Official Game Day Thread - BUF @ ARZ November 15, 2020
Nov 11, 2020 5:56:02 GMT -7
thomas cat, ThrowItToFITZ, and 1 more like this
Post by End Zone on Nov 11, 2020 5:56:02 GMT -7
Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Forum’s 9th Game Day thread of 2020. The Arizona Cardinals record is 5 wins and 3 losses at the halfway point of the 2020 season. The record is a positive change in team fortunes compared to the midway point of 2019. The Sunday afternoon Game Day Thread is dedicated to military Veterans and to a historic event, “Sherman’s March to the Sea,” which began at Atlanta, GA, on November 15, 1864, and ended weeks later at Savannah, GA, on December 21st.
Why did I select a Veterans theme and a U.S. Civil War historical event for this GDT?
First, I am sitting in my comfortable home office chair on this Veterans Day holiday, November 11th, writing the next GDT, and feeling completely happy, safe and free. I am aware that many people have made the ultimate sacrifice for our way of life and our country, thus providing me an opportunity to do almost anything I choose with my free time such as today. Many of you know that I am a retired US Navy veteran. I also know that many Forum members served in the Armed Forces and some of you also are retired veterans. I thank every veteran for their dedication, sacrifice and honorable service to the USA. Without our collective commitment, and the selfless commitments of millions of men and women veterans that also served since the birth of our country, there would be no ‘land of the free’ and no United States of America.
Second, that famous U.S. Civil War event of late 1864 reminds me of the Arizona Cardinals challenges in the second half of the 2020 season. For context, I offer the following background (source Wikipedia). Sherman's March to the Sea, also known as the Savannah Campaign or simply Sherman's March, was a military campaign conducted through Georgia from November 15, 1864, until December 21st, by Major General William Tecumseh Sherman of the Union Army. The campaign began with Sherman's battle-hardened and grizzled troops leaving the captured city of Atlanta on November 15th and ended with the capture of the port of Savannah on December 21st. Sherman’s 62,000-man Army of the Tennessee applied the General’s "scorched earth" policy en route Savannah, destroying Confederate Home Guard military targets and industry, infrastructure and civilian property, disrupting the Confederacy's economy and transportation networks, and taking multiple war trophies. The General’s campaign broke the back of the Confederacy and helped lead to its eventual surrender months later in the spring of 1865. Sherman's decision to operate deep within enemy territory, his troops living off the land and without Union supply lines, is considered to be one of the major campaign successes of the Civil War, and is considered by some historians to be an early example of modern total war.
On Sunday and for the next 8 weeks, the Cardinals will embark on their version of “Sherman’s March to the Sea,” sometimes living off the land and laboring with extended supply lines (e.g., injuries, COVID IR, and away games). Like the Union Army in 1864, the Cardinals are presented with huge challenges and opportunities to rise up and crush all AFC and NFC adversaries. Can the Cardinals take the next 8 battles, win the war, and take home the trophies? Let me be perfectly clear. Sherman’s Union army took some losses on the march through Georgia. The Georgia Home Guard adversary did not lay down arms or flee into the hills and swamps. The Guard had nowhere else to go. Their backs were up against the sea. The Rebels fought hard for their homes and families. Many Rebels were taken prisoner, were wounded, or died. Sherman’s total war was a very brutal process, causing major suffering and pain, and creating great anxiety throughout the remaining Confederacy. In the end, Sherman’s campaign delivered a total victory.
For the Arizona Cardinals, the next 8 games will involve numerous battle-hardened and grizzled teams fighting hard for jobs, homes, and families. If the Cardinals are to fully succeed on their march, the team must plan and execute much better than at the previous 8 games. The Cardinals must surprise, exploit and dominate each adversary. The Cardinals must be brutal (within the NFL’s player safety rules). Only total war breaks an adversary’s will to fight. Rise Up, Red Sea. March On, Red Crush. Fortune Favors the Bold.
Buffalo Bills 61-Year History. The Bills were an original AFL franchise, were established in 1959, and began play in 1960. The Bills joined the NFL when the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. Like the Cardinals, the Bills won 2 Championships (1964-1965) prior to the AFL-NFL merger. After the merger, the Bills became the only NFL team to win four consecutive AFC Championships (1990-1993) and then lose four consecutive Super Bowl games in heartbreaking fashion. The Bills have made a total of 15 NFL playoff appearances. The Bills last made the playoffs in 2019, barely losing to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. The team is owned by the Pegula family since 2014. General Manager is Brandon Beane. Head Coach is Sean McDermott. HC McDermott was the Carolina Panthers DC from 2011-2016, until hired by the Bills in 2017. His regular season record at the Bills is 32-25 (.542). From 1960-1972, the Bills played home games at the old War Memorial Stadium. The team moved to the new outdoor Bills Stadium in 1973, renowned for many “lake-effects” snow games. Team headquarters is at Orchard Park, NY. Team colors are Royal Blue, Navy Blue, Red, and White. The team mascot is Billy Buffalo. The fight song is “Shout.”
The Bills team nickname originated from a contest to rename the then AAFC Bisons in 1947. A winning entry suggested “Bills,” based on the famous western frontiersman, “Buffalo” Bill Cody. Mr. James Breuil, owner of the Bisons football team and the Frontier Oil Company of NY state, liked the idea of linking a frontiersman’s image with his football team and the Frontier Oil Company associated with western NY state. When the AAFC Bisons joined the AFC in 1960, the team formally adopted the nickname “Bills.” The former red bison team and helmet logo was adopted in 1962 and retired in 1973 for the new Buffalo-flash design.
What makes the Bills team click today? QB Josh Allen earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week for week 9 of the current NFL year, for his outstanding passing performance v. the NFC West Division Seahawks on November 8th: 31 of 38 for 415 yards and a 138.5 passer rating. Josh Allen is huge, 6’5” and 235lbs, throws right, and just 24yo. His is completing 68.9% of passes in 2020. He has thrown for 2587 yards, 8.2 yards avg per pass, with 19 TDs and 5 INTs. Josh Allen is also a running QB, rushing 25 times for 118 yards in 2 games v. the Jets this year. He played NCAA DI football for the University of Wyoming prior to being drafted by the Bills in 2018. Of note, the Cardinals will be going up against a 3rd year QB that already has 1 playoff game experience, in 2019. Josh Allen led the Bills (10-6) v. Texans at an AFC playoff duel on January 4, 2020. Josh Allen does not rattle easily.
The 1st place AFC East Buffalo Bills are currently a red-hot team, winning 3 games in a row: 18-10 over the Jets, 24-21 over the Patriots, and 44-34 over the Seahawks. The Cardinals also beat the Jets and the Seahawks earlier this year and will play the Patriots soon. Through 9 games in 2020, the Bills strengths compared to adversaries: 216 v. 206 1st downs, 54/107 v. 48/101 3rd down conversions, 3/3 v. 5/10 4th down conversions, 6.0 v. 5.8 yards avg per play, 2493 v 2151 yards passing, 24 v 20 sacks, 28 v. 27 TDs. Roughly speaking, the Bills performances are on a par statistically with the Cardinals. The big difference is the W/L record (Bills have 2 more wins and 1 fewer loss). Following the Bills @ Cardinals game, the Bills have their Bye week, then resume play at home v. the Chargers on November 29th.
Cardinals and Bills History. The two teams rarely see each other on opposite sides of the line of scrimmage. In 60 years, the teams faced off just 11 times, the last time being 2016. The Cardinal record v. the Bills is 4-7. When playing at home, the Cardinals v. Bills record is a respectable 3-3. When the two teams last played in 2016, the final score was Bills 38, Cardinals 18. Both teams have undergone complete makeovers since their last meeting.
Now let’s focus on the current game that will be played at SFS on November 15th at 4:05 p.m. ET. I warned Forum members last week about the opportunistic and fast-rising Miami Dolphins. This week, no Cardinals fan should disregard the Bills (7-2) potential to put up lots of points very fast. This Bills team finds ways to finish and win games when it is not favored. The Cardinals were favored by 5 points over the Dolphins, had them down by 7 points in the 4th quarter, and still lost by a FG. If the same mistake-prone and poor play-executing Cardinals team takes the field on Sunday, I cannot see the Cardinals beating back the Bills’ hot scoring machine. If the Cardinals play error-free football, they have a good chance to win a close game. Current Vegas money has the Cardinals at home at -1.5 points. O/U is a healthy 56, meaning everyone expects much scoring.
Here are some interesting facts to consider that may indicate Cardinals situation advantages v. the Bills Offense and Defense units.
First, Josh Allen lately was feasting on weak defenses and connecting on very long passes for fast scores. The Cardinals have allowed only 22 passing plays of 20 or more yards so far this season, and only 4 of those plays were 40-plus yards, meaning, the DBs generally defending okay and keeping receivers in front of them.
Second, the Cardinals are averaging 34 points per game in the last 4 games, up from 24 points per game in the first 4 games. Kyler Murray is being asked to carry more and more of the scoring load and he is coming through in spades.
Third, the Cardinals had several starters missing in the last two games v. SEA and MIA. Unless COVID-19 protocols wreck team plans, the Cardinals should have several Defensive starters return the active roster on Sunday.
Fourth, Kyler Murray totaled 1211 yards passing and scored 9 TDs in the last four games. He faces a Buffalo unit that is struggling to match last year’s performance standards. The Bills defense is giving up over 7 yards per pass attempt, and allowing 68% pass completions. Hopkins, Kirk, and Fitzgerald should have monster days receiving if Kliff Kingsbury turns Kyler’s arm lose.
Lastly, the Bills struggle to get their Defense off the field, allowing 47.52% 3rd down conversions (23rd NFL rank). Due largely to Kyler Murray’s RPO abilities, the Cardinals Offense is converting nearly 46% of 3rd down opportunities. The Cardinals will move the chains plenty on Sunday.
Final injury reports and active rosters will be provided on Sunday morning. As of now, November 11, Bills key injuries are: Brian Winters C (Questionable), Josh Norman CB (Questionable), Mitch Morse C (Questionable), Tre'Davious White CB (Questionable). Cardinals key injuries are: Kenyan Drake RB (Questionable), Dre Kirkpatrick CB (Questionable), Kevin Peterson CB (Questionable), Devon Kennard LB (Questionable), Byron Murphy Jr. CB (Questionable).
PutMeIn’s BOTTOM LINE: I errored badly last week, calling QB Tua T the Dolphins “Achilles Heel.” The reverse was true. He was the team’s Holy Grail, constantly bailing out the WRs and TEs with pinpoint passes and timely runs. Similarly, QB Josh Allen is the Bills leader and doer. His favorite WR target is S. Diggs, 63 receptions, 813 yards, 3 TDs. If Josh has a bad QB day, the Bills will have a bad team day. Josh doesn’t have many bad QB days now, the last being on October 13th when the Bills stunk up the field losing to the Titans at TN, 42-16. By the way, the Bills are 3-1 on the road this year. Yes, you read that right. 3-1. We do know that Kliff Kingsbury likes high-risk football, which I do find exciting. The Debbie-Downer is that Kliff’s players do not execute as well as they can and should, leaving Kingsbury looking like a HC fool when players commit the dumbest of mental mistakes at the worst times. I will stick my neck out again and go with the Cardinals to win at home on Sunday, giving -1.5 points to Buffalo and the Vegas guys. My game O/U is 10 points over Vegas, sitting at 66 now. My O/U might be too conservative given both Offenses and Defenses. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has BUF at 41.3% winning, ARZ at 58.4% winning, an 0.3% tie.
Sunday afternoon weather at Glendale, AZ, on November 15th, will be seasonable with kickoff temperature at 77F, mostly sunny skies, and low humidity at 18%. The SFS roof may be open. Limited fan attendance is permitted.
Game kickoff is at 4:05 pm ET. Watch on CBS and NFL’s Red Zone. Listen to local AZ radio and mobile devices at Sirrus FM.
#4 Craig Wrolstad, will be the NFL Referee (White Hat) for the game. He is a highly respected official, working for the NFL since 2003 and as a Referee since 2014. He was named Alternate Referee for Super Bowl LII, was a field judge at Super Bowl XLVII, and was Referee at the 2020 Pro Bowl. Wrolstad also worked as a Referee at NFL Europe for several years and at the Arena Football League. Craig is 55 years-old and from Washington State.
Let’s all have a fun and entertaining game at our last home game at State Farm Stadium for several weeks. Immediately after Sunday’s game, the Cardinals need to prepare for the Seattle Seahawks at their house on Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals dropped a headscratcher v. the Miami Dolphins last week and the Cardinals definitely cannot afford to drop a second game in a row v. the Bills. The NFCW Division lead is on the line. This is another great test game as the Cardinals begin the second half of the season. No major injuries to any players. Go Cardinals! Win #6. Keep pace with those danged Seahawks.