to the first one because I don't think they'll improve much year one. The extra 1st and 2nd in 2025 will likely be at beginning of the rounds and that's too much to pass up. And the 70th from this year could just be used to trade up this year netting us an extra 2nd, if not get us back in the 1st round this year. The only way this doesn't work out hugely in our favor is if you believe the QB the Giants get is going to ball in year one. The only two deals I'd pass on are the Vikings and Raiders deals. The reason is the Vikings offer isn't that great, and in the Raiders case, they are closer to being one pick away and can already give the Chiefs all they can handle. That makes them the most likely to outperform as Houston did last year. If I had to choose a deal I'd choose the Denver deal with Surtain first. I'd choose the second Giants offer next. I've already stated why the second Giants deal is better but let me explain the Denver offer more. While I don't think they'd ever trade us Surtain, he is already proven, young and plays a position of need. He's also lockdown. Those guys rarely hit the market, and most times, they outperform all other players, return on investment wise, exception being QBs or elite pass rushers. They do bring more value than even offensive tackles. (If it's an absolute lockdown corner and not just an elite one) So unless you think you can't resign him, we would HAVE to do that deal. Because Surtain > any WR in this year's class - in terms of production. (unless he got hurt or just hates being a Cardinal and refuses to perform) In any other year where an elite pass rusher, CB or OT was available in the Top-5 I might not do most of these deals. This year is different. In a year where the most sure things are ALL WR's, and there are at least 3 considered elite, and at least 4 others considered almost as good, and potentially even elite, the cost of trading down this year is the lowest its been in years in terms of what we'd give up. So much so we can likely trade down and still get one of the guys we covet. Plus net extra 1st and 2nds next year. The Surtain deal would just be too much for me to pass up. To get a lockdown CB in his prime and still get the 12th pick would be a run to the podium situation for me. Because if you look at multiple mocks, some think that Odunze, Bowers or Fuaga will still be there at 12. I haven't followed Fuaga much but if he's really considered good, how could you pass on an elite lockdown corner + an elite OT. I'm not saying Fuaga is elite but I do know that Odunze/Bowers are considered such. So to get Odunze/Bowers + Surtain.... plus a 3rd round compensatory if you lost Surtain. you'd be crazy not to take that deal. So it's essentially how you value MHJ vs. Surtain + Odunze/Bowers/Fuaga + a 3rd rounder www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-mock-draft-3-qbs-are-selected-in-first-3-picks-while-new-york-giants-and-new-york-jets-trade-into-top-5Sounds like we have similar careers, except I invest in a very specific asset class that is not very liquid so the long term success is the prime variable. I’ll add two things. 1) With the Surtain trade, (or a Jefferson or Q Williams trade) we have to consider the opportunity costs of the massive contracts they would require. That is VERY significant. 2) I’ve mentioned this in other threads, but haven’t seen others acknowledge. With several first round picks in something like a Vikings trade, you both diversify your investment (reducing risk impact from one event like an injury, suspension or contract dispute) and you gain the value of cheap rookie contract years. Five cheap years of MHJ must be compared to 15 cheap years of three first round players on rookie contracts. The impact of 4-5 years of MHJ locked up in contract then must be compared to 12-15 years of say Bowers, one of the top CB’s, and a first round Dlineman we draft with the first round pick next year. The risk is diversified, and the cap space made available over the next five years is substantial.
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