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Post by cardinalsins on Feb 21, 2021 20:50:18 GMT -7
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Post by Dry Heat on Feb 22, 2021 0:05:34 GMT -7
It’s just too easy. I used PFF’s simulator, focusing on trade downs including 1st or 2nd round future picks (2022 and 2023) since COVID19 IMO will make the draft a bigger gamble this year.
First, I traded down two spots with Miami, swapping 2022 1st and 2nd rounders.
Next, I traded down from 18 to 21 with the Colts and received their 2022 first rounder! Now we have 3 first round picks next year.
Pick 21 comes up, and CB Caleb Farley is there! I snatch him up. Two 2022 plus Caleb Farley to replace PP21, and still in Round 1!
Ok, Round 2. I trade our 48 to GB for pick 61 plus their 2022 1st rounder. I have to throw in our 2022 3rd rounder.
Next, I give 61 plus our 2022 4th and 5th round picks to Tampa for their 64th and 2023 first rounder!
I then trade 64 and our 161 to the Jets for 66 and 86.
Then 66 and 142 to the Giants for 75 and their 2023 1st round pick!
Ok...done trading.
With 75 I pick Creed Humphrey who is somehow available.
With 79 and 86 I pick two DE/DT’s Tyler Shelvin and Levi Onwuzurike. I love interior linemen.
In three rounds, I got Farley, Humphrey, 2 decent Dline prospects, 3 2022 first round picks (so we have 4), and 2 2023 first round picks (so we have 3). For that we give up our 2022 3rd, 4th and 5th.
I have a screenshot of the final mock, with a A grade. If it’s this easy, make me GM!
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Post by Chirpn’time on Feb 22, 2021 18:18:29 GMT -7
PFF simulator Trade down #16 for #22, #53, and #126 #22 JC Horn CB May not be day one starter, but get into rotation. #49 Jabril Cox ILB Day one starter to replace Hicks, more length and speed perfect pair for Simmons. #53 Creed Humphrey C Day one starter #79 Spencer Brown RT/RG Keep Jones at RT, Spencer is strong enough to play RG ability to pull and get to second level and solid pass protection #126 Isreal Mukuama CB/S At 6’4” he can cover big WRs and TEs and likes to tackle big slot CB/S #161 Rhomandre Stevenson RB System RB thunder to Edmonds Lightning #242 Labryan Ray DT 6’ 5” 295LB 3/4 DE rotational help depth if Phillips is cut. Would never fall this nice in real world. Second try #16 Surtan CB, #49 Humphrey C, trade down, #123 Brown RT/RG, trade down, #150 Mukuamu CB, #161 Hufanga S/ILB, #203 Patterson RB, and #242 M Johnson DL/3-4 DE Third try...surprise player drop trade down, no first rounder, #40 Humphrey, #48 Melefonwu CB, #72 N. Harris RB, #79 Tyron Edge, #113 C. Surratt ILB, #161 Scary Terry WR, #242 Tonga NT Love your draft but Creed Humphrey should go higher than #53 Lets do your trade on the trade value chart to see if it is feasible Cardinals #16th pick overall is worth 1,000 trade value points Titans #22nd overall pick is worth 780 trade value points Titans 53rd pick is worth 370 trade value points So you are -150 points in your trade and still want the 126th pick which is worth 46 points -196 points deficit which is equivalent to the 79th pick in the draft If I was the Titans General Manager Jon Robinson. I would not do the trade as we would be overpaying too much to go up 6 spots Compare it to a trade in last years draft Minnesota Vikings trade their #25th pick to San Francisco for their 31st, 117th and 6 pick difference like your trade Here were the results Vikings #25th worth 720 points 49ers 31st worth 600 their 117th worth 60 and 176th worth 21 points That left a 39 point deficit which is much closer. walterfootball.com/draftchart.phpAs you picked out, I didn’t think to use value chart. Now I will raise my game and get realistic. Thanks for pointing out about the trade value.
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Post by FLCardinalFan on Feb 22, 2021 18:44:31 GMT -7
Love your draft but Creed Humphrey should go higher than #53 Lets do your trade on the trade value chart to see if it is feasible Cardinals #16th pick overall is worth 1,000 trade value points Titans #22nd overall pick is worth 780 trade value points Titans 53rd pick is worth 370 trade value points So you are -150 points in your trade and still want the 126th pick which is worth 46 points -196 points deficit which is equivalent to the 79th pick in the draft If I was the Titans General Manager Jon Robinson. I would not do the trade as we would be overpaying too much to go up 6 spots Compare it to a trade in last years draft Minnesota Vikings trade their #25th pick to San Francisco for their 31st, 117th and 6 pick difference like your trade Here were the results Vikings #25th worth 720 points 49ers 31st worth 600 their 117th worth 60 and 176th worth 21 points That left a 39 point deficit which is much closer. walterfootball.com/draftchart.phpAs you picked out, I didn’t think to use value chart. Now I will raise my game and get realistic. Thanks for pointing out about the trade value. One thing that you and I don't know is the actual true value a team places on a player. You get off the wall teams like the Raiders used to be when Al Davis ran the team. He would make a trade for some WR he loved and it didn't matter about trade value charts. Another thing I feel is that QBs bring a premium in a trade. Lets use the example of Mac Jones from Alabama the scenario is all the top QBs are gone in the top 10 except for him. I have seen him mid 1st round to as low as a late 2nd round. But he will bring more if some team wants him bad enough. Here is TEAM A (Not Cardinals) Team A GM says: Reason 1 He is the next best QB and will be gone when we draft again in round 2 ( Presents a value trap) GM nervous he wont be there so lets trade up to the Cardinals or whoever to get him. Then you (CARDINALS) might get that extra 3rd rounder. Reason 2 We need a QBOF and he is as good as Fields and Tua in the eyes of some GMS. Reason 3 All Fails he is our backup. < loser GMs do this
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Post by belac44 on Feb 22, 2021 21:37:03 GMT -7
I don’t see the top 3 guys being here when we pick, but I wasn’t going to pass on it.
16: R1 P16 CB Patrick Surtain - Alabama 49: R2 P17 DL Daviyon Nixon - Iowa 79: R3 P15 RB Javonte Williams - North Carolina 161: R5 P16 G Sadarius Hutcherson - South Carolina 242: R7 P16 WR Dez Fitzpatrick - Louisville
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Post by Chirpn’time on Feb 22, 2021 23:50:14 GMT -7
Keeping it simple. 16 Creed, 49 trade with Rams 57, 140, and 210 ( trade as per value chart favors LA) 57 Jacoby Stevens S, 79 B St-Jusre CB, 140 J Anderson RG, 210 M Johnson DE, 242 J Watson OLB.
This is a no nonsense achievable draft. Starting C Creed, Starting RG Jack, who is the best recruit in Tex Tech history always played RG and knows the offense. No greater impact for offense than giving K1 his O-line.
DE who is a pass rush specialist. NT who is run specialist.
Now that the lines are firmed up, next is holes in defense.
Jacoby Stevens is 6’3” 230 LB twin to Simmons he was a WR who got flipped to defense. Jacoby has stout lower body and long arms is a 4.3 to 4.4 40 guy. He can play CB and safety, but he is now ILB with Simmons. He is solid in run defense.
Jamar Watson. Nickname Boogie. Solid person, solid football player. OLB 6’3” 245 versatile he can rush the passer and has good cover skills. Reddick’s replacement.
Not going to put any rookie CB on island. Benjamin may be gone at 79 if so S Brown, K Taylor, Mukuamu, T Williams, or Wade.
Going with St-Juste tall smooth cover corner he is the tall WR and TE CB
Cut Hicks, Phillips, and Kennard and sign a FA CB with the cap savings. Let Reddick walk. Sign Vallejo, Gardeck, and Golden (as long as his salary is under $5,000,000 per year) Fitts if Golden doesn’t pan out. Gardeck is a two or three year contract at or below $5,000,000 per year. Gardeck and Golden contracts cannot interfere with signing a FA CB.
KK will have room to sign RB of his choice.
Back up draft/ no trade: 16 Creed, 48 J Stevens, 79 B St-Juste, 143 J Anderson, 242 J Watson.
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Post by cardinalsins on Feb 23, 2021 11:23:41 GMT -7
This site is pretty trade happy. Love seeing the possibilities of trading down in the first
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Post by Chirpn’time on Feb 23, 2021 15:01:23 GMT -7
If the one in a million chance Trey Lance falls to 16. The Cards could clean house on team in need of QB. The other factor if to keep in mind if Creed was the first priority is Steelers at 24 may have C as their number one priority. System fit is a must, more so this year, the question of limited spring camps is still up in the air. The limited 2020 season limited play time for entire pool of prospects. Plug and play players and linemen on both sides are going to be the direction most teams will go this year. The player association limitations do not favor project players. The league better figure out an avenue for clubs to develop players outside the roster who can be protected from other teams so each club has incentive to build practice squad players without losing them, there are some player designations that serve that purpose, however this needs to expanded with larger practice squads. Each team needs 8-10 players to keep in rotation with injuries and longer seasons in future. It benefits players also, who would never get time and effort invested into developing them. Even giving team ability to carry extra journeyman QB so team play doesn't suffer as bad with injuries to key players. Also opportunity for older players who may not be ready to retire keep on payroll and even evolve into player coaches. Leftwitch comes to mind how Steelers kept him in organization and groomed him in coaching.
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Post by devongent on Feb 23, 2021 15:38:55 GMT -7
The league better figure out an avenue for clubs to develop players outside the roster who can be protected from other teams so each club has incentive to build practice squad players without losing them, there are some player designations that serve that purpose, however this needs to expanded with larger practice squads. This is an old hobby horse of mine, but I've given up on it and had to accept the current structure as 'the ways of the NFL'. - My hope is that an expanded season of 17 games + more teams in the play-offs might indeed lead to expanded rosters. Importantly, I would say that players in the first two years post-draft should not be able to be nabbed by other teams. In return these younger 'developmental players' could be provided with a proper guaranteed minimum salary contract to allow them stability through this period. - Teams could elevate any of the men onto the main roster at any time and (perhaps) there is a market where individuals can be swopped (on a one-to-one basis) between football teams. - The status quo doesn't encourage clubs to take a longer term view.
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Post by Chirpn’time on Feb 24, 2021 15:05:26 GMT -7
Back up draft/ no trade: 16 Creed, 48 J Stevens, 79 B St-Juste, 143 J Anderson, 242 J Watson. SB Nation is coming around Round 1 (with trade down to acquire a 3rd or 4th round pick): Cardinals take one of the top guards here: Slater, Vera-Tucker or Davis. All three of them are excellent. Round 2: Cardinals take one of the top centers here: Landon Dickerson (Alabama), Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma), Josh Myers (Ohio St.) or Quinn Meinerz (Wisconsin-Whitewater). Round 3: Cardinals take one of the top remaining RBs here: Trey Sermon (Ohio St.), Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma St) or, Jermar Jefferson (Oregon St.). Note: if it just so happens that Javonte Williams in on the board at pick #48 (Round 2), the Cardinals can take him and hope that one of the top 4 centers is still on the board at pick #79 —-because chances are one of them will. But, the way the Cardinals want to bang the football between the tackles, if Javonte Williams is already gone in Round 2, wouldn’t Trey Sermon be a superb fit in Round 3? I am also a huge fan of Jermar Jefferson —- that baller is tough as nails. Round 3/4 (trade acquisition): Cardinals take the best ILB prospect here in Pete Werner (Ohio St.), Chazz Surratt (UNC), Jabril Cox (LSU), Tony Fields (WVU), Baron Browning (Ohio St.), Dylan Moses (Alabama), K.J. Britt (Auburn). The three I love here are Werner, Surratt and Fields. Round 5: Cardinals take one of the top remaining CBs in Tay Gowan (UCF), Rodarius Williams (Oklahoma St.), Tre Brown (Oklahoma), Thomas Graham, Jr. (Oregon), Trill Williams (Syracuse), Keith Taylor (Washington), Shakur Brown (Michigan St.), Kary Vincent (LSU), Israel Mukamu (South Carolina), Camryn Bynum (California), Deommodore Lenoir (Oregon), Amry Thomas (Michigan), Marco Wilson (Florida). There is some good depth and talent here. Round 7: Cardinals take a kicker here: Jose Borregales (Miami), Riley Patterson (Memphis), Alex Kessman (Pittsburgh), Evan McPherson (Florida), Keith Duncan (Iowa), Blake Haubell (Ohio St.). I am holding to my thoughts based on scheme fit and needed impact and player projection as per draft value. I can't come off Creed being most impactful and scheme fit, he is a taker at 16, don't mess around unless he is gone. Two the ILB is as pressing as CB with the ability to get more of a plug and play pair with Simmons, personally I think Jacoby Stevens LSU would be a little on the light side, but better in pass coverage, speed and blitz than Hicks and Jacoby is a quick learner and loves a challenge, doesn't back down and is willing to add weight to play ILB, he is a alpha male and natural leader. Third preferably a taller CB and at 79 there should be a good one, 79 trade down to get additional late round or move up at 143. Fourth he is projecting at 5-6 round Jack Anderson Texas Tech natural RG solid performer for TT and scheme fit and K2 coached, Fifth @242 went deep into FA territory with OLB Jamar Watson Kentucky, 6'3" 244LBs very productive pass rusher, great kid, community leader, well worth giving a shot. The Vera-Tucker is so 2019-2020 projection for AZ when every expert thought Hump was a bust. Left tackle is good move to Center then RG at least RG we have players who can play.
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Post by devongent on Feb 24, 2021 15:41:37 GMT -7
Round 3/4 (trade acquisition): Cardinals take the best ILB prospect here in Pete Werner (Ohio St.), Chazz Surratt (UNC), Jabril Cox (LSU), Tony Fields (WVU), Baron Browning (Ohio St.), Dylan Moses (Alabama), K.J. Britt (Auburn). The three I love here are Werner, Surratt and Fields. You talked me in to the merits of Pete Warner so don't give up on the guy. - I thought Jabril Cox was your star man (but, maybe I'm mistaken). Round 3 appears the right spot to take a very good ILB player...
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Post by Chirpn’time on Feb 24, 2021 15:56:53 GMT -7
Round 3/4 (trade acquisition): Cardinals take the best ILB prospect here in Pete Werner (Ohio St.), Chazz Surratt (UNC), Jabril Cox (LSU), Tony Fields (WVU), Baron Browning (Ohio St.), Dylan Moses (Alabama), K.J. Britt (Auburn). The three I love here are Werner, Surratt and Fields. You talked me in to the merits of Pete Warner so don't give up on the guy. - I thought Jabril Cox was your star man (but, maybe I'm mistaken). Round 3 appears the right spot to take a very good ILB player... I love them, but my love doesn't dictate AZ's best interest. I am all over the best ILB at a steal in third to fifth round. Washington, Bucanon, in 2021 Jacoby Stevens.
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Post by cardinalsins on Mar 11, 2021 20:50:01 GMT -7
I'm starting to see new results at our typical pick locations. Looks like the sites running the mock simulators are adjusting their big boards a bit.
One pick that I consistently see is Christian Darrisaw.
He's a good OT, check out his breakdown below.
With Beachum possibly leaving, is he worth considering? Should we be using Josh at RT? More importantly, is Darrisaw good enough for a team wanting to trade up for?
The Colts are losing Castonzo to retirement. Will they trade up?
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Post by cardinalsins on Mar 11, 2021 21:02:59 GMT -7
For round 2, I see a whole lot of Landon Dickerson. It also happens to be the area that I attack OL or CB, depending on the first round pick/trade down. If it wasn't for his injury history, he would be projected to be picked significantly earlier. The dude is a beast. I was usually learning towards Humphrey in this round, but now I'm thinking that the injury history is worth the risk here. I think the ceiling is higher, but more negative variability due to injury history.
What do you guys think, is he worth the risk?
For a second round, how do you feel about Elijah or Rondale Moore? Neither really fits the tall receiver that I was initially looking for, but they do one thing really well, and that's getting wide open. Not sure how I feel about Kirk, because I'm not sure if he likes to run up the middle. These guys do though...
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Post by Chirpn’time on Mar 11, 2021 22:51:10 GMT -7
Love L Dickerson, how can he hold up better physically in NFL?
I think first three rounds this year in particular need to hit. The floor will be more important than ceiling.
As it stands no 4 round pick, he would have to fall way down to round 5.
That said first round seems to point RB. CB round two.
CJ not signed to extension yet will force team to pick OLB by or before round three. Hubert KSU may get picked as soon as second round, but if the right CB is available in second than they pick W Hubert in third if he is there.
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