Post by xandogeek on Sept 13, 2024 13:53:43 GMT -7
I went back over our first drive against the Bills to get a better handle on what we were doing and what did and didn’t work and put together a painfully long and boring summary/analysis. Read at your peril.
Play 1
1st and 10 from our 30.
We used 11 personnel in a balanced (2x2) formation with Murray under center and Connor lined up behind him. We did something I’ve argued that we ought to be doing: we faked a jet sweep to Dortch a split second before Connor took a hand-off right up the middle.
Result: +3
Play 2
2nd and 7 from our 33.
We went to 12 personnel in a 2x2 formation with our TEs in a wing on the right, our WRs in a slot left, and Murray under center with Connor behind him. McBride motioned from his wing position across the formation before releasing as a receiver. Murray faked to Connor going left of center, pulled back to pass, and quickly dumped the ball back to Connor on a screen pass led by our RG and C. In short, we faked a run to fake a pass so we could dump off a screen.
Result: Worked like a charm: +22
Play 3
1st and 10 from the Bills’ 45.
We stayed with 12 personnel and a 2x2 formation, this time with a TE on each wing with a WR lined up outside on the line. Murray was in the shotgun with Connor lined up behind him as a tailback. We again faked a run and then dumped the ball to Connor, this time right over the middle, which we had cleared out by having our TEs run out patterns and our WRs run hooks.
Result: It worked; +9.
Pontification: These play action passes worked very well, but both were designed solely to get the ball to Connor on short passes. We were not even looking at other receivers or trying to get the ball downfield (a more typical purpose of play action). Unusual, but this was a way to get Murray started on some easy pitch-and-catch.
Play 4
2nd and 1 from the Bills’ 36.
We used 13 personnel (yup, three TEs) in a 3x1 formation with all three TEs on the right, our lone WR split left, and Murray back under center. We ran a straight shot up the middle.
Result: +1, first down.
Pontification: On 2nd and 1 from the opponents 36? I’m not sure I would have called this as though it were third (or 4th) down. Extremely conservative.
Play 5
1st and 10 from just inside the Bill’s 35.
We stayed with 13 personnel, this time in a 2x2 formation with two TEs in a wing on our left, a TE on a wing outside our RT, and a WR split right. Murray was in shotgun, with Connor lined up as a tailback. We ran left with the TEs on our wing blocking down and McBride (on our right wing) and our RG pulling across to lead. Unfortunately, Reitman (on our left wing) got pushed back into our pulling LG and Connor had to go inside. I think this would have worked better from under center.
Result: +1.
Play 6
2nd and 9 from the Bill’s 34.
We went to 12 personnel in a 2x2 formation but moved Reitman from a wing off our RT to a wing off our left LT, creating a 3x1 formation with Dortch and two TEs in a bunch on our left, a WR split wide right, and Murray under center with Connor behind him. We ran Connor off right tackle, using a fake reverse to Dorch as window dressing. I think it would have been better if we had faked a jet sweep to Dortch before handing off to Connor; that might have caused defensive missteps instead of the nanosecond of hesitation created by the belated fake to Dortch.
Result: +3, hello third down.
Pontification: Every play to this point was designed specifically to get the ball to Connor. It’s not as though we have no other talent on offense.
Play 7
3rd and 6 from the Bills’ 30.
We went to 11 personnel and a 2x2 formation with a TE and flanker on our left and two WRs in a slot on our right. Murray was in the shotgun with Connor to his left. We ran a quick slant to Dortch (who was in the slot on our right). We finally went to someone other than Connor!
Result: +8, a legit third down strike.
Play 8
1st and 10 from the Bills’ 22.
We went with the unexpected: 21 personnel (two RBs, one TE and 2 WRs). We had a flanker and TE in a wing on our left and Harrison split wide on our right. Murray was in the shotgun with Demercado on his left and Connor on his right. Then we motioned Connor left, creating an overload that left Harrison isolated all by himself on the right. Seems like an odd choice for 1st and 10, but great idea!
Result: Murray and Harrison embarrassingly failed to connect. Oops. This should have worked.
Play 9
2nd and 10 from the Bills’ 22.
We went back to 11 personnel, with Harrison split wide left and a bunch on the right (McBride in a wing off our RT with two WRs just outside him). Murray was in the shotgun again, with Connor on his right. Maybe we were hoping to isolate Harrison again, but what we did was run left with our center pulling while McBride ran a bubble route on the backside (with our WRs blocking in apparent anticipation of a bubble screen). My best guess is that this was an RPO with a bad pre-snap read, because McBride was wide open on the bubble screen and – to the extent Murray was reading anything on the hand-off (as opposed to pre-snap) – he was focused on the backside rusher. Regardless, Connor got the ball and got nailed by a DE charging between our LT and pulling center.
Result: -3. Ugh!
Play 10
3rd and 13 from the Bills’ 25.
We stayed in 11 personnel and lined up in a 3x1 formation isolating Harrison wide left while we had a TE and two WRs on the right. Murray was back in the shotgun with Connor on his left. The Bills had two guys on Harrison, so we should have had a numbers advantage on the right. Unfortunately, Murray bailed early, either because he’s prone to that or because no one was open. Either way, he scrambled, went into a slide well short of the first down, and took a hit in the ribs that drew a drive-saving flag.
Result: First down on zebra laundry.
Off-point pontification: There has been a lot of discussion about this call, and – after going over all the replays again – my sense is that it was a judgment call that could reasonably have gone either way. I think there would have been no call if Murray hadn’t taken such a hard hit, because the leg to Murray’s ribs was almost certainly accidental. On the other hand, Murray had given himself up and it wasn’t clear that the defender’s contact was unavoidable (it looked more avoidable on some replays than others). If it hadn’t looked like Murray had hit a tree trunk (or if he hadn’t given himself up) it would definitely have been a bad call. I suspect that the ref resolved doubt as to the need for deterrence by applying the inverse of the “no blood no foul” principle.
Play 11
1st and Goal from the 9.
We stayed in 11 personnel and again isolated Harrison to one side, this time by starting out with Murray in shotgun and an empty backfield with our TE and two WRs on our left, and Harrison and Connor split right. Then Connor shifted into the backfield on Murray’s right. Harrison was doubled again, and Murray audibled to a run with Connor going left.
Result: +4.
Pontification: Note the repeated efforts to use formations and motion to get Harrison isolated in one-on-one coverage, and the fact that – after we tried that once and failed on a misread – the Bills responded by leaving two guys in a position to cover Harrison (which is why we were not throwing him the ball). This gave us the advantage of numbers opposite Harrison, so in that way he was contributing while appearing to do nothing. This was one of the first ideas I had about what we could do with Harrison.
Play 12
2nd and Goal from just inside the 5.
We got fancy, coming in with 12 personnel and then lining up in the shotgun with an empty backfield. Connor was split wide right again, so we may have seen something from the previous play that we liked. Regardless, the defense was plainly discombobulated by 12 personnel deployed as though we had four WRs. It nevertheless came to nought, because Murray again bolted early and missed both TEs wide open in the direction he was running (McBride at about the 2 ½ yard line and Higgins in the end zone).
Result: Murray ran for essentially no gain (actually a small loss).
Pontification: This was creative and should have worked, but on 2nd and goal from inside the 5 I’d have been more inclined to try to pound the ball in or use play action. Murray’s apparent tendency to bolt early is a concern. And I don’t like shotgun on 1st and goal from the 9 or second and goal from the 5.
Play 13
3rd and Goal from the 5.
We went back to a 2x2 formation with a wing right, slot left, and Murray in shotgun with Connor on his right. Connor went out to create a three-man pattern with the guys on the wing, but a defender got his hand up and forced Murray to pull the ball down and escape before hitting Wilson for the TD.
Result: A TD off a broken play.
Overall assessment:
We did some good things that worked or should have worked but didn’t for reasons that ought to be fixable. We were creative at times with our personnel packages and formations but seemed to be overly-conservative at times and made some odd choices from a down and distance standpoint.
We had six called runs for only ten yards but should be able to do much better than that if we run more plays from under center, improve our execution, and loosen defenses up by making better use of play action. On the passing side we had two designed dump-offs to Connor but only one clean pass completion to a WR (the slant to Dortch). The other four called passes resulted in a missed connection with Harrison, two unsuccessful scrambles (though one ended in a key penalty), and one completion on a broken play (the TD). So Murray had five true drop-backs and only got the ball off cleanly twice. The other three times he was under duress, getting the ball off once and failing to do so the other two times. Better use of play action would help, but we need better pass protection and Murray needs to do a better job handling pressure when it comes.
Play 1
1st and 10 from our 30.
We used 11 personnel in a balanced (2x2) formation with Murray under center and Connor lined up behind him. We did something I’ve argued that we ought to be doing: we faked a jet sweep to Dortch a split second before Connor took a hand-off right up the middle.
Result: +3
Play 2
2nd and 7 from our 33.
We went to 12 personnel in a 2x2 formation with our TEs in a wing on the right, our WRs in a slot left, and Murray under center with Connor behind him. McBride motioned from his wing position across the formation before releasing as a receiver. Murray faked to Connor going left of center, pulled back to pass, and quickly dumped the ball back to Connor on a screen pass led by our RG and C. In short, we faked a run to fake a pass so we could dump off a screen.
Result: Worked like a charm: +22
Play 3
1st and 10 from the Bills’ 45.
We stayed with 12 personnel and a 2x2 formation, this time with a TE on each wing with a WR lined up outside on the line. Murray was in the shotgun with Connor lined up behind him as a tailback. We again faked a run and then dumped the ball to Connor, this time right over the middle, which we had cleared out by having our TEs run out patterns and our WRs run hooks.
Result: It worked; +9.
Pontification: These play action passes worked very well, but both were designed solely to get the ball to Connor on short passes. We were not even looking at other receivers or trying to get the ball downfield (a more typical purpose of play action). Unusual, but this was a way to get Murray started on some easy pitch-and-catch.
Play 4
2nd and 1 from the Bills’ 36.
We used 13 personnel (yup, three TEs) in a 3x1 formation with all three TEs on the right, our lone WR split left, and Murray back under center. We ran a straight shot up the middle.
Result: +1, first down.
Pontification: On 2nd and 1 from the opponents 36? I’m not sure I would have called this as though it were third (or 4th) down. Extremely conservative.
Play 5
1st and 10 from just inside the Bill’s 35.
We stayed with 13 personnel, this time in a 2x2 formation with two TEs in a wing on our left, a TE on a wing outside our RT, and a WR split right. Murray was in shotgun, with Connor lined up as a tailback. We ran left with the TEs on our wing blocking down and McBride (on our right wing) and our RG pulling across to lead. Unfortunately, Reitman (on our left wing) got pushed back into our pulling LG and Connor had to go inside. I think this would have worked better from under center.
Result: +1.
Play 6
2nd and 9 from the Bill’s 34.
We went to 12 personnel in a 2x2 formation but moved Reitman from a wing off our RT to a wing off our left LT, creating a 3x1 formation with Dortch and two TEs in a bunch on our left, a WR split wide right, and Murray under center with Connor behind him. We ran Connor off right tackle, using a fake reverse to Dorch as window dressing. I think it would have been better if we had faked a jet sweep to Dortch before handing off to Connor; that might have caused defensive missteps instead of the nanosecond of hesitation created by the belated fake to Dortch.
Result: +3, hello third down.
Pontification: Every play to this point was designed specifically to get the ball to Connor. It’s not as though we have no other talent on offense.
Play 7
3rd and 6 from the Bills’ 30.
We went to 11 personnel and a 2x2 formation with a TE and flanker on our left and two WRs in a slot on our right. Murray was in the shotgun with Connor to his left. We ran a quick slant to Dortch (who was in the slot on our right). We finally went to someone other than Connor!
Result: +8, a legit third down strike.
Play 8
1st and 10 from the Bills’ 22.
We went with the unexpected: 21 personnel (two RBs, one TE and 2 WRs). We had a flanker and TE in a wing on our left and Harrison split wide on our right. Murray was in the shotgun with Demercado on his left and Connor on his right. Then we motioned Connor left, creating an overload that left Harrison isolated all by himself on the right. Seems like an odd choice for 1st and 10, but great idea!
Result: Murray and Harrison embarrassingly failed to connect. Oops. This should have worked.
Play 9
2nd and 10 from the Bills’ 22.
We went back to 11 personnel, with Harrison split wide left and a bunch on the right (McBride in a wing off our RT with two WRs just outside him). Murray was in the shotgun again, with Connor on his right. Maybe we were hoping to isolate Harrison again, but what we did was run left with our center pulling while McBride ran a bubble route on the backside (with our WRs blocking in apparent anticipation of a bubble screen). My best guess is that this was an RPO with a bad pre-snap read, because McBride was wide open on the bubble screen and – to the extent Murray was reading anything on the hand-off (as opposed to pre-snap) – he was focused on the backside rusher. Regardless, Connor got the ball and got nailed by a DE charging between our LT and pulling center.
Result: -3. Ugh!
Play 10
3rd and 13 from the Bills’ 25.
We stayed in 11 personnel and lined up in a 3x1 formation isolating Harrison wide left while we had a TE and two WRs on the right. Murray was back in the shotgun with Connor on his left. The Bills had two guys on Harrison, so we should have had a numbers advantage on the right. Unfortunately, Murray bailed early, either because he’s prone to that or because no one was open. Either way, he scrambled, went into a slide well short of the first down, and took a hit in the ribs that drew a drive-saving flag.
Result: First down on zebra laundry.
Off-point pontification: There has been a lot of discussion about this call, and – after going over all the replays again – my sense is that it was a judgment call that could reasonably have gone either way. I think there would have been no call if Murray hadn’t taken such a hard hit, because the leg to Murray’s ribs was almost certainly accidental. On the other hand, Murray had given himself up and it wasn’t clear that the defender’s contact was unavoidable (it looked more avoidable on some replays than others). If it hadn’t looked like Murray had hit a tree trunk (or if he hadn’t given himself up) it would definitely have been a bad call. I suspect that the ref resolved doubt as to the need for deterrence by applying the inverse of the “no blood no foul” principle.
Play 11
1st and Goal from the 9.
We stayed in 11 personnel and again isolated Harrison to one side, this time by starting out with Murray in shotgun and an empty backfield with our TE and two WRs on our left, and Harrison and Connor split right. Then Connor shifted into the backfield on Murray’s right. Harrison was doubled again, and Murray audibled to a run with Connor going left.
Result: +4.
Pontification: Note the repeated efforts to use formations and motion to get Harrison isolated in one-on-one coverage, and the fact that – after we tried that once and failed on a misread – the Bills responded by leaving two guys in a position to cover Harrison (which is why we were not throwing him the ball). This gave us the advantage of numbers opposite Harrison, so in that way he was contributing while appearing to do nothing. This was one of the first ideas I had about what we could do with Harrison.
Play 12
2nd and Goal from just inside the 5.
We got fancy, coming in with 12 personnel and then lining up in the shotgun with an empty backfield. Connor was split wide right again, so we may have seen something from the previous play that we liked. Regardless, the defense was plainly discombobulated by 12 personnel deployed as though we had four WRs. It nevertheless came to nought, because Murray again bolted early and missed both TEs wide open in the direction he was running (McBride at about the 2 ½ yard line and Higgins in the end zone).
Result: Murray ran for essentially no gain (actually a small loss).
Pontification: This was creative and should have worked, but on 2nd and goal from inside the 5 I’d have been more inclined to try to pound the ball in or use play action. Murray’s apparent tendency to bolt early is a concern. And I don’t like shotgun on 1st and goal from the 9 or second and goal from the 5.
Play 13
3rd and Goal from the 5.
We went back to a 2x2 formation with a wing right, slot left, and Murray in shotgun with Connor on his right. Connor went out to create a three-man pattern with the guys on the wing, but a defender got his hand up and forced Murray to pull the ball down and escape before hitting Wilson for the TD.
Result: A TD off a broken play.
Overall assessment:
We did some good things that worked or should have worked but didn’t for reasons that ought to be fixable. We were creative at times with our personnel packages and formations but seemed to be overly-conservative at times and made some odd choices from a down and distance standpoint.
We had six called runs for only ten yards but should be able to do much better than that if we run more plays from under center, improve our execution, and loosen defenses up by making better use of play action. On the passing side we had two designed dump-offs to Connor but only one clean pass completion to a WR (the slant to Dortch). The other four called passes resulted in a missed connection with Harrison, two unsuccessful scrambles (though one ended in a key penalty), and one completion on a broken play (the TD). So Murray had five true drop-backs and only got the ball off cleanly twice. The other three times he was under duress, getting the ball off once and failing to do so the other two times. Better use of play action would help, but we need better pass protection and Murray needs to do a better job handling pressure when it comes.
