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Post by xandogeek on Sept 7, 2024 10:32:09 GMT -7
I was skimming through some K1 stats. The Cards with K1 ran play action about 18% of the snaps, He had a bit better throwing percentage at shotgun and I liked that when the team was behind with 4 minutes or less he had his highest throwing percentage at about 71% completion. The Cards in 2023 with K1 only had about 8% of the snaps that were RPO and K1 was over 71%completion rate. The 2023 second half of the season was laying K1's foundation and the staff and K1 have the information to lean on what he does better. McBride, Wilson and MHJ are much better than the top three WR or receiving options in 2023. The OL is upgraded despite some members failing to acknowledge it and add Tipp and Benson. There will be 50/50% between run and pass and with MHJ the play action can only get better as well as causing hesitation with the opposing LBs. It is a good thing there are some safety changes to force us to use better English. I can be snarky even with the limitations and I enjoy humor over the negative verbiage. Thanks again for the content. Thanks, much appreciated. What stats were you looking at? I haven't seen such granular numbers on Murray, but they sound interesting. I like your optimism, but we have new starters at most of the positions on our offense, and there are an unusual number of uncertainties about our personnel. I think we probably do have better receiving talent than we did last year, but a lot depends on a guy who still hasn't played a legit snap in the NFL. I hope the O-line is improved, but we've got guys who are new - or have changed positions - at three of the five starting OL positions and have not had a chance to see the result. I'm also hopeful about Benson and Reiman, but they are untested rookies. I'm not being negative: I'm hopeful, but very anxious to see the goods! |
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Post by belac44 on Sept 7, 2024 11:03:47 GMT -7
Can thank FLCF for that!! I'll join the trend belac (Agent 44). Agent 36,.... calling in. I dig it! |
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Post by xandogeek on Sept 7, 2024 11:08:27 GMT -7
It will be interesting to see . . . Good piece xandogeek I am hoping the load is shared around and James Conner's usage is managed. If so, there is no reason why he cannot extend his career here. He is a big influence on the whole team and we need player's of his desire and character in that locker room. 1. How often will we see two-TE personnel packages on run downs? Our depth chart assumes 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs), but there has been a lot of speculation about the potential for 12 personnel (2 TEs) on run downs. With Tip Reiman’s reported ankle issue we may not see a lot of 12 personnel this Sunday, but my guess is that we will see more when Reiman is 100% and has gained a little experience. Don't sleep on Travis Vokolek. He's a little lighter than Reiman, but a little taller. - I think they are both on the roster for a reason, to compete with and complement each other. Excellent points. Sometimes a player is worth more than we can see on the field, and that is true in Connor's case. Keeping Vokolek was an interesting roster decision. My guess is that we are envisioning a 12 personnel package with a classic in-line TE who is a strong run blocker (Reiman) and another - sometimes called an "H-Back" - who can block but is more of a threat as a receiver (McBride). In that case, Higgins (who is small for a TE) would be a good back-up for McBride at H-Back but not for Reiman at TE, where Vokolek would be a better fit. This would explain the decision to keep four TEs, with the 4th being someone like Vokolek. |
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Post by xandogeek on Sept 7, 2024 11:19:46 GMT -7
I would like to see what RB Benson can do now rather than wait, wait, and wait. Agreed, put him out of the field and let's see how he goes. Absolutely. As the OP suggested, I think the best way to do this would play Benson in run down situations. That way he would be able to focus on part of the playbook instead of having to master everything right away. Put him in the best position to succeed at what he is already best at and let him develop from there. |
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Post by Dry Heat on Sept 7, 2024 11:24:08 GMT -7
I was skimming through some K1 stats. The Cards with K1 ran play action about 18% of the snaps, He had a bit better throwing percentage at shotgun and I liked that when the team was behind with 4 minutes or less he had his highest throwing percentage at about 71% completion. The Cards in 2023 with K1 only had about 8% of the snaps that were RPO and K1 was over 71%completion rate. The 2023 second half of the season was laying K1's foundation and the staff and K1 have the information to lean on what he does better. McBride, Wilson and MHJ are much better than the top three WR or receiving options in 2023. The OL is upgraded despite some members failing to acknowledge it and add Tipp and Benson. There will be 50/50% between run and pass and with MHJ the play action can only get better as well as causing hesitation with the opposing LBs. It is a good thing there are some safety changes to force us to use better English. I can be snarky even with the limitations and I enjoy humor over the negative verbiage. Thanks again for the content. Thanks, much appreciated. What stats were you looking at? I haven't seen such granular numbers on Murray, but they sound interesting. I like your optimism, but we have new starters at most of the positions on our offense, and there are an unusual number of uncertainties about our personnel. I think we probably do have better receiving talent than we did last year, but a lot depends on a guy who still hasn't played a legit snap in the NFL. I hope the O-line is improved, but we've got guys who are new - or have changed positions - at three of the five starting OL positions and have not had a chance to see the result. I'm also hopeful about Benson and Reiman, but they are untested rookies. I'm not being negative: I'm hopeful, but very anxious to see the goods! I do not think Jonah Williams is an upgrade over DHump, though DHump didn’t look great last year either. And we have sophomore Paris switching over to LT. C and RG are the only guys playing at the same position as last year on the Oline, with LG Brown a newcomer as well, and he’s not that great. I think they will struggle as a unit early on. Hopefully the young Olinemen drafted will develop…Gaines and Adams specifically. Next season free agency and draft could be 100% Oline and Dline/OLB and I’d be happy. |
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Post by MT Diesel on Sept 7, 2024 11:36:49 GMT -7
I was skimming through some K1 stats. The Cards with K1 ran play action about 18% of the snaps, He had a bit better throwing percentage at shotgun and I liked that when the team was behind with 4 minutes or less he had his highest throwing percentage at about 71% completion. The Cards in 2023 with K1 only had about 8% of the snaps that were RPO and K1 was over 71%completion rate. The 2023 second half of the season was laying K1's foundation and the staff and K1 have the information to lean on what he does better. McBride, Wilson and MHJ are much better than the top three WR or receiving options in 2023. The OL is upgraded despite some members failing to acknowledge it and add Tipp and Benson. There will be 50/50% between run and pass and with MHJ the play action can only get better as well as causing hesitation with the opposing LBs. It is a good thing there are some safety changes to force us to use better English. I can be snarky even with the limitations and I enjoy humor over the negative verbiage. Thanks again for the content. Thanks, much appreciated. What stats were you looking at? I haven't seen such granular numbers on Murray, but they sound interesting. I like your optimism, but we have new starters at most of the positions on our offense, and there are an unusual number of uncertainties about our personnel. I think we probably do have better receiving talent than we did last year, but a lot depends on a guy who still hasn't played a legit snap in the NFL. I hope the O-line is improved, but we've got guys who are new - or have changed positions - at three of the five starting OL positions and have not had a chance to see the result. I'm also hopeful about Benson and Reiman, but they are untested rookies. I'm not being negative: I'm hopeful, but very anxious to see the goods! Searching on Pro Football Reference site is a good source to search for some of the not so written about stats. One thing I liked about some of the 2024 FA signings is White, Nichols and Jones are from the same draft class as well as friends and Nichols and Jones are very close…that matters as far as playing as a unit for each other as well as the closeness of White and Wilson. Reiman is a solid blocker that is his specialty and RB Benson will be at least okay as a rookie RBs are one of the easiest transitions from college to the NFL. Rabbit may be the real steal as well as Robinson even if he misses 4-6 games. Having Robinson later in the year is more important to the team. Stille was rather low in the 2024 rotation and the Bucs signed him off the Cards PS…that is a good sign…that didn’t happen in 2023. The DL in 202 was primarily made up by PS quality players…not so much in 2024…JG has a real 6 man NFL quality DL rotation and that is significant. Look for the 2024 CBs to be real active in the run defense as well. |
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Post by xandogeek on Sept 8, 2024 14:08:05 GMT -7
Based on what we saw today, I have some preliminary answers to the questions raised by this thread.
1. How often will we see two-TE personnel packages on run downs?
Answer: Fairly often. In fact, we were using three TEs on occasion.
2. How often will we see our WRs involved in our run game?
Answer: Reasonably often. We used jet motion a number of times without actually running a jet sweep (Dortch did have one carry, but it wasn’t on a jet sweep). We used jet motion to set up inside runs and – in one case – a pitch sweep running opposite the jet fake. We will need to run some actual jet sweeps to keep this kind of thing working, but we were certainly leveraging the threat.
3. Will we be s****d enough to get Murray hit on read options or other designed runs?
Answer: To some extent, yes. I remember only one designed QB run, which worked okay but gave a defender a shot (which he took) at Murray’s legs. With all the scrambling Murray had to do of necessity we did not need to volunteer him for that.
4. Will we be s****d enough to give Connor more than about a dozen carries?
Answer: I have not looked at the numbers yet, but it looked like we were doing the kinds of things we should be doing to spread the load at RB (see below).
4.a. Will we see Benson taking a significant part of the load in run-down situations?
Answer: It looks like it. Benson came in on run downs in our third series and at least sporadically thereafter. This is encouraging.
4.b. Will we see Demercado taking any significant part of the load on passing downs?
Answer: Yes, he was coming in on obvious passing downs throughout the game. I’ll have to look more closely, but he had a nice reception for a first down on our second possession and on our second possession I saw him step up and take out a blitzer, enabling Murray to throw for a first down on third and five. We also used him in two-back personnel packages in a couple of cases, which was interesting.
4.c. Or will we see a non-strategic substitution pattern in which Connor does everything, with Benson spelling him occasionally in the do-everything RB role?
Answer: No. As indicated above, our substitutions were strategic, suggesting that the plan is to try to keep Connor’s load sustainable.
I'll try to take a closer look at how some of this worked out, but my initial reaction is surprise that we were doing so many of the things I thought we should be doing.
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Post by xandogeek on Sept 8, 2024 19:02:40 GMT -7
On further review . . .
While I liked some of the things we were trying to do, our running game was not good.
The stats show 25 carries for 124 yards – which doesn’t sound bad – but when you subtract Murray’s numbers you end up with 20 carries for only 67 yards. It’s reasonable to include Murray’s one designed run, which gives us 21 carries for 78 yards, but his other 4 “carries” (producing 46 yards) were the product of one knee-down at the end the first half and three scrambles on called pass plays, none of which I would include in an analysis of our running game.
We came out cooking at the start of the game, but on our first three beautiful possessions we called 21 passes and 14 runs, one of which was the designed run for Murray (which went for 11 yards). The other 13 running plays netted only 42 yards, the longest of which was a 6-yard carry by Benson. What kept us going was Murray’s (mostly short) passing (16-19 for 122 yards) and a key scramble on our opening possession. This was while we were dominating the game. Then the bottom fell out, and it looks like we only ran 7 more legit running plays over the rest of the game. And two of those were bad calls that cost me some tooth enamel.
The problem was not our substitution pattern. Benson did better than Connor on the few carries he got but had no touches in the second half. Similarly, Demercado did well with the opportunities he had but got no carries at all. The problem was that our base running game wasn’t working well, as illustrated by the fact that Connor – besides ending up with more carries than he should have (16) – barely managed 3 yards per attempt. We need to substitute more to keep Connor healthy, and – above all – we need to run the ball better than we did today. It will not make sense to focus on running the ball more until we can figure out how to do it better.
A couple of adjustments seem reasonably obvious.
Don’t have Connor running sweeps. I’m a fan, but the guy is a power runner who needs to keep his shoulders square. To get to the edge we should run jet sweeps that get there fast, with Connor running a fake up the middle. We can then fake the jet sweep and run Connor up the middle more easily and use both the sweep and the run up the middle to get Murray outside opposite the sweep on waggles or bootlegs (which we also need to do to enhance our anemic passing game). Each of these threats enhances the others, making them work better than straight sweeps or shots between the tackles. It looked like we have this stuff in the playbook, we just need to use it.
Make greater use of deception in the run game. A jet sweep series would do that, but there are lots of options including counter plays and – importantly – play-action passing, the threat of which can critically undermine an opponent’s run defense. And I’m talking about real play- action where the defense can’t immediately see who has the ball, not shotgun fakes where the ball is handled in full view of the defenders. Again, we’ve got to have this stuff in the playbook; we just need to use it.
The one thing we shouldn’t do is the thing that worked once today: we shouldn’t have Murray carrying the ball on designed runs. Yes, it works. But it’s not worth the risk.
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