|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Apr 5, 2024 8:19:14 GMT -7
The 49ers people seem to think they were built through the draft but were they ? they drafted a few good players but they flat out got lucky made some good trades and they still don't have the Qb. take a look for yourself, they gave away a lot of picks for Qb's they kept a middle of the road very average Qb Jimmy G while making trades and signing free agents. Trey lance was a bust where would they be if they didn't get lucky with purdy but he might be the reason they don't win a ring. Anytime you have a shot at a Qb and you need one you take them. I have not seen anything since season 2 of KM that he might be a franchise Qb. We are playing Russian Roulette and relying on the draft. Show me a contender that hasn't made good trades or free agent signings that did it all through the draft. Like I have said in the past people place too much on draft picks. Contenders now got some key players but the whole team is not built through the draft. Most contenders drafted their Qb's and many see that Qb might be what stops the 49ers. Give me any team that is a contender and or won SB's and in most cases they drafted their Qb and didn't build the team through the draft. I would like for someone to point out a contender that was built through the draft we are placing way to much on draft picks. You need to draft a Qb draft a few stars and use free agency and use your picks for players. Everyone thinking you build through the draft they point to the 49ers and I don't get it. www.drafthistory.com/teams/49ers.html
|
|
|
Post by cardinalsins on Apr 5, 2024 10:21:33 GMT -7
I point to the Ravens
|
|
|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Apr 5, 2024 11:43:12 GMT -7
|
|
|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Apr 5, 2024 11:48:26 GMT -7
You can get a few weapons through the draft you need trades free agency to get the job done. vEvery now and then a team strikes gold more times then not they don't. Y ou need to draft stars when it is clear not dart board throws.
|
|
SMITTY
Pro Bowler
Cardinal History Mod
Posts: 1,055
|
Post by SMITTY on Apr 5, 2024 13:17:27 GMT -7
Building a team of hungry "team first" players seems to be the plan. Drafted players and mid level FA's fit that plan. All hungry for a pay day.
|
|
|
Post by cardinalsins on Apr 5, 2024 13:33:33 GMT -7
|
|
|
Post by CardSunsCard on Apr 5, 2024 13:52:40 GMT -7
That's a good find. The Niners also have a decent draft history, especially at QB. Walsh used to talk about constantly drafting QBs, even when you have a good one. I've always favored that approach. Teams that are smart about trading down, often, have the luxury of spending excess lower round picks on QBs. While the picks don't always pan out, you're going to hit bullseyes if you keep throwing darts. And just like what Patriots did following that strategy, you can always deal the extra QB for more picks like they did with Garrapolo. If I ran a team, I would trade down almost every year, and probably draft a QB almost every other year, even if I had a decent one. I'm not talking about using first round picks mind you. Thing is, even if 75% of the lower round QBs fail, 1 out of 4 won't. And since most lower round picks fail anyways, the return on investment is a lot higher on the QB front as we've seen with Purdy, Brady, etc... I also favor this approach because QBs are the hardest to evaluate. So when you blow high picks on QBs, especially top 10 picks, your more likely to set your franchise back for years. Let's think about this another way. What's the % of Top 10 QBs who fail? What's the % of QBs who fail if drafted in round 5 or 6? While the failure rate of the latter is much higher, the cost of missing is nothing. Not when most those picks miss to begin with. So if you're acquiring an extra lower round pick almost every year from trading down, the ROI is so much higher when you hit. Not just from the salary reduction/cap implications of a lower round dude hitting it big. But because if they fail, they are easily cut without cap implications. Put another way. Is it better to spend 2 Top 15 pics over a decade, knowing the failure rate of 1st rounders is still over 50% Or is it better to spend 5 round 5-7 picks over a decade? (knowing 1 of the 5 is probably going to hit) Lower round picks are easy to come up with, especially with trade downs/compensatory pick formulas. This is why I'm constantly posting about taking QBs yet rarely advocate taking one in the Top-10. QBs have such a high miss rate, regardless of round, that it's a lot smarter to follow Bill Walsh's advice and take as many as possible. The other reason to follow this approach, is because Free Agent QBs are so costly. It's better to spend 'lower round' capital, repeatedly, trying to find your guy, at a much lower draft cost, then fill other holes during Free Agency where it's cheaper. Focus Top-10 picks on the positions that have highest replacement cost and are easier to evaluate. Such as CBs and pass rushers. There's also the added benefit of recycling the draft capital. The more you find your lower round QBs, the more likely you find guys like Garappolo or Brady that can be traded. So if your current started is humming along, you can constantly deal the decent back up for yet more capital which can then be parlayed into drafting yet more QBs. The ONLY way this strategy doesn't work out is: 1. Your scouting dept is terrible at QB evals 2. Your QB development team lacks development skills.
|
|
|
Post by cardinalsins on Apr 5, 2024 14:00:26 GMT -7
You have to draft well because of CAP. Specifically, you have to draft well early with premium positions.
Not only did Steve Keim draft like crap, he drafted nonpremium positions and saved poorly with regard to CAP. Hardly any of his players are left on this team, and it shows since we have one if the worst rosters in the league.
For example, you draft tackles, QBs, CBs, DTs. EDGE, and WRs early because that pick saves money. At pick 4 last year...that player's contract was worth $36.9 million. If we draft MHJ, we will save money if he becomes a true WR1. Justin Jefferson is about to make 30+ per year.
|
|
|
Post by knobby on Apr 5, 2024 14:04:54 GMT -7
Not unexpected from SI, and it's from last year, not this year.
A laugh now is SI saying Isaiah Simmons was a best pick. We all know how that went. This is not to say we didn't deserve the ranking though. IMHO
|
|
|
Post by CardSunsCard on Apr 5, 2024 14:12:04 GMT -7
You have to draft well because of CAP. Specifically, you have to draft well early with premium positions. Not only did Steve Keim draft like crap, he drafted nonpremium positions and saved poorly with regard to CAP. Hardly any of his players are left on this team, and it shows since we have one if the worst rosters in the league. For example, you draft tackles, QBs, CBs, DTs. EDGE, and WRs early because that pick saves money. At pick 4 last year...that player's contract was worth $36.9 million. If we draft MHJ, we will save money if he becomes a true WR1. Justin Jefferson is about to make 30+ per year. While I'm on board taking a 1st round WR this year, I disagree that it's worth it most years. It makes sense this year mostly because of lack of elite talent at CB or pass rush. An elite DL almost always overpowers elite OL. And elite CBs almost always shut down elite WRs. I mean, Deon Sanders was going to shut down pretty much every WR except maybe Megatron. So unless the WR is truly generational, not just elite, the elite CB and DL just produces more value. IMO. The only caveat would be rule changes now make it easier for WRs. I bet if someone went through history and looked at the top-5 OTs of all time, and matched them against the top 5 pass rushers, 9 times out of 10, HOF like Lawrence Taylor are going to make mincemeat out of the Nate Newtons of the world. Same for the top 5 CBs vs. the top 5 WRs. Something else to consider is this. Even if you have a top WR, he is only as good as the QB throwing to him. So if you're facing a top CB, that defensive back will pounce on QB mistakes, even 'bait' them. The only reason why a Megatron wasn't going to be shut down by a Deon Sanders is because Megatron didn't just have speed, hands, and route running. He had size which even a taller DB couldn't match up with.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 5, 2024 14:14:20 GMT -7
You have to draft well because of CAP. Specifically, you have to draft well early with premium positions. Not only did Steve Keim draft like crap, he drafted nonpremium positions and saved poorly with regard to CAP. Hardly any of his players are left on this team, and it shows since we have one if the worst rosters in the league. For example, you draft tackles, QBs, CBs, DTs. EDGE, and WRs early because that pick saves money. At pick 4 last year...that player's contract was worth $36.9 million. If we draft MHJ, we will save money if he becomes a true WR1. Justin Jefferson is about to make 30+ per year. Building a roster - 1) Value PREMIUM POSITIONS as stated above. 2) Hit on early draft rounds for premium position players 3) ONLY draft premium positions in Rds #1 - #2 4) Don't acquire Free Agents whom are 30+ and sign to multi-year deals 5) Draft well enough to get players at premium positions to 2nd contract 6) Drafting well and having players the team would like to keep allows the GM to manipulate the CAP via extension maximizing use of certain bonuses and use of Void Years. 7) Must have Coaches who can maximize picks with PLAYER DEVELOPMENT SK mistakes - used 1st rd picks on "off ball" linebackers which no other team valued. Acquiring free agents who are older and get hurt more often. Never drafting well - Hump is the only player of recent drafts who the team wanted to sign to a 2nd contract and pro-rating signing bonuses to lower cap hits.
|
|
|
Post by jeffcardinalfan on Apr 5, 2024 18:21:20 GMT -7
Building a successful pro football team is a combination of everything everyone else already mentioned and you also have to have some luck and some stupidity of other GMS.
Who really thought Ryan leaf was going to be a bust when he was drafted? Who really thought Tom Brady was going to end up being the goat when he was drafted?
It is my humble opinion that the reason why those two players were drafted in the positions they were was because the teams did not do their due diligence. All they watch film and they interviewed them but as I've been preaching a lot on this forum I just don't understand my teams don't really really spend a lot of time and resources you need to know the kind of person there is underneath the uniform. Back to brady. Even though he had the intense burning desire to do whatever was necessary for him to succeed he still had to be lucky. Of course that's because Drew bledsoe got injured. I look at two other quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Dak prescott. No one thought they were going to be what they became. Still remains to be seen it Prescott actually has what it takes to win a super bowl but he's definitely out played his draft status. My point is that until we develop a way to peer inside a draftee's brain we're still throwing darts blindfolded and luck is a factor.
I know this is getting kind of a ramble but raise your hand if you think that Jimmy Johnson's cowboys would have won three super bowls if they hadn't of had that massive trade involving Herschel Walker and the Minnesota vikings? Mike Lynn should be in the cowboys Ring of Honor for making that trade.
Or how about former Cardinal Kurt warner. There was luck involved in Trent Grand getting hurt but the thing I always took about wonders of eventual success was his time in the arena league. From his own mouth came to the words that by playing in that style of football he was forced to make rigs very quickly and to get rid of the ball very quickly. I can actually guarantee you that if I were an NFL owner I would have owned an arena team just to be a minor league for potential future quarterbacks.
Just some thoughts from someone who is anxiously awaiting the draft LOL
|
|
|
Post by Redbirdfan62 on Apr 5, 2024 20:47:25 GMT -7
Is this supporting a narrative ? What I posted was the result of their drafts but still teams are built through the draft just factual correct ? Have those teams done well yes but it was not done through just the draft like some try to promote. All they are showing is the home runs and the teams that have done well not the reality of their drafting. Think about the picks they have spent on Qb like the 49ers and still don't have their Mahomes. Mahomes was the best draft move they ever made not bad getting Tyreek and Kelce but they also picked up good free agents and made good trades. How many Lombardi's do they have because of striking gold at Qb ? How bout the patriots ? Take Brady away what would have happened there ? They to drafted ok but they have done their share of trading for talent and signing free agents, Bottomline the drafts are not dominated by anyone.
|
|
|
Post by cardinalsins on Apr 6, 2024 3:44:11 GMT -7
Is this supporting a narrative ? What I posted was the result of their drafts but still teams are built through the draft just factual correct ? Have those teams done well yes but it was not done through just the draft like some try to promote. All they are showing is the home runs and the teams that have done well not the reality of their drafting. Think about the picks they have spent on Qb like the 49ers and still don't have their Mahomes. Mahomes was the best draft move they ever made not bad getting Tyreek and Kelce but they also picked up good free agents and made good trades. How many Lombardi's do they have because of striking gold at Qb ? How bout the patriots ? Take Brady away what would have happened there ? They to drafted ok but they have done their share of trading for talent and signing free agents, Bottomline the drafts are not dominated by anyone. It shows starting seasons too. A pretty good metric to show that drafting well leads to players...actually playing.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFanQC on Apr 6, 2024 9:22:06 GMT -7
You have to draft well because of CAP. Specifically, you have to draft well early with premium positions. Not only did Steve Keim draft like crap, he drafted nonpremium positions and saved poorly with regard to CAP. Hardly any of his players are left on this team, and it shows since we have one if the worst rosters in the league. For example, you draft tackles, QBs, CBs, DTs. EDGE, and WRs early because that pick saves money. At pick 4 last year...that player's contract was worth $36.9 million. If we draft MHJ, we will save money if he becomes a true WR1. Justin Jefferson is about to make 30+ per year. Building a roster - 1) Value PREMIUM POSITIONS as stated above. 2) Hit on early draft rounds for premium position players 3) ONLY draft premium positions in Rds #1 - #2 4) Don't acquire Free Agents whom are 30+ and sign to multi-year deals 5) Draft well enough to get players at premium positions to 2nd contract 6) Drafting well and having players the team would like to keep allows the GM to manipulate the CAP via extension maximizing use of certain bonuses and use of Void Years. 7) Must have Coaches who can maximize picks with PLAYER DEVELOPMENT SK mistakes - used 1st rd picks on "off ball" linebackers which no other team valued. Acquiring free agents who are older and get hurt more often. Never drafting well - Hump is the only player of recent drafts who the team wanted to sign to a 2nd contract and pro-rating signing bonuses to lower cap hits. One additional HUGE mistake the Cards former GM made - NEVER, EVER, EVER -- spend a 1st round pick and then try to make the player learn a new position especially at a position where innate INSTINCTS are so important (e.g. LB - Safety - WR). The Reddick and unfortunately probably the Zaven Collins picks are painful reminders of the above axiom holding true. LB's who have incredible physical tools (e.g. Isaiah Simmons) but below average instincts are doomed to failure.
|
|