Average number of wins after a Four win season. . . . .

As far as the Cardinals go, they have won 4 games in a season 15 times -- in 1952, '55, '62, '69, '71, '72, '73, '86, '91, '92, '95, '97, '03, '22 and '23. 

The average number of wins for the Cardinals the year following a four win season is. . . .6.21 games. 

The Cards had one three year stretch -- 71, 72, and 73 when they only won four games each year. 

Thank you FightingFalcon and Dry Heat. I enjoyed your research. There's no hiding from the frustrating 4-win season facts since 1952. I'm also not surprised by the 2.21 win bump following a 4-win season. Some people associated with Wall Street call that a "Dead Cat Bounce." Investors avoid dead cats.

Maybe we should call that Cardinals 2.21 win phenomenon a Dead Bird Bounce? BTW, I'm copyrighting that phrase immediately! T-shirts and hats to follow. The fans that jump on a 6-7 win bandwagon for 2024 are among good company. Others pump up the numbers. Me too. Hope springs eternal for major winning team in Cardinals fandom.

Thanks for the quoted ChatGPT citation. I again noticed that the AI (artificial intelligence) tool does a decent job of scraping (my crude word for machine analysis) data and manufacturing readable text for quick consumption. I use ChatGPT and other AI tools more and more for my novel(s) research and writing. The AI tools generate some interesting sentences, but no prose of course. I use other tools to tweak the ChatGPT sentences, adding necessary drama, and thus, I can avoid any potential copycat claims in the future.

Do football fans avoid Dead Birds? I asked CoPilot, another AI tool. The answer:

"Sent by Copilot: It’s an interesting question! While football fans themselves don’t necessarily avoid dead birds, there’s a curious connection between birds and football fields. For instance, Boise State University’s blue artificial turf has been mistaken by geese for a body of water, leading to some unfortunate landings. However, in nature, we rarely see dead birds because they are efficiently recycled and tidied up by other organisms. 🏈🦢"

Huh? I think the term recycled means eaten by maggots.

Okay. . . I asked ChatGPT about eight wins, and the answer: 

"In summary, the average number of wins for teams that won 8 games in the previous season tends to be around 7 to 9 games in the next season. The exact outcome depends heavily on the team's offseason decisions and external factors like injuries and schedule difficulty."

I also checked the Cardinals history the season following an eight win effort. The Cards won eight games in 1922, '23, '66, '70, '83, '94, '11, '17, and '21. The average win total the next year was. . . 6.3 games.  It should be noted that the season following the eight win 2007 season resulted in coming within a minute or two of winning a Superbowl in 2008. 

And to put things in perspective. . . over the course of 103 years the Cardinals have won an average of 5.65 regular season games a year, ranging from 0 on three occasions to 13 on one happy recent season. 

It's hard on longtime Cardinals fans to read this stuff and then get out of bed on Sunday and watch a game. But we do.

I would be remiss not to mention that a mere 50 years ago, Don Coryell in his second year coaching the Cardinals, went from a record of 4-9-1 to a record of 10-4 and a trip to the playoffs, followed by an 11-3 win season with a second trip to the playoffs, followed by another ten win season.

So yes, Hope does Spring Eternal!

If not for Kyler’s injury forcing him to miss half the season last year, I see our team reasonably being a 6-7 win team last year. That was the jump from the 4 win season in 2022 that led to coaching and GM changes. In 2023 we already had the benefit of high draft picks and a shakeup in leadership and culture.

Much of that 2023 draft benefit was wisely negotiated forward to the 2024 draft, as we knew Kyler was out and the new leadership, culture, and offensive and defensive schemes were being installed. This led to an incredible 2 firsts (including MHJ at #4), 1 second, and FOUR thirds.

I see us as a 4 win and then 6-7 win team that is moving in the right direction, now with a year of culture and leadership and schemes in place, a fully healthy and practiced vet QB1, and a big shot in the arm via the draft and some of the defensive FA signings. Better yet, regardless of what happens, we are in great shape cap wise going forward, so can continue moving in the right direction. I’m on record at 8-9 wins and will add that I think we make the playoffs in 2025.

Love your optimism this year! I am not sold on our Oline yet, and think our defense will still need a LOT of work. I do see potential improvements in nearly every position group on defense, and maybe the sum of those small upgrades will move the needle more than I think, but I think we will be winning games with high scoring on offense, not keeping scores low.

I’ll be thrilled if we can carry the strong second half run game over and have an offense that can strike first and grab a several score lead, and then keep our defense off the field with a grinding run game.