Aris, you are most likely correct…It’s all over…for 2024. We have about a 10% shot at the playoffs and that feels high.
So where are we after Year 2 of the rebuild?
13 teams have allowed less points than the Cardinals.
14 teams have scored more than the Cardinals.
We have a bit better than average offense and a bit better than average defense, and I expect a final record of 8-9 or 9-8, which is exactly where I and many of the regular posters had us pegged before the season began. Those records were based on coming from a 4 win first year rebuild without our QB1 half the year, and what we hoped could occur with a healthy Kyler and a successful draft class, as we hadn’t done much in free agency. No big losses and no big gains in free agency. The injury loss of Hump negated by the add of Jonah Williams was the biggest change.
So, big picture, we got what we thought we’d get. Sort of. I and others justifiably expected the biggest gains to be on offense, primarily due to the return of Kyler with a full healthy off-season, the addition of several rookies on offense including MHJ and RB phenom Benson, and the strength of our run game at the end of the 2023 season. Not much was expected from a defense that had been trash in 2023 and hadn’t gained much, especially after our first round Dline pick went down to injury pre-season. Yet the defense faired, by the numbers, as well as our offense!
We find ourselves still questioning our offense in several areas. 1) Is Kyler the man? 2) Can MHJ and the WR room in general elevate their play in 2025? 3) How much is the fault of the OLine? and 4) How much is the fault of the OC?
I don’t think anyone is questioning our RB or TE rooms.
We find ourselves with questions on defense in several areas as well. 1) What is Budda’s value to this team in terms of a new contract? 2) can this young group of CB’s continue to improve to be a strength or do they need one more stud cover corner (
this one is for flash)? 3) How do we fix a demonstrably awful interior Dline so that it both collapses the pocket and shuts down the run? 4)Likewise, how do we fix the LB corps, especially OLB, to creat pressure and generate sacks and rushed passes?
I think the coaching on defense should be applauded for improving our results without much to work with.
Each of these questions deserve their own forum categories moving into the off-season. My opinions below:
Offense:
1) Kyler may or may not be our guy, but 2025 is not the year to cut bait. The reason is the contract, the lack of replacement options, and most importantly the fact that our team still has needs required to help any QB be successful. IMO the smartest moves in off-season relative to QB would be to improve the supporting cast and perhaps draft another developmental QB they like or sign a cheaper vet as backup should they feel Tune is not the backup answer. Then evaluate QB and make that decision after the 2025 season or perhaps even one year later.
2) I believe MHJ and the WR room can elevate. They are young and upcoming with regards to Harrison and Wilson. Both have shown ability. Both need to work with Kyler like crazy in the off-season and especially young MHJ needs to step out of his father’s and other’s expectations and focus on defeating his weaknesses, some physical in strength and some mental in toughness and aggressiveness when on the field. Finally, add a legit slot WR upgrade over Dortch and the WR room will be strong.
3) I know some including you Aris think the Oline has performed well. I do not, and I spend games watching how quickly pockets collapse or holes are or are not opened more than I keep my eyes on Kyler or the RBs. I like many would like Kyler to be under center more often, maybe 50-50, but while that helps the run game regardless, it doesn’t work when the pocket collapses, ESPECIALLY for a,guy with the size limitations of Kyler Murray. He should be used as an occasional runner, but 75% of his runs shouldn’t be because he has to escape pressure. The inability to create a large and lasting pocket, along with some very untimely holding and false start penalties, IMO led to most of the “bad Kyler” decisions. The fix? This is a tough one for as soon as 2025. Kyler and the locker room like Froholdt, and I do too, but he’s no stud. The guard positions are still an issue. We did draft some who haven’t shown much yet. Do they next year, or do we attempt upgrades instead? I think we hope for both.
4) I think we have a slight problem with Petzing. He doesn’t drive me crazy with play-calling the way KK used to, but many members have discussed his lack of doing a few things that would seem smart given Kyler’s abilities, his game plans (no McBride until the 2nd half?), and his annoying refusal to cover his mouth when calling plays. These should all be fixable by someone as smart as he is supposed to be, no?
Defense:
1) I’ve been one of the loud mouths saying we should have considered trades for Budda and that I don’t want to see two safeties as our #2 and #3 highest cap players. That said, I think we have to keep Budda now. To let him walk without trade compensation, considering his strengths and leadership, would be a loss we wouldn’t fill any cheaper. We do have to account for his one weakness, which is coverage, but that is doable. I just hope we can do a two year contract similar to Conner’s that is fat enough to keep him happy but not long enough or steep enough to really do contract damage to the team.
2) I think we continue developing what we have in Thomas, Melton, Williams, Clark and Jones. Hopefully a healthy Jones becomes an asset. I see Melton getting better with experience. Williams is already a stud.
No high draft pick or free agent necessary yet, sorry Flash!
3) DL, the biggest issue on this team IMO and I can’t spend enough time on it here. I’ll just say I would try to get the biggest free agent impact player here as well,as spend my top draft pick here, and then hope DRob becomes the player we drafted him to be.
4) Oline is a bit of a wait and see as I think we have some potential with Ojulari on return and young Xavier Thomas, alongside Collins and newbie Browning. I think all will benefit from an improved pocket collapsing interior Dline. Fix the interior Dline first, then adapt.
