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Post by UKcardinal on Jun 22, 2019 18:12:00 GMT -7
Only employed one of the better offensive line coaches in the league and replaced the right hand side of the line with better players.
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Post by bigangelg on Jun 22, 2019 23:25:24 GMT -7
Kind of slow on off season news, so wanted to share this article:
Computer Simulates 2019 NFL Season 10,000 Times & Projects Win Probabilities For All 32 Teams
The article shows all divisions but here are the Cardinals:
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams: 10.1 wins and 78.3 percent postseason chance
Seattle Seahawks: 9.0 wins and 54.9 percent postseason chance
San Francisco 49ers: 7.6 wins and 26.1 percent postseason chance
Arizona Cardinals: 5.4 wins and 3.6 percent postseason chance
Super bowl here wr come!
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itancan
Starter
Still live up in Wa state, On the good ( east ) side of the state.....lol.....That pick is Yodie my
Posts: 941
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Post by itancan on Jun 23, 2019 7:13:06 GMT -7
Anyone who thinks this O line is going to be in the top 20 in the league needs to take their rose colored glasses off. This O line just stinks.
Humph isn't really all that good a LT. Add in the fact he can't stay on the field, and he is WAY over paid and needs to be replaces.
Pugh wasn't that good in NY, and he was absolutely terrible last year with the Cards. Another SK mistake signing this guy.
Center isn't really all that good. No matter who plays the position.
Sweeney is a good run blocker. Not much at pass blocking. Between him and the center Murray should be running for his life.
Gilbert is a decent pass blocker. Not much in the run game. Another SK mistake.
Just where is this a decent O line ?
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Post by cardstj22 on Jun 23, 2019 7:41:53 GMT -7
No simulator has the Cards winning. It's going to be KM playing way greater than anyone imagined he could do, the o-line improving allowing DJ more running room, better blocking. It's going to be about CB where Peterson normally would be, about Niche and how he busted, Allen doing way better than ever imagined. No body is picking the Cards to win but what a shock it would be if they came killing it like KC did last year on offense.
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Post by devongent on Jun 23, 2019 8:00:26 GMT -7
Time will tell as far as the OL is concerned, but going back to the original post...
"Los Angeles Rams: 10.1 wins and 78.3 percent postseason chance
Seattle Seahawks: 9.0 wins and 54.9 percent postseason chance
San Francisco 49ers: 7.6 wins and 26.1 percent postseason chance
Arizona Cardinals: 5.4 wins and 3.6 percent postseason chance"
I think that these 'estimates' smack of lazy journalism and that the projections just don't account for how rapidly things can alter/ a change in fortunes. - I'll give some credit in that the 49ers have bucked this trend. But, I would happily stake a nifty £50.00 (or dollars) double that: Rams do NOT win more that 10 games and that the Cardinals will win at least 6.
Easy to 'blame' the computer, but it depends on what you feed it. - Perhaps it needs a little oiling?...
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Post by devongent on Jun 23, 2019 8:05:58 GMT -7
No simulator has the Cards winning. It's going to be KM playing way greater than anyone imagined he could do, the o-line improving allowing DJ more running room, better blocking. It's going to be about CB where Peterson normally would be, about Niche and how he busted, Allen doing way better than ever imagined. No body is picking the Cards to win but what a shock it would be if they came killing it like KC did last year on offense.
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Post by devongent on Jun 23, 2019 8:15:19 GMT -7
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2019 8:21:12 GMT -7
Im not saying this oline is good, but as we saw under Warner, a very good QB can make a bad oline look good. Obviously Im not saying KM is Warner. But he could be like a Russell Wilson who had a really bad oline in Seattle but because of his abilities he made the oline look better. Heck the year the Cardinals went to the SB, Levi Brown was a starter on the oline. Does anyone believe KM would have similar failure with the oline last year that Rosen had? I wouldnt think so, because of his mobile abilities compared to Rosen who is more suited as a 5 step drop pocket passer who needs time to look over the coverage before making a decision.
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Post by End Zone on Jul 4, 2019 2:47:41 GMT -7
Computer simulations are a nerdy business. I think the value of 10,000 simulations is very low for Forum fans, unless those same fans are placing season-long team bets at Vegas.
I do think the 3.6% chance of taking the Trophy is right. Until this team plays as a team, no one will know how good the team can be. Or how bad it can be. The burden of the team's history of losing does taint the discussions. Some 'group think' is always ongoing and, thus, simulations have baked in faults and bias's.
Also keep this fact in mind. There are 32 teams in the NFL. Only 1 team wins the trophy. 31 teams are losers by definition. So, if all teams are equal (the ideal NFL goal), the odds of the Cardinals winning it all are 3.125%. I didn't need a nerd running 10,000 computer simulations to solve that simple math problem.
Whether 3.6% or 3.125%, there is hope. Go Cards!
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Boomer
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1,358
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Post by Boomer on Jul 4, 2019 6:26:05 GMT -7
Simulations have to be based off past performances and the grades based on those performances. If you are factoring anything from last year's nightmare into the scenario then you are working with some seriously biased algorithms. KM is just the tip of the iceberg that is all the unknowns this team projects going into the season. I would envision that any computer simulation would have to be worst case scenario.
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Post by End Zone on Jul 4, 2019 7:35:17 GMT -7
Simulations have to be based off past performances and the grades based on those performances. If you are factoring anything from last year's nightmare into the scenario then you are working with some seriously biased algorithms. KM is just the tip of the iceberg that is all the unknowns this team projects going into the season. I would envision that any computer simulation would have to be worst case scenario. Boomer, you should post more. You are exactly right! Algo bias is ridiculously high in this NFL game theory and simulation results are worst case scenarios. Ergo, the Vegas book will ignore the simulations and follow the betting money only. Likewise, us fans should ignore the algo simulations...they are just nerd entertainment anyway. P
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itancan
Starter
Still live up in Wa state, On the good ( east ) side of the state.....lol.....That pick is Yodie my
Posts: 941
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Post by itancan on Jul 4, 2019 9:26:55 GMT -7
What all you homers are forgetting. The Rams and Eagles both have a lot more talented rosters than the Cards go at this point. Just who on the Cards offense would start for either of those teams ? Probably no one.
Then to the guy rating the Cards O line. Get a clue.
Humph is less than an average LT. Plus the fact he can't stay free from missing major time. Pugh is one of the worst guards in football. Was rted down in the bottom 5 guards last year. Didn't really do anything his last 2 years with the Giants. AQ isn't much better. Gets pushed back into the QB way to much. Doesn't get any push in the running game. Sweeney I really don't know about. Just his scouting report. Much better run blocker than pass blocker. With him AQ and Pugh Murray will be running for his life. Gilbert is just the opposite of Sweeney. Much better pass blocker than run blocker.
Cards O line flat sucks, and SK really didn't so much to help it out this year. Sure glad Murray has wheels. He is going to need them.
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Post by flash on Jul 4, 2019 12:12:39 GMT -7
Simulations have to be based off past performances and the grades based on those performances. If you are factoring anything from last year's nightmare into the scenario then you are working with some seriously biased algorithms. KM is just the tip of the iceberg that is all the unknowns this team projects going into the season. I would envision that any computer simulation would have to be worst case scenario. I would say here are more of the other unknowns Boomer:
1. Andy Isabella 2. Hakeem Butler 3. KeSean Johnson 4. Kliff Kingsbury 5. Vance Joseph 6. Other new Assistant Coaches 7. Byron Murphy
The addition of the players/coaches above has to be figured into the scenario. And like you said, the scenario I would bet does not include any of the above into that scenario.
8. Will Kevin White be a factor this season?
9. Will the new WR Corp relieve coverage on Larry Fitzgerald? 10. Will opponents be able to play 8 in the box to stop David Johnson when any of these 3 WR's are on the line of scrimmage: Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, KeeSean Johnson or Kevin White? 11. Our Oline. Some of you on here think our Oline will not be good even if the current projected starters stay healthy. Hmm....
I am going to use Kurt Warner as an example here. When Warner was on the Giants, he started 9 games. He was sacked 39 times. Eli eventually took over for him. Eli was sacked 13 times in 7 starts with the same Oline. Perhaps Eli was more mobile just like Murray will be. On that alone, we should expect less sacks than Rosen had last season. Eli won 1 of 7 games. So, was it the team sucked and not the QB or the Oline? Now, in 2001 Warner was sacked 38 times when he was on the Rams. Yet, the team went 14-2. If Warner was sacked that many times, but yet the Rams won 14 games, doesn't show that even with a mediocre or bad Oline, there is the possibility to win plenty of games with a mediocre to bad Oline? The question is, do we have the team to compensate for a weak Oline? That season the Rams had:
Marshall Faulk, we have David Johnson Tory Holt, we have either Kirk, Isabella, Butler, KeeSean or possibly Kevin White Isaac Bruce, we have Larry Fitzgerald Aeneas Williams, we have Peterson, or Murphy/Alford as a fill in till Peterson returns.
The proof is in the pudding, our Oline can be mediocre or even suck and we "chould" (should or could) be able to still win games regardless of Oline quality.
12. Baker to FS and Swearinger to SS. 13. Terrell Suggs 14. Jordan Hicks covering the inside? 15. Chandler less coverage because of Suggs? 16. Christian Kirk, not a rookie anymore.
So Boomer, like you said, those scenarios are more than likely based on past performance which does not reflect our current team. The way I see it, there are way too many intangibles for any kind of computer simulation to predict how good or bad our team will be this upcoming season.
I like the way you challenged that. I have to agree with you.
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Boomer
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1,358
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Post by Boomer on Jul 7, 2019 7:33:04 GMT -7
My curiosity regarding these "simulations" is have they taken into account the recent success of similar air raid offenses being run in the NFL? I am not in anyway comparing the players, coaches or teams for that matter, just the style of offense and if you look at what the Rams, Browns and Chiefs have done the last two years with their hybrid versions of the air raid it's very promising. Knowing that is the style offense we will be running, did that factor into any of the simulations?
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Post by flash on Jul 7, 2019 8:18:37 GMT -7
My curiosity regarding these "simulations" is have they taken into account the recent success of similar air raid offenses being run in the NFL? I am not in anyway comparing the players, coaches or teams for that matter, just the style of offense and if you look at what the Rams, Browns and Chiefs have done the last two years with their hybrid versions of the air raid it's very promising. Knowing that is the style offense we will be running, did that factor into any of the simulations? More than likely NOT.
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