Post by End Zone on Oct 4, 2021 6:48:36 GMT -7
The Game Day Thread is open and current as of 530am, 9 October. Enjoy.
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SF at ARZ October 10, 2021.
Hello and welcome to the Forum’s 5th Arizona Cardinals Game Day Thread (GDT). Wow, the season is ripping along. Here we are in the second week of October 2021. Today's game is just the second home game of the season for the Cardinals, now standing alone atop the NFL at 4-0. It's good to be at home for 3 of the next 4 games and to punch some NFL high-flyers in the mouth on our home turf. Rise up Red Sea! Keep on winning. Own the future. Cardinals’ playoff games are going to happen! The traditional family holidays for November and December also are right around the corner. Ah, family time, the Holiday's season, and the Cardinals winning—life for a red-blooded football fan does not get any better.
Cardinals’ fans are quite familiar with the 49ers, now 2-2. The two teams match up well in recent years. Head-to-head games typically have close finishes and are settled in the 4th quarter. For this GDT, I will also explore the 49ers QBs in more depth—I believe a permanent QB change is coming to the 49ers very soon. QB Jimmy Garoppolo is under the media microscope every weekend; he also was playing while injured (right leg calf problem carried over from game #3) and sat out the second half of the October 3rd game versus the Seahawks. Rookie QB Trey Lance is apparently ready to start fulltime. More on Garoppolo and Lance is presented, below. Stay tuned after today's game. This Division grudge match is far from finished. The Cardinals and 49ers will meet again in week #9 at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA. Then, both teams should have a good idea about who is the NFC West Division's leaders and bleeders.
49ers History. Today's game is the 60th meeting between the two franchises, with the 49ers owning 32 wins, the Cardinals owning 27 wins. The teams have played no tie games. In 2020, the teams split Division match-ups. On September 13, the Cardinals held on for a shocking 24-20 win at Levi's Stadium. On December 26th, the 49ers took one from the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium, 20-12. Since 2002, the two teams played at least 2 intra-Division games per year, with the Cardinals winning 18 of those contests. 5 games went to OT, with the Cardinals winning 2 and losing 3. Interestingly, since 2014, the Cardinals have enjoyed success against the 49ers, winning 10 games, or more that 50%. The 49ers are not 10-foot tall and the Cardinals do compete well versus the 49ers at home and on the road. One tiny change in the 49ers uniforms is the addition of a "75" patch commemorating the 75th anniversary of the SF 49ers establishment in 1946. That's so wonderful for the 49ers team and fans, but the Red and Gold of California will never catch the Red and White of Arizona, the latter now playing more than 101 years in the NFL since September 17, 1920.
The 49ers Team. Just about every pro football forecaster had the 49ers winning double-digit games in 2020. Last season, a record of 11-5 was the average W/L wager line. Some bettors had the team walking away with the NFC West title and nosing their way back into the Super Bowl. Wrong, wrong, and wrong! At one point in the sad sack season, the 49ers had over 10 highly-paid starters on IR, a burden totaling $80M-plus in CAP space. QB Jimmy Garoppolo led the list of hobbled, pulling in $26M per year. At the end of the 49er's season, over 50 players were recycled from Active-to-PUP-to-IR-and finally to the Greyhound Bus Station. Kyle Shanahan did what he could with a combat-wounded and patched up team, earning 6 wins and 10 losses along with a 4th place NFC West finish. The 49ers Offense was offensive, tallying 376 points while the Defense was absent most games, giving away 390 points. After a Super Bowl appearance (and loss) in 2019, I assess that the 49ers missed the last chance at playoffs in 2020 for a long while. Major team retooling has to happen. The 49ers Defense has some major holes in 2021 and the Cardinals, Rams, and Seahawks will go shopping for yards and points against the weakened 49ers roster often.
HC Kyle Shanahan (hired away from Atlanta Falcons as the team's OC in 2017) may be on the bubble at SF in 2021. How so? HC's have to produce wins. Shanahan's record at SF is 64 games managed, with 29 wins and 35 loses. SF has a history of winning, or did so regularly 20-plus years ago. The team has a brand spanking new hot-shot rookie QB waiting in the wings. Garoppolo has not provided the consistency needed to take the 49ers to the top of the NFC West Division in either 2020 or 2021. At some point, the HC becomes accountable. The team jumped off the rails early in 2020 and did not recover. If another bad trip happens, look for HC Shanahan to pack his bags. He will find employment fast in this League. He's not a bad HC, just unlucky with Garopollo. At 41yo, he's practically an NFL junior partner. His coaching training tree is solid: John Gruden, Gary Kubiak, Mike Pettine, Dan Quinn, and Mike Shanahan.
49ers Quarterback. One word describes the 49ers QB situation: Transition.
The biggest 49ers offseason story had to be the selection of North Dakota State sophomore QB Trey Lance at #3 in the 2021 Draft. Lance’s selection cost the 49ers 3 1st Round Draft picks. Lance wears jersey #9 for the 49ers. He's got to be one of the most spiritually motivated NFL players, judging from his Twitter account. If you are into spiritual quotes, look him up. About his physicality, and performance on the football field, both remain to be seen and felt fulltime. Lance was selected by the 49ers with the 3rd overall pick of April's draft. The North Dakota State product has a solid frame at 6-foot-4, 224 pounds and his best assets are his huge arm and rushing ability. N.D. State didn't play in 2020 due to COVID, but Lance threw for 2,789 yards (9.7 YPA) and ran for 1,110 (6.5 YPC) in 16 games in 2019. Lance's shaky accuracy and a severe lack of experience (1 full season as NCAAF D1-level starter, 17.9 pass attempts per game) are concern areas, but his combination of size, arm talent and rushing ability supplies plenty of upside. It is only a matter of time until Lance permanently replaces Garoppolo. Lance is exceptionally fast between the end zones, clocking 4.5 seconds unofficially in several 40-yard tests in early 2021. He repeatedly refused to be officially timed in a 40-yard sprint during the off-season. At the time of this writing, I do not know which QB, Garoppolo or Lance, will start versus the Cardinals on October 10th. Stay tuned.
Lance has been used sparingly up until the second half of last Sunday’s game versus the Seattle Seahawks when Garoppolo’s right leg calf prevented him from continuing. Per the NFL Gamebook statistics, Lance took over for Garoppolo (14 for 23 and 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and started the second half. Lance attempted 18 passes, completed 9 for 157 total yards and 2 TDs, and no INTs, for a rating of 117.1. He was sacked 1 time. He rushed 7 times for 41 yards, 5.9 yards average. WR Samuel was Garoppolo’s/Lance’s favorite receiver with 12 targets and 8 receptions for 156 yards and 2 TDs. TE Kittle was the QBs second favorite receiver with 11 targets and 4 receptions for 40 yards and no TDs. Some of the interesting statistics that popped out of the SEA @ SF Gamebook last week (49ers only): 1st downs 23; 3rd down efficiency 2-14 14.3%, 4th down efficiency 3-4 75.0%, total yards 457, net rushing yards 143, net passing yards 314, total offensive plays 72 (41 were passes, 29 were rushes), punts 6 43.7 yards average, penalties 8 78 yards, INTs 1, fumbles 1, Red Zone efficiency 1-1 100%, TDs 3, Extra points 2-3 2 points, FGs 0-1 0.0%, and time of possession 31.40. A quick review of Lance’s 2 quarters of work: He was under Center for 7 series. (1) 2 plays yielded 22 yards, punt; (2) 3 plays yielded 6 yards, punt; (3) 0 plays yielded 0 yards, fumble; (4) 4 plays yielded 89 yards, TD; (5) 3 plays yielded 2 yards, punt; (6) 8 plays yielded 29 yards, Downs; and (7) 13 plays yielded 80 yards, TD. Telling was that with rookie Lance under Center during 4 of those drives, the 49ers did not cross midfield and had just 2 1st downs.
Seattle (now 2-2) playing on the road beat San Francisco (now 2-2) on their home turf at Levi Stadium, 28-21. Seattle was under tremendous pressure to avoid going 1-3 and just barely won that game. After the game, HC Shanahan praised Lance, but acknowledged that the 49ers are again in last place in the Division and 2 games behind the first place Arizona Cardinals and 1 game behind the second place Los Angeles Rams No one on the 49ers team is panicking. To quote TE Kittle, the San Francisco sky is not falling—there is not a bear in the building—at least not yet.
At QB Lance’s first appearance on September 26th, Lance scored a 1-yard touchdown on his only carry in the 30-28 loss to Green Bay. Lance technically was on the field for 3 offensive snaps (4%), but he only logged the 1 offensive touch after his pass attempt was called back due to a penalty. QB Garoppolo struggled noticeably for the first time this season, but he salvaged his performance with a strong second half. Many 49ers forecasters see Lance permanently taking over the starting QB spot in the 2021 season—and, perhaps that has happened already on October 3rd.
QB Garoppolo is often injured and his trade value remains unknown. His durability is a key problem now. Garoppolo was the starting QB in 5 seasons at the 49ers, and he has gotten hurt before the end of the 4th game in 4 of those seasons. Injuries include shoulder (2016), knee (2018), ankle (2020), and calf (2021). The calf injury could last “a couple weeks.” Special Note: The 2021 NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, November 3, which is also Election Day for those inclined to participate. For those following for NFL news of last-minute trades, it's worth sticking around a little while after the 4 p.m. ET deadline. Trades that are sent to the league office just before the buzzer may not be reported until after 4 p.m.
QB Sales Pitch. In 2020, #10 QB Jimmy Garoppolo (6'2", 225 lbs, 29yo, 8th NFL pro year) played in just 6 games, winning 3 and losing 3, before going on IR after the game versus Seattle Seahawks on November 1. In those 6 games, Garoppolo completed 94 of 140 passes for 1,096 yards (67.1%) for 7.8 yards average per pass. He had 7 TDs and 5 INTs. He was sacked 11 times. His 2020 QBR was 61.5. He also rushed 10 times for 25 yards. His best game was versus the New England Patriots on October 25, when he made 20 of 25 passes for 277 yards and the 49ers stomped the Pats, 33-6. His worst game was versus the Miami Dolphins on October 11, when he made 7 of 17 passes for 77 yards, and the 49ers lost to the Dolphins, 43-17. Garoppolo played NCAAF football at the University of Eastern Illinois, Ohio Valley Conference (OVC). His pro careers stats are solid: Completed 659 of 977 passes (67.5%) for 8,042 yards, 51 TDs, 26 INTs, and a 98.9 rating. Garoppolo played football for the New England Patriots from 2014-2017, or 4 seasons. He won 17 of his first 20 starts for HC Belichick. Garoppolo was then traded to the 49ers after the 2017 season for a draft haul. He won the Walter Payton Award during his senior year at E. Illinois in 2013 when he was credited with breaking numerous school records then owned by former QB Tony Romo. In 2018, Garoppolo signed a new contract with the 49ers valued at $137.5M. That same season, Garoppolo tore his ACL and was placed on IR. In 2019, Garoppolo shot out of a cannon, leading the 49ers to the team's first 8-0 start since 1990. Garoppolo took the 49ers to SB LIV, but the team lost to the Kansas City Chiefs due to the 49ers D and mistake-riddled 4th quarter meltdown. Garoppolo seems to always struggle with injuries since being drafted in 2014.
Last Game, Arizona Versus San Francisco, September 13, 2020. QB Garoppolo quarterbacked one game against the Cardinals in 2020, losing 24-20 at Levi Stadium, Santa Clara, CA on a sunny and pleasant afternoon. SF Offense statistical highlights: First downs 18. Total yards 366. Pass yards 243. Rush yards 123. However, it was the SF Defense that did not measure up, yielding 404 total yards to HC Kingsbury and QB Murray, with 224 yards gained via passing and a gaudy 180 yards gained via rushing. Arizona demonstrated offensive prowess and defensive backbone in that game, especially in the 2nd half, scoring 14 points in the 4th quarter and holding the 49ers to just 7 points at a back-and-forth game. SF was a huge 7-point favorite in the game, but lost by 4 points, crushing odds makers hopes of a big payoff and setting a negative tone for the SF season. At the second matchup played on December 26, 2020, the 49ers O/D/ST had all the right answers versus the stumbling Cardinals, winning 20-12 at SFS. Garoppolo was on IR, so QB C.J. Beathard (6'2", 215 lbs, 27yo) quarterbacked. We also know that QB Murray was playing with a very tender shoulder that day. Enough said.
QBs. After the last Cardinals vs. 49ers game on December 26, 2020, ESPN's lead NFL story read, "Third-string QB C.J. Beathard threw 3 touchdown passes, RB Jeff Wilson rand for 183 yards, and the San Francisco 49ers dealt a brutal blow to the Arizona Cardinals' playoff hopes by defeating them 20-12 on Saturday." Doh! That is a hurtful truth. When Cardinals coaches do not prepare their players for the competition, fans should expect the team to lose badly. And, that's exactly what happened at the last game. Cardinals coaches completely failed to anticipate that backup players could manhandle starters. Cardinals' coaches and experienced players appeared to be taking 49ers weaknesses and inexperience for granted, assuming an easy win at home at State Farm Stadium. HC Kliff Kingsbury's high-powered offense somehow scored just 6 points through 3 quarters vs. 49ers backups! The facts are hard to believe--but 100% truthful. QB Beathard stats: 13-22 for 182 yards and 3 TDs. No INTs. Sacked 3 times. QBR 30.2!!! TE Kittle had 4 receptions (5 targets!!!) for 92 yards. Six other receivers added 90 more yards. But it was the 49ers solid ground game (227 total yards) that killed the Cardinals. The Cardinals Defensive Line was almost completely missing in action this day--the 49ers easily confused the unprepared Cardinals on just about every play. Meanwhile, the 49ers Defense, led by LB Fred Warner's and S Tavaras Moore's combined 25 tackles, completely stymied QB Murray's and Kingsbury's offense. This game was over before it started because the Cardinals coaches failed to do their jobs on a short week at home. There were no good excuses. None, Zip.
Other 49ers Off-Season News. All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and the 49ers inked a 5-year, $95 million extension that will employ him with the 49ers through the 2026 season. Warner is a defender that can really dish pain on game days. The Cardinals cannot just watch Warner. Two Olineman may not be enough to control Warner.
Injury Reports. See FLCF’s post. Moderators will post player injury data provided by the Cardinals medical or coaching staff no more than 24 hours prior to the game. It is NFL policy that, “If any player has a significant or noteworthy injury, it must be listed on the practice report, even if he fully participates in practice and the team expects that he will play in the team’s next game. This is especially important for key players whose injuries may be covered extensively by the media.” Moreover, the policy also reads, “The information must be credible, accurate, timely, and specific within the guidelines of the policy, which is of paramount importance to maintaining the integrity of the game.” Teams found in violation of the policy face the risk of being fined or forfeiting Draft picks.
Roster Information. The Cardinals team roster information (updated weekly) can be reviewed at www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/ARZ . Roster Rules 2021 (COVID-19): (1) Expansion of practice squads to 16 players, including up to 6 who have more than 2 accrued seasons; (2) The ability to protect up to 4 practice squad players per week from being signed by other teams; (3) Elevation of up to 2 practice squad players to the active roster, without removing any current players, before 4 p.m. ET the day before a game; (4) Elevation of 1 additional practice squad player within 90 minutes before kickoff in the event of a late COVID-19 positive test result; (5) Players placed on injured reserve can return after 3 weeks, rather than 6 weeks as in normal seasons; (6) Removal of the limit for how many players can be activated from injured reserve.
Odds. Per the professionals, the Cardinals are 5.5 point favorites over the 49ers. The total game score O/U is 52.5. I read an interesting note from the Las Vegas professionals on Monday morning: The NFL is undergoing a change in bragging status between the winners and losers. A bunch of traditional winning teams are losing and thus killing bettors’ wallets in 2021. Last week, almost 70% of ‘above the spread’ (ATS) bets were lost by bettors. 7 of 10 are non-believers. Fine. Let them eat worms. Professionals are cleaning up versus confused and lazy fans who do not do their homework. I think the Cardinals will AGAIN surpass the professionals spread. They beat the spread in 3 of 4 games so far this season (under at the MIN game only). The 49ers offense can execute and score but will not run the Cardinals defense around the home field much.
Referee Crew Information - Referee assigned to today's game is Clay Martin. He wears uniform number 19. He entered the league in the 2015 season as an umpire, and was promoted to referee for the 2018 season. Clay Martin last officiated a Cardinals game (Saints visitor) on October 27, 2019. His crew awarded 7 total penalties: 5 for 35 yards to the Cardinals and 2 for 15 yards to the Saints. Do not think Martin's crew is penalty-averse. The most penalties awarded by Martin in a game is 22, and that was done twice in the past. There are no known controversial decisions in this crew's records. Clay also officiated the Chiefs/Browns playoff game on January 17, 2021. Other officiating information: For 2020, NFL games averaged 156.4 plays; there were 40,032 total plays; 99.1% of the plays were officiated on the field without Instant Replay Booth involvement; only 364 of the plays were reviewed; the most commonly reviewed plays were pass completion (82), incomplete pass (47), and runner broke the goal line plane (44). See www.footballzebras.com/2021/06/officiating-crews-for-the-2021-season/.
Weather. For October 10th, Glendale's average weather is high 88F degrees and low 63F degrees. Rain occurs on average just 1 day in October. Expect the roof to be closed due to excessive outdoor heat.
State Farm Stadium Information. See www.statefarmstadium.com/ for all necessary information to enjoy a great day. Additionally, see the Arizona Cardinals website at www.azcardinals.com/.
Game Broadcasts. Game will be carried by FOX and 98.7 FM. Kickoff at SFS is 1:25 PM MST. Note Primetime scheduling--potential National TV broadcast.
Next week's game: ARZ (4-0) visits CLE (3-1).
Odds and Ends. The 49ers (2-2) recognize that their season is hanging by a thread after 4 games. The defensive unit is a shell of its former self compared to 2019, barely able now to push around average teams and unable to stop upper-tier offenses in 2021. The 49ers’ ability to score and generate excitement is hampered by a lack of marque players (exception is WR Samuels and TE Kittle) and inconsistency at QB. Smug 49ers fans are bailing by the thousands. No better example is the SNF game between SF at GB, where just 24% of California major market TV sets tuned into the game.
Cardinals Football Trivia Q&A. What was the last season the Cardinals played football in Chicago? 1959. How many seasons did the Cardinals play football at Saint Louis? 27. From 1960-1987. What year did the Cardinals record their first winning season at Saint Louis? 1960. Record 6-5-1. At the end of the 2020 season, Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald was the all-time receiving leader, with 17,492 yards. What former Cardinals player is #2? WR Roy Green, with 8,496 yards. WR Roy Green is not in the NFL's top-50 among all WRs. WR Anquan Boldin, who played for the Cardinals before being released and playing for other teams, accumulated 13,779 receiving yards. *WR DeAndre Hopkins is currently at 10,009 yards receiving and starting his 2nd year with the Cardinals since being acquired in a trade with the Texans prior to the 2020 season.
49ers Football Trivia Q&A. The 49ers joined the NFL in 1950. Who was the 49ers 1st draft pick? OL/DL Leo Nomellini, nicknamed "The Lion" was the 49ers 1st draft pick. He played NFL football for 14 years an made the Pro Bowl 10 times. During the off-season, The Lion was not idle. What other sport did he play? He was a professional wrestler in the off-season--and not known for any noteworthy athletic accomplishments in that entertainment ring. The 49ers were bought by an out-of-towner in 1977. Who bought the team and from what state did that new owner hail? Mr. Eddie DeBartolo Jr, bought the team and he was from Ohio. Bill Walsh is credited with developing the West Coast Offense, a method of ball that uses a lot of quick, timed, and high-percentage passes to gain yards fast and to wear down a Defense. Where and when did Walsh develop the WCO? Walsh was an assistant with the Cincinnati Bengals in the 1960s, when he first began using the high-speed high-percentage passing game. WR Jerry Rice is known for his HoF time at the 49ers. What teams did Rice play for after he was cut by the 49ers? Rice then played for the Raiders and then the Seahawks before finally retiring.
PutMeIn’s Bottom Line. Cardinals 41, 49ers 14. Total 55 points.
The Arizona Cardinals appear to have learned valuable lessons from the 2019 and 2020 seasons. This team is graybeard matured and youthfully exited, or has a well-balanced roster now, thanks to GM Steve Keim and HC Kingsbury. The team is: Checking emotions at the locker room door. Preparing for each game ahead of time. Playing one game at a time. Executing plays whistle to whistle. Playing smart football. Remembering the snap count. Staying on-side. Supporting teammates. Respecting the other team and Officials. Team behavior is changing in a positive way overall in 2021. 4 wins to start any season is huge for an NFL team. But for the Cardinals, this 4-win pace is a galaxy-sized team change. We know, or sense at least, that team winning begets more team winning and so on throughout a long season. Winning traditions that last many years all begin with that first step along an up and down pathway to Big Shows. The Cardinals have something very special ongoing in 2021. It all started with the QB and HC being 100% synchronized, and the DC and Defense squad playing smart. Avoiding major injuries remains to be seen. If the Cardinals overall can avoid major injuries, the team will dominate patched up and beaten-down teams as the season progresses. We will see the first example next week versus the 49ers.
San Francisco in their house put up a hard fight against Seattle last week. There were 14 punts in that game, 8 by Seattle and 6 by San Francisco. However, the game was not as close as the scoreboard indicates, with the Seahawks basically owning the game after Garoppolo sat down in favor of Lance in the second half. QB Wilson passed 23 times, completed 16 passes for 149 yards and no INTs. He rushed 4 times for 26 yards. Other Seahawks rushed 24 times for 123 yards.
How did HC Shanahan use rookie QB Lance starting the 2nd half? First series: Lance’s first play was in Shotgun formation, and he handed off the ball to RB Sermon for a 15-yard gain. Plays 2-4 were QB under Center and handoffs to RBs, result punt. Second series: (3-and-Out); 2 incomplete passes and 1 run, result punt. Third series: All 4 plays were with the QB in Shotgun formation, 2 runs were by RBs and 1 by QB scramble, then Lance hit a 76-yard bomb to WR Samuels for a TD; the 49ers PAT misfired. At the end of the 4th Quarter, with under 2 minutes to go in the game, the 49ers scored a TD on an 8-yard Lance pass to Samuels at 1:26. Then HC Shanahan called for the 2-point conversion attempt. Lance rushed up the middle and successfully converted the 2-point attempt. Remember, Lance can run fast and he is a big QB. The 49ers attempted an on-side kick but it failed. Game over. The 49ers will again put up a hard fight in the Cardinals house next Sunday. The Cardinals must be prepared for a hard punch in the nose right out of the gate. If that punch happenst comes, take their best shot, then give back 100 harder punches until they cannot get up off the grass field.
The Seattle @ San Francisco and the Arizona @ Los Angeles NFL Gamebooks are attached here for further reading and analysis.
ARI at LA Gamebook 2021 10 03.pdf (143.34 KB)
SEA at SF Gamebook 2021 10 03.pdf (146.6 KB)
As of October 4, the odds of the Cardinals winning the Super Bowl still stand at +1600, or 1/1600. The odds of the Cardinals winning the NFC Championship still stand at +800, or 1/800. These figures will change with every Cardinals’ victory and more wagers see the light.